FA League of predicted mega failures - summary (FS)

1) Wimbledon - total loan £350K loan 
         predicted loss 100% - Premier League
         actual result (barring a miracle) 100% loss

2) Knaresborough - total loan £525k
    predicted loss (against main house) 100% - Premier League - correct
    second charge on main property £100K - predicted 100% loss - correct
    recovery from 2 x BLT properties    
         £75,160 from sale of 1 of 2 x BLT
         sale of 2nd BLT ongoing - hopefully!

3) Whitehaven - total loan of £530K
    predicted loss £490K - Premier League -correct actual loss £516,939.72
    realised = £13,060.28 = 97.5% loss!

4) 6 Yachts  - total loan 145K
    predicted loss for the 6 boats £100K - Premier League[/span]
    1 boat - loan of 40K sold for £17,449.51 actual loss 54% - League 1
    leaves 105K outstanding loan

    update 30.09.19 3 boats now sold : recovery to date = £36,427.49/145,000 25%
     
5) power and endurance boats 
    5a) endurance boat loan of £938K predicted loss over £500K possibly League 1 if lucky

    5b) powerboats boat loan of £1.2m predicted loss over £900K - Premier League

   update 30.09.19 unbelievable delay - 2 key date deadlines passed 15th Aug and end Sep       and nothing from FS since 30/07/2019. In 10 days time this one will be an incredible 3           years late!

6) Barnoldswick total lent £775K + £64K = £839
    main farmhouse - £775K  first charge £587K
                            -             second " £188K
    above is not looking good!

    cottage - £64K - first charge      £20K - predicted zero loss.
    cottage              additional loan £44K - predicted loss £10K - League 2  
    FS failed to secure a charge against the cottage but will stand behind it

7) South Wales Hotel total loan - 520K
    7a) south wales hotel £420K loan predicted loss £120K – league 1 loss
    7b) south wales hotel £100K loan predicted loss £100K 100% – Premier
    complete disaster as predicted - buyer is paying balance in 8 x 16K monthly stages
    already signs of slippage here - July payment still not received as at 7th Sept 2019
    however hotel is open and trading

  update 30.09.19 borrower is now refinancing so existing payment schedule has gone for a      Burton - latest settlement now hopefully November 2019.

7a) gross loss = £420,000 - £358.213 = £61,787K
     net loss = £420,000 - £179,327 = £240,637 =54%
     loss greater than predicted but still league 1 as predicted
7b) total 100% loss as predicted - I think this is the 3rd 100% property loan loss - amazing!

update 21-09-19 - borrower is looking to refinance hence monthly repayments already late

8) Military and Time Piece Collection
    still trying to make sense of this one as I can't balance it
    predicted loss 150K league 1
    has been partial recovery - to be confirmed I make
    total lent £86,2046.01 with  £47,8745.36 recovered
viz 56% recovered to date

    9a) 2 P*** Homes
        7 x £33K loans = £231K lent as first/second/third charges.
        First charge 5 x 33K = 165K – recovered 13,840 viz 91.6% loss
        Second charge 1 x 33K – recovered – zero - 100% loss
        Third charge 1 x 33K – recovered – zero - 100% loss
    9b) 5 p*** homes loans : 3 x £57K = £171K lent as first charge
        = recovery of £24,893.10 viz 85.4% loss!

        Overall FS lent £231 + £171 = £402K with overall return of £13,840 + £24,893,10
        = 38,733.10/402,000 = 9.6% recovery or 90.4% loss!

