FA League of predicted mega failures update 19

if you just want the top part of this post please see update 20 
p2pindependentforum.com/thread/15383/league-predicted-mega-failures-update

- this one is very long and I am cutting it down but the entire top 40 in this thread
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Well I guess the only recent good news is that the Park Homes fiasco is now closed.

Thus I have updated my list with the below and am currently tidying up my top 40 below
 
9a) 2 Park Homes

7 x £33K loans = £231K lent as first/second/third charges.

First charge 5 x 33K = 165K – recovered 13,840 viz 91.6% loss
Second charge 1 x 33K – recovered – zero - 100% loss
Third charge 1 x 33K – recovered – zero - 100% loss

9b) 5 park homes loans : 3 x £57K = £171K lent as first charge
                                                   = recovery of £24,893.10 viz 85.4% loss!

Overall FS lent £231 + £171 = £402K with overall return of £13,840 + £24,893,10
                                          = 38,733.10/402,000
                                          = 9.6% recovery or 90.4% loss!
Adrian77 prediction:

First charge league1 but actual was Premier league

Other charges 100% loss as predicted

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1) Wimbledon -
    loan of £350K predicted loss 100% - Premier League 
    actual result (barring a miracle) 100% loss

2) Knaresborough
    loan of £725K predicted loss 100% - Premier League
    if my maths are correct actual recovery £151,080 = 21% so a slightly higher return than     predicted here but still a premier league loss.

3) Whitehaven
    loan of £530K predicted loss £490K - Premier League
    if my maths are correct this has returned £13,144 out of £530K = 2.5% recovery!
    prediction 490K loss - actual loss £516,856K .Premier league loss as predicted...

4) 6 Boats
     1 boat - loan of 40K actual loss 54% - League 1
     5 boats £127750.49 predicted loss 90K - Premier League

    predicted overall loss on the 6 boats over £100K - Premier League
    but puzzled with the maths here - looks to me as if £17,449.51 has been recovered to date

5) power and endurance boats
  5a) endurance boat loan of £938K predicted loss over £500K possibly League 1 if lucky
  5b) powerboat 550k/650K  £1.2m predicted loss over 400k £900K - Premier League

6) Barnoldswick
    main farmhouse - £188K - predicted loss 100% - Premier League
                            - £587K - predicted loss £80K - League 2
    cottage - 20K - zero loss !
    cottage - 44K additional loan predicted loss £10K - League 2
    FS failed to have secure a charge against the cottage but will stand behind it

7) South Wales Hotel
  7a) south wales hotel £420K loan predicted loss £120K – league 1 loss
  7b) south wales hotel £100K loan predicted loss £100K 100% – Premier
 
    complete disaster as predicted - buyer is paying balance in 8 x 16K monthly stages
    already signs of slippage here... 

7a) gross loss = £420,000 - £358.213 = £61,787K
               net loss = £420,000 - £179,327 = £240,637 =54%
       loss greater than predicted but still league 1 as predicted

7b) total 100% loss as predicted - I think this is the 3rd 100% property loan loss - amazing!

8) Military and Time Piece Collection 
    £378K loan – predicted loss 150K league 1
    now reduced to £359,843 will clarify when  time - may be a possible buyer here

9) Park Homes
    9a) 2 Park Homes
            7 x £33K loans = £231K lent as first/second/third charges.
            First charge 5 x 33K = 165K – recovered 13,840 viz 91.6% loss
            Second charge 1 x 33K – recovered – zero - 100% loss
            Third charge 1 x 33K – recovered – zero - 100% loss

    9b) 5 park homes loans : 3 x £57K = £171K lent as first charge
    = recovery of £24,893.10 viz 85.4% loss!

    Overall FS lent £231 + £171 = £402K with overall return of £13,840 + £24,893,10
    = 38,733.10/402,000 = 9.6% recovery or 90.4% loss!

Adrian77 prediction: First charge league1 but actual was Premier league
                              Other charges 100% loss as predicted

10) Trains
    very confusing as to what is actually happening - I think a 50% recovery on one loan has     already been made so to simplify I have this one as  loan outstanding of £57K with     predicted loss of £30K cost League 1
           
    update 20.01.19 seems to be just under 75% capital loss I had this one as 50% loss     league one will look at this one again

11) Newcastle student flats
    loan £860K predicted loss £360K– League 1
    
12) Cinema
     called this one 100% wrong - pleased for the investors...
     prediction league 1 actual result 100% recovery plus interest

13) Mixed Use Property, Liverpool
     loan total £625K I am guessing the recovery will be around £0.5m Thus I have this one as      a very generous League 2 i.e. over 25% loss but it could make the Premiership.
     update 26.01.19 actual loss £625K - £440.5K i.e. £184.5k loss = 30% loss - league 2 as        predicted

14) East Ham Property loan
     £77K (second charge) utter disaster predicted loss of over 75% - Premiership
     was for sale, then withdrawn - goodness knows

15) Land Lytham St Annes
    very confusing ! I think we have a first charge on £2.85m and a second charge on £500K. ,     seems to be grossly overvalued...nasty! In fact this one may be a real disaster.
    generous League 2 for the first and a 100% Premier League loss for the second charge
    seems to be linked to Rishton (no 18)

16) VIP
    update 26.12.18 loan partially repaid and is now £52 this one  may came good...

