FC Loan Book Performance (over 1100 loan sample size)

Is it possible to give us an approximate breakdown of how these defaults fall between 2019, 2018, 2017 etc?

As I'm running down since Sept 2017 all my 64 defaults in 2019 are pre 9/2017. The newest being 40962 all the rest earlier. So far in 2019 I am on a loss of £34 over a diminishing 600 loans. Down from a peak of 1650 loans in 9/2017.

Update on getting out of the FC accounts 1st Sept, ISA first



started with 558 loans parts, now I have 549



19 Have been repaid, including some 16 are early repayments

2 Loans are bad debt at £71.36

2 Loans have had their risk band removed totalling a value of £104.09

5 Loans are late and have a total value of £225.34

1 loan is processing at a total value of £25.74



Interest received is £539.26





On my previous pessimistic assumption that all of the problem loans which are risk band removed, late or have processing delays are bad debt. I also assume that the recovery percentage will be zero. This gives me a dodgy debt number of £426.53. After adding in the interest of £539.26, leaves me with a profit of £112.37. The time frame of this profit is 3 months. So around £37.58 per month. I'm making money at about 2% PA on the ISA.



My total portfolio size when I started to withdraw was £26,246. So my return rate per month is now +0.15 % an annual return of +1.86%. I expect to gain around £370 in this year.





Of my investment I have pulled out £2183 by turning of selling since mid June, around 8.1%. The recovery rate is still being boosted by the early repayments.



So at the end of September, the ISA account is picking up slightly
.






************ Now for the Classic Account Sep 2019 **********************************



Started with 543 loans



22 are repaid, the majority early repayment

5 Loans have had their risk band removed at a value of £215.46

5 are late at a value of £204.99

1 is processing at a value of £33.59

Interest received is £371.42





So a quick sum gives me a profit of £-82.69. Again I make the pessimistic assumption that all dodgy loans will not be recovered, or will take so long it doesn't matter. So this is a slight loss, which nearly wipes out my ISA account gains. Overall I'm making nothing.







Of my investment I have pulled out £1937.37 by turning of selling since mid June. The portfolio size was originally £20,600. So I have recovered 9.4% of this investment.





My assessment of the bad debt rate is £258/£26242 , 6.5% per year based on 3 months, on the ISA account. For the classic it's still about 9% per year.





I have place sell orders on both accounts, however it seems clear that he processing times are extending so fast that it's not possible to know when (or if) they will ever get processed. For the July 3rd order, some 60 days ago we have a 100+ day queue now. So 40 days left plus the queue extension rate. So easily another 80 days. I may see my first sale from July at the end of November.


Summary, I have over 40k at risk for very small return. At least I am not losing a lot of money on this (yet).

In the past two months my "net earnings" have dropped from just over £10,200 to £8,600- a loss of £1,600 in two months, and on a portfolio of £120,000 a loss of 1.33% - and an annualised loss rate of 8%. My headline annualised return was in the high 7s, it is now in the low 5s - I really don't believe either of these numbers-I am expecting significant further losses.
Ever since I put half the portfolio up for sale at the start of June I have seen losses mount almost exponentially - I thought for a while this was linked and FC were singling me out for pain- however I see from other's comments that almost everyone has had a truly dreadful summer with FC (other than the CEO and the Board of course, who continue to draw their wages and fees).
My sale order was given on 6/6/19- I stand impatiently in the queue, in the meantime watching losses mount, getting angrier and angrier at FC- and at at myself for getting suckered in to this appallingly run company and for "investing" £120,000 - I would have been better off blowing some of it in Las Vegas- at least there you KNOW you are being taken for a mug.

We held a £20k ISA for a year, and have now sold anything we could through three cycles. According to FC the net earnings are £646 and the annualised return is 4.2%. But that includes £367 still lent to 15 businesses - all of which are default-dodgers. So halve the earnings and return to get the current position, and hope that  something comes back from the £1400 of defaults and default-dodgers over the next five years.