Post by dazp70 on Aug 12, 2019 8:06:11 GMT
I thought that as FC don't now share stats on there loans I would share mine. Together I have over 1000 loans, so this gives a good spotlight on to the actual loan book performance. I have two accounts on ISA and a Classic. Starting on the ISA account, I decided to bail out in June 2019 and I've got the following statistics:-
Started with 558 loans
18 Have been repaid, including some 15 are early repayments)
3 Loans have had their risk band removed totalling a value of £116.75
4 Loans are late and have a total value of £170.80
4 loans are processing at a total value of £285.64
Interest received is £401.64
I am making a pessimistic assumption that all of the problem loans which are risk band removed, late or have processing delays are bad debt. I also assume that the recovery percentage will be zero. This gives me a dodgy debt number of £517.19. After adding in the interest of £401.54, leaves me with a potential loss of £171.55. The time frame of this loss is 2 months. So around £85.27 per month.
My total portfolio size when I started to withdraw was £26,246. So my return rate per month is -0.324 % an annual return of -3.98%. I expect to lose around £1000 in this year, if we assume no amortisation. This drops to a £900 loss assuming that my £85 loss per month drops by 3% per month.
Of my investment I have pulled out £1542 by turning of selling since mid June, around 5.8%. The recovery rate has been boosted by the early repayments.
Some of the late loans look decidedly dodgy, two of them never having made a single payment. Some of the others look like they have gone out of business. The processing loans assumption may be pessimistic as their status was set this weekend. However they are a worry and will be monitored.
************ Now for the Classic Account **********************************
Started with 543 loans
13 are repaid, the majority early repayment
3 Loans have had their risk band removed at a value of £87.60
5 are late at a value of £201.35
1 is processing at a value of £0.46
Interest received is £283.65
So a quick sum gives me a profit of £-5.76. Again I make the pessimistic assumption that all dodgy loans will not be recovered. It's such a small loss that I assume a zero return rate.
Of my investment I have pulled out £1349 by turning of selling since mid June. The portfolio size was originally £20,600. So I have recovered 6.5% of this investment.
my assessment of the bad debt rate is £258/£26242 , 0.98% per month or 11.7 per year. on the ISA account. For the classic it's about 9% per year.
I have place sell orders on both accounts, however I believe that for some time I will be locked in to this investment. My sell order on the classic was on July 3rd. 40 days ago. Which leaves a residual sell time of approximately 45 days. However as sell times are going up and assuming that you only move up the queue by 0.4 days per day then I have another 112 days to wait. So I can expect to see that money in December. For the ISA I won't see the money until mid January.
I may be being a little pessimistic on the ISA. However the picture I have is of zero or even slightly negative returns. I will update this with up to date information at the end of the month. I don't know if the experience of other investors is similar to mine.
Started with 558 loans
18 Have been repaid, including some 15 are early repayments)
3 Loans have had their risk band removed totalling a value of £116.75
4 Loans are late and have a total value of £170.80
4 loans are processing at a total value of £285.64
Interest received is £401.64
I am making a pessimistic assumption that all of the problem loans which are risk band removed, late or have processing delays are bad debt. I also assume that the recovery percentage will be zero. This gives me a dodgy debt number of £517.19. After adding in the interest of £401.54, leaves me with a potential loss of £171.55. The time frame of this loss is 2 months. So around £85.27 per month.
My total portfolio size when I started to withdraw was £26,246. So my return rate per month is -0.324 % an annual return of -3.98%. I expect to lose around £1000 in this year, if we assume no amortisation. This drops to a £900 loss assuming that my £85 loss per month drops by 3% per month.
Of my investment I have pulled out £1542 by turning of selling since mid June, around 5.8%. The recovery rate has been boosted by the early repayments.
Some of the late loans look decidedly dodgy, two of them never having made a single payment. Some of the others look like they have gone out of business. The processing loans assumption may be pessimistic as their status was set this weekend. However they are a worry and will be monitored.
************ Now for the Classic Account **********************************
Started with 543 loans
13 are repaid, the majority early repayment
3 Loans have had their risk band removed at a value of £87.60
5 are late at a value of £201.35
1 is processing at a value of £0.46
Interest received is £283.65
So a quick sum gives me a profit of £-5.76. Again I make the pessimistic assumption that all dodgy loans will not be recovered. It's such a small loss that I assume a zero return rate.
Of my investment I have pulled out £1349 by turning of selling since mid June. The portfolio size was originally £20,600. So I have recovered 6.5% of this investment.
my assessment of the bad debt rate is £258/£26242 , 0.98% per month or 11.7 per year. on the ISA account. For the classic it's about 9% per year.
I have place sell orders on both accounts, however I believe that for some time I will be locked in to this investment. My sell order on the classic was on July 3rd. 40 days ago. Which leaves a residual sell time of approximately 45 days. However as sell times are going up and assuming that you only move up the queue by 0.4 days per day then I have another 112 days to wait. So I can expect to see that money in December. For the ISA I won't see the money until mid January.
I may be being a little pessimistic on the ISA. However the picture I have is of zero or even slightly negative returns. I will update this with up to date information at the end of the month. I don't know if the experience of other investors is similar to mine.
