aju
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Post by aju on Aug 30, 2019 23:36:17 GMT
I've just been checking the latest, to me anyway, www.zopa.com/invest/risk/historical-performance#safeguardand am struggling with the screens that Full Dataset tables both of them are actually very thin mobile type screens that are impossible to see the titles and some data together and its even worse on the 2nd dataset defining the "Expected defaults at origination" table. I tried printing it as a PDF but that was even worse as the data is cutoff. I could copy the relevant data out and create my own tables ofrit in excel but not sure what planet zopa is actually on these days chucking out this kind of crud on such important and relevant data. This the 2nd data set that I see there are toolbars but the titles or year data disappears if one wants to see more data!. Is it just me or are Zopa just making more of a pigs ear than usual. (I can copy the data into a spreadsheet which I do usually but I was looking for a better read than I got.) Attachments:
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Aug 31, 2019 8:40:46 GMT
Yes it’s a mess. But although I’m interested in the global stats as a measure of zopa’s forecasting and risk management skills I’m more nterested in how mrs ashtondav, according to the performance data is earning 2.6% in Zopa plus, even with nearly 1,000 loans. Although nowhere near the Z target at least I’m nudging 5%.
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aju
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Post by aju on Aug 31, 2019 9:28:48 GMT
Yes it’s a mess. But although I’m interested in the global stats as a measure of zopa’s forecasting and risk management skills I’m more nterested in how mrs ashtondav, according to the performance data is earning 2.6% in Zopa plus, even with nearly 1,000 loans. Although nowhere near the Z target at least I’m nudging 5%. Has she by chance sold any loans recently - myself and Mrs Aju sold quite an amount recently and we are getting quite high defaults now that have a large effect on some months even though they are all £10 or less hits there are quite a few of them that before we halved our lending in zopa (we moved a lot to ISA's in RS ) the defaults were compensated for by the returns levels. What I have noticed in this scenario is that it's probably going to take a little while to pick up the interest cover again - We are relending our Invest into ISA as well to bolster the troubled side. The churn is in full swing now so i'll see what happens over the next few months. (This month the defaults are higher than the interest cover for the month for the fist time since I started in 2006.). We removed most of the non SG covered money from Invest that wasn't already distressed so it should be swings and roundabouts at some point. There is little in Invest side to pull that down anymore unless the SG fails. All that said i have always thought that the reason Zopa removed the SG cover was because it was becoming unsustainable their argument about Tax changes for me was frankly bollacks but that's another story. I've also reduced our spreads from 20% in plus back down to 10% and also noticed that we have picked a fair few of these new AS car loans that I am a little uncomfortable with having friends who run businesses on the ability to hand back a vehicle after 50% of payments are completed. What with the recent downturn in vehicle resale value on the diesel market and the petrol market moving that way this might prove also a PIA down the line - the resale on electric is still untried but with battery prices being the bulk of car costs one wonders what that might hold. I'll give it a few more months and Mrs AJU has considerable SG cover on her loans still as we sold most invest and ISA loans to maintain the cover in Core as well as Classic. We still pick up a smattering of SG loans too although its tailed off considerably. Let me know if you are selling out classic SG covered loans and I'll put a bit of money into Zopa to pick them up.  I'm not that convinced about the performance data as to me it looks like they don't seem to aline very much with my XIRR results on both our books probably as my NAR spreadsheet covers the whole picture. That said I am taking an overall XIRR not a product based one - perhaps I should and I would dump Plus but that's not the picture i see at first glance in out books. Also I'm not its accurate as this month it seems to suggest I am level pegging but I know we did not get any gain in return this month. Perhaps I don't understand NAR enough.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Aug 31, 2019 12:16:53 GMT
Yeah, it's very clever from Zopa. I know it's the almost the end of August, Zopa only publishes data up till April 19 and it's up to the user to find it.
According to the info, actual defaults so far for loans originated in 2019 is 0% while a borrower is considered in default after missing four months' worth of repayments.
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Post by fuzzyiceberg on Aug 31, 2019 15:25:47 GMT
Last time I looked at that page one clicked for the tables and got them usefully full sized. The current approach is presumably aimed at the woke kids using phones. Of course that makes it unusable but hey, it fits a phone screen.
The data is also pretty much useless unless you invest in both core and plus in the proportions needed to give you a portfolio weighted with the zopa average of each market. I only invest in Core so I need to know Zopa's performance in the A-C markets only. They refuse to provide this information. I imagine the useless aggregated data they do provide is the minimum required by P2P association/FCA. Unfortunately we can only assume their unwillingness to be open is because they have something to hide.
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Sept 1, 2019 15:21:06 GMT
Yes you can, but for techy numpties like me.....
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aju
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Post by aju on Sept 1, 2019 18:33:56 GMT
Yes you can, but for techy numpties like me..... Well even if you were a numpty and I'm sure you are not it would be of no use to you as the current loanbook is dated 1st Feb 2019. I'm pretty sure I pulled that a while ago and they said they would fix it. If anyone is interested though it available here.
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Post by fuzzyiceberg on Sept 11, 2019 10:42:54 GMT
You can download the historic loan book, can you not, and perform whatever analysis you like? Well within reason. You could probably work out defaults by market by origination year but to be useful you also need to know the expected defaults at origination by market which only Zopa knows and is refusing to tell. I'm afraid Zopa being open went when Giles Andrews got kick up to Chairman. The current executives prefer not to give investors useful data to judge Zopas performance by. Why would that be do you think?
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aju
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Post by aju on Sept 12, 2019 7:47:11 GMT
You can download the historic loan book, can you not, and perform whatever analysis you like? Well within reason. You could probably work out defaults by market by origination year but to be useful you also need to know the expected defaults at origination by market which only Zopa knows and is refusing to tell. I'm afraid Zopa being open went when Giles Andrews got kick up to Chairman. The current executives prefer not to give investors useful data to judge Zopas performance by. Why would that be do you think? Might not work even with loanbook as its not been updated since feb, zopa has agreed to look into why its not updating since i emailed them back in june and recently the are looking again. Perhaps the board has stopped it and no one has been brave enough to admit yet!
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