17) artwork : Chagall, Picasso, Impressionists, Lowry, Auerbach, Vases, Artwork
        this just gets worse and worse – still not defaulted and FS claiming there may be a         recovery...  see post by Mousey 
        p2pindependentforum.com/thread/12516/art-arts-sake?page=58
        I guess possibility of recovery - depends if blood is thicker than water!

18) Rishton 
             loan of £610K - this one is now 890 days late!
             a £210K loss and a very generous League 1 predicted 
             seems to be linked to Lytham St Annes (no 15)

19) Norfolk Farmhouse with land
        confusing  however second charge of £50K - by the time the first charge holder has had         his interest and fees etc there is unlikely to be anything left over so Premier League and         could well be a 100% loss

20) Related : 6 bed house in Norfolk
     £350K - think a small to modest haircut here (unless refinancing comes about) so a     predicted £50K loss viz a generous League 3 loss at 15%
    update 02/02/19

     I think £315K has been recovered from property sale so that leaves a £35K shortfall

21) Development plot Liverpool - total loan £0.7m 
    This has a first charge of £600K and a second charge of £100K

    I am giving the first charge a very generous 50% loss viz £300K i.e. League 1 but may well     be Premier League. As to the second charge a belter of a Premier League which looks like     another 100% loss to me (said that before!)

    update 08/02/19 Capital loan has been partially repaid but loan over a year late

22) Reading 2 x 1 bed flats £195K : League 2

    No survey , no verification of PP for conversion and running extremely late
     I predict ,at best, about a £100K loss so a very generous League 2 although if there are     any tenant or planning issues could easily be Premier League with a loss of over £140K

23) Roddymoor
    Main loan £861K : League 3
    Supplementary loan £114 : Premier League
    Predict very generous league 3 whereas supplementary charge – 100% loss.

24) Formby
    Main charge £815K - League 2
    Second charge £180K - Premier League
    Third charge £77K - Premier League

    I can see this one realising ,at best, about £700K net so main loan a very generous League     2 with second and 3rd charge predicted 100% loss 

25) bar in Londonderry

    predicted loss league 2 but a league 1 or higher loss would not surprise me

26) Spilsby
    think FS have been a bit unlucky here but it did not sell at auction for a lot less that the     valuation. I don't think this one will be too bad so giving it a 20% loss i.e. League 3

27) *est *erby Road Liverpool
    update 26.12.18 I think we have 1st charge of £630K and 2nd charge of £198K = £828K
    I predict £600K max and hence league 1 - 30% loss overall with the second charges being     wiped out 

28) B******d Rd, Wirral 3222209939.
    £378K - prime loan of should just about be OK ?
    £100K - second facility of £100,000 - 50% loss i.e. league 2
    £104K - supplementary facility I think 3rd charge of £104K - total loss

    Again may come good as FS have a deed of priority against lender who has a second     charge on another property -

    This is linked to other loans -see excellent mrclondon post
    p2pindependentforum.com/thread/10789 [Mod edit-link update to avoid naming]


29) New Brighton
    first charge 100% recovery
    second charge 50% if lucky
    rest 100% loss

30) V**** Bridge Mill
    30a) first charge £1.25m 0% loss
    30b) second charge £222K quite possibly 100% loss but say 50% loss
    30c) third charge (I think) £28K 100% loss
    update 08/02/19 £222K loan over 4 months late – £38K loan due next week

31) C*elms Quarry
             2867890404 £770K borrowed predicted loss 50% league 1
             3075461346 £830K borrowed predicted loss 50% league 1

32) Shepton Mallet
        I think the following 2 have the same borrower ?

32a) Shepton Mallet Building
           2291716796 £135K borrowed - predicted loss 0%
           841204597 £50K borrowed '' '' 50% league ` possible premier league 

32b) Shepton Mallet land
        7071679925 £265K borrowed predicted loss 50% league 1

33 R***y hall

prediction 50% loss league 1
update 16.02.19 -partial interest paid but loan is nearly 2 months late

34 The *ell
    prediction generous overall 50% loss with later charges being 100% loss league 1/premier
    qq will expand here

35 Barnett
    prediction generous 50% loss
    qq will expand here

36 A***d Road The Wirral
    prediction 25% loss - league 2 but could easily be closer to 50%
    qq will expand here

update 16.02.19 - still waiting for report £830K due 31.03.18...

37 C**den Street Liverpool
        £312K second charge may be re-financed - still waiting - nearly 6 months late
        prediction over 50% loss could well be premier league but say league 1

38 D***ds Green
    called 100% wrong full recovery with interest - predicted league 1
    need to check but I think total loan was £848K

39 West **** R**d Liverpool
    first charge £630K prediction 100% recovery
    second charge over 50% loss league 1

40 Zummerzet Properties
    FS second  charge £344K may just about be OK ?
    FS third  charge £100K have this one as a 50% loss league 2
    QQ need to check the below

    I think the first charge holder has increased his lending so if correct that won't help the
    FS loans... 

    Above over 4 months late - borrower is still renegotiating the first charge - guess may still     come good...