        Adrian77 prediction: First charge league1 but actual was Premier league
        Other charges 100% loss as predicted

10) Trains
    very confusing as to what is actually happening - I think a 50% recovery on one loan has     already been made so to simplify I have this one as loan outstanding of £57K with     predicted loss of £30K cost League 1
    update 20.01.19 seems to be just under 75% capital loss I had this one as 50% loss     league one will look at this one again

11) Newcastle student flats
    loan £860K predicted loss £360K– League 1

12) Cinema :called 100% wrong - prediction league 1 actual 100% recovery plus interest

13) Mixed Use Property, Liverpool
    loan total £625K I am guessing the recovery will be around £0.5m Thus I have this one as     a very generous League 2 i.e. over 25% loss but it could make the Premiership.
    update 26.01.19 actual loss £625K - £440.5K i.e. £184.5k loss = 30% loss - league 2 as     predicted

14) East Ham Property loan
    £77K (second charge) utter disaster predicted loss of over 75% - Premiership
    was for sale, then withdrawn - goodness knows

15) Land Lytham St Annes
    very confusing ! I think we have a first charge on £2.85m and a second charge on £500K. ,     seems to be grossly overvalued...nasty! In fact this one may be a real disaster.
    generous League 2 for the first and a 100% Premier League loss for the second charge
    seems to be linked to Rishton (no 18)

16) VIP
    update 26.12.18 loan partially repaid and is now £52K this one may came good...

17) artwork : Chagall, Picasso, Impressionists, Lowry, Auerbach, Vases, Artwork
    this just gets worse and worse – still not defaulted and FS claiming there may be a     recovery

18) Rishton
    loan of £610K - this one is now 890 days late!
    a £210K loss and a very generous League 1 predicted
    seems to be linked to Lytham St Annes (no 15) which is very worrying.

19) Norfolk Farmhouse with land
    confusing however second charge of £50K - by the time the first charge holder has had his     interest and fees etc there is unlikely to be anything left over so Premier League and could     well be a 100% loss

20) Related : 6 bed house in Norfolk
    £350K - think a small to modest haircut here (unless refinancing comes about) so a     predicted £50K loss viz a generous League 3 loss at 15%
    I think £315K has been recovered from property sale so that leaves a £35K shortfall

21) Development plot Liverpool - total loan £0.7m
    This has a first charge of £600K and a second charge of £100K

    I am giving the first charge a very generous 50% loss viz £300K i.e. League 1 but may well     be Premier League. As to the second charge a belter of a Premier League which looks like     another 100% loss to me (said that before!)

    update 08/02/19 Capital loan has been partially repaid but loan over a year late

22) Reading 2 x 1 bed flats £195K : League 2
    No survey , no verification of PP for conversion and running extremely late
    I predict ,at best, about a £100K loss so a very generous League 2 although if there are     any tenant or planning issues could easily be Premier League with a loss of over £140K

update 18.11.20 - looks like a 100% loss due to incorrect paperwork - well that's one explanation

23) Roddymoor
    Main loan £861K : League 3
    Supplementary loan £114 : Premier League
    Predict very generous league 3 whereas supplementary charge – 100% loss.
update 23/10/21 - need checking when I get time
     total borrowed  £1.14m - Primary  loans 50.7% capital returned supplementary loan 100% loss as predicted 
     

24) Formby
    Main charge £815K - League 2
    Second charge £180K - Premier League
    Third charge £77K - Premier League


    I can see this one realising ,at best, about £700K net so main loan a very generous League   2 with second and 3rd charge predicted 100% loss


actual result - main charge including rental income net recovery of £664,622.11 = 81.5% / 18.5% loss

- second charge 100% loss

- third charge 100% loss


25) bar in Londonderry
    predicted loss league 2 but a league 1 or higher loss would not surprise me

26) Spilsby
    think FS have been a bit unlucky here but it did not sell at auction for a lot less that the     valuation. I don't think this one will be too bad so giving it a 20% loss i.e. League 3

27) *est *erby Road Liverpool
    update 26.12.18 I think we have 1st charge of £630K and 2nd charge of £198K = £828K
    I predict £600K max and hence league 1 - 30% loss overall with the second charges being     wiped out

