merlin
Minor shareholder in Assetz and many other companies.
Posts: 902 
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Post by merlin on Oct 27, 2014 15:45:24 GMT
Whilst I have very little knowledge about the technology involved or the long-tem economics, I have invested in several through AC. Yesterday I was reading the Business Section of the Sunday Times and came across an article which seemed to imply that "the good days are over." This was further backed up by comments made to the effect that the "big boys" are no longer investing and further more two very large wind farms are now no longer to be built. Does this imply that margins are beginning to be eroded or what? If it dose is this the time to jump ship?
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Post by Ton ⓉⓞⓃ on Oct 27, 2014 15:51:37 GMT
Whilst I have very little knowledge about the technology involved or the long-tem economics, I have invested in several through AC. Yesterday I was reading the Business Section of the Sunday Times and came across an article which seemed to imply that "the good days are over." This was further backed up by comments made to the effect that the "big boys" are no longer investing and further more two very large wind farms are now no longer to be built. Does this imply that margins are beginning to be eroded or what? If it des is this the time to jump ship? I think you're largely right, that's why there's a glut of WT's on site right now, as future ones can only be lower to my understanding. But the deals already done still stand as good/reasonable to my mind
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jonno
Member of DD Central
nil satis nisi optimum
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Post by jonno on Oct 27, 2014 16:16:28 GMT
Whilst I have very little knowledge about the technology involved or the long-tem economics, I have invested in several through AC. Yesterday I was reading the Business Section of the Sunday Times and came across an article which seemed to imply that "the good days are over." This was further backed up by comments made to the effect that the "big boys" are no longer investing and further more two very large wind farms are now no longer to be built. Does this imply that margins are beginning to be eroded or what? If it des is this the time to jump ship? I think you're largely right, that's why there's a glut of WT's on site right now, as future ones can only be lower to my understanding. But the deals already done still stand as good/reasonable to my mind I have invested in solar panels (2 years ago) and it is proving a superb investment BUT based on 3 variables: tying down a competitive cap cost;ensuring efficient panels (mine are Hyundai) and the applicable Feed-in Tariff. This is agreed at the time of installation and guaranteed and index linked for 20 years. The wind deals work in the same way.The reference to the good days being over relates to the falling FIT rates for deals going forward,and unless capital costs come down AS has happened to some extent in the domestic panels market) or efficiency rates substantially increase the investments look decreasingly attractive.So,I don't think it's time to jump ship on current deals but I would advise careful consideration of future offerings.
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shimself
Member of DD Central
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Post by shimself on Oct 27, 2014 16:54:58 GMT
Ukip are against, no surprise there. (They have a nice list of aristo landowners and how much they are raking in)
They are more against wind than solar. I could just about imagine them going into coalition saying forget your promises on FIT, it's too much and we'll scrap it.
What do others think might happen?
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niceguy37
Member of DD Central
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Post by niceguy37 on Oct 27, 2014 17:00:07 GMT
I think you're largely right, that's why there's a glut of WT's on site right now, as future ones can only be lower to my understanding. But the deals already done still stand as good/reasonable to my mind I have invested in solar panels (2 years ago) and it is proving a superb investment BUT based on 3 variables: tying down a competitive cap cost;ensuring efficient panels (mine are Hyundai) and the applicable Feed-in Tariff. This is agreed at the time of installation and guaranteed and index linked for 20 years. The wind deals work in the same way.The reference to the good days being over relates to the falling FIT rates for deals going forward,and unless capital costs come down AS has happened to some extent in the domestic panels market) or efficiency rates substantially increase the investments look decreasingly attractive.So,I don't think it's time to jump ship on current deals but I would advise careful consideration of future offerings. I agree. The existing FIT rates are secured for current deals, but things will be much tighter for new deals coming on-stream. In a way it's a good thing as the gradually declining FIT rates are meant to encourage increasing efficiency.
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Post by tybalt on Oct 27, 2014 17:08:20 GMT
Although the UK Government has ratted on promises 1932 cut in the rate of War Loan from 5% to 3.5% springs to mind I think those commissioned by April 2015 are safe. The reduction in domestic FIT is geared round the decrease in cost of the technology and a very small decrease is predicted for new installation for Jan 2015.
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Post by Ton ⓉⓞⓃ on Oct 27, 2014 21:05:34 GMT
One of the reasons given for the fad of recon turbines is that the manufactures are unwilling to drop their prices. Well a drop in the FIT will increase the pressure on everybody, will that lead to the 7% we see in the Green Energy Income A/c?
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jjc
Member of DD Central
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Post by jjc on Oct 27, 2014 22:42:45 GMT
Recon turbines do have an impact on the cost of deploying in the small-mid wind deals that have so far been typical on AC, that's right Ton. The other factor however is the decreasing cost of capital funding these projects. This extends across most of the renewable technologies (wind, solar, biomass, anaerobic digestion etc), big money is coming in from institutional investors, including pension funds. This will continue to drive down the rates but on the other hand will also make it harder for a potential pesky future govt to renege on any incentive schemes. Renewables are quickly becoming an asset class ideal for long term, inflation-indexed returns. I don't think anyone can say there will never be any political risk to these schemes, but it's less than some of the press would have you believe & in any case isn't there some in everything (interest rates)?
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