28) B******d Rd, Wirral 3222209939.
    £378K - prime loan of should just about be OK ?
    £100K - second facility of £100,000 - 50% loss i.e. league 2
    £104K - supplementary facility I think 3rd charge of £104K - total loss

    Again may come good as FS have a deed of priority against lender who has a second     charge on another property... 
    This is linked to other loans -see excellent mrclondon post
    p2pindependentforum.com/thread/10789 [Mod edit-link update to avoid naming]
28-08-20 - offer of 500K has been accepted - awiting final figures

place mark to be confirmed
Investors Capital Return in Primary Facility £378,000.00 = 100%

Investors Interest Return in Primary Facility £ 36,343.42 = 24%

(3222209939,1826254035,5749535596,13655 60268,4347447313,2147296927)



Investors Return in Secondary and Supplemental facilities £ 0.00

(1056846866,2431556591,3013580830,2455055751, 1850023361)


yet another complete horlicks and wi#orse than I predicted

end of place mark

29) New Brighton
    first charge 100% recovery
    second charge 50% if lucky
    rest 100% loss

    update 30.09.19 – last sale fell through – possible sale end Nov

30) V**** Bridge Mill
    30a) first charge £1.25m 0% loss
    30b) second charge £222K quite possibly 100% loss but say 50% loss
    30c) third charge (I think) £28K 100% loss

    update 08/02/19 £222K loan over 4 months late – £38K loan due next week

31) C*elms Quarry
    2867890404 £770K borrowed predicted loss 50% league 1
    3075461346 £830K borrowed predicted loss 50% league 1

     update 30.09.19 seems to be progressing well and on budget 


32) Shepton Mallet
    I think the following 2 have the same borrower ?
    32a) Shepton Mallet Building
        2291716796 £135K borrowed - predicted loss 0%
        841204597 £50K borrowed '' '' 50% league ` possible premier league
    32b) Shepton Mallet land
        7071679925 £265K borrowed predicted loss 50% league 1

33 R***y hall
     prediction 50% loss league 1
    update 16.02.19 -partial interest paid but loan is nearly 2 months late

34 The *ell
    prediction generous overall 50% loss with later charges being 100% loss league 1/premier

    FS have reported this one this one as an overall  40% loss
    but I make the final result phase 1 and 2 37% loss and the supplementary loans as 100%     loss :

    loan                   loan K realised K     outstanding K      recovery

    Phase 1             575      420.587      154.413              0.73
    Phase 1 supp     115      0                115                     0.00
    Phase 2             1040    760.682      279.318              0.73
    Phase 2 supp     250      0                250                     0.00
---------------------------------------------------
overall                  1980    1181.269    798.731              0.60

adrian77 prediction phase 1/2 league 1 actual was league 2
                             supplementary  100% loss - premier league correct

35) Barnett
    prediction generous 50% loss
    qq will expand here

36) A***d Road The Wirral

    prediction 25% loss - league 2 but could easily be closer to 50%
    qq will expand here
    update 16.02.19 - still waiting for report £830K due 31.03.18...

place mark 24/03/21 lent £899,500 - to be confirmed

Total recoveries £445,350.00

Investors return £282,219.04

viz 617281 loss = 68.6% loss

£5k retained which may be returned at a later date


whatever worse than I predicted yet another total horlicks

end place mark



37) C**den Street Liverpool
    £312K second charge may be re-financed - still waiting - nearly 6 months late
    prediction over 50% loss could well be premier league but say league 1

38) D***ds Green
    called 100% wrong full recovery with interest - predicted league 1
    need to check but I think total loan was £848K

39) West **** R**d Liverpool
    first charge £630K prediction 100% recovery
    second charge over 50% loss league 1

40) Zummerzet Properties
    FS second charge £344K may just about be OK ?
    FS third charge £100K have this one as a 50% loss league 2
    QQ need to check the below
    I think the first charge holder has increased his lending so if correct that won't help the
    FS loans...