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Post by mrclondon on Oct 30, 2015 17:53:22 GMT
And here we see what is going to be the major problem with AC's strategy of refocussing on to smaller loans ... complete guesswork at drawdown time as to how much cash to make available to get the max allocation. I suppose that would be (slightly) less of an annoyance if QAA wasn't permanently constipated.
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ramblin rose
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“Some people grumble that roses have thorns; I am grateful that thorns have roses.” — Alphonse Karr
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Post by ramblin rose on Oct 30, 2015 18:12:35 GMT
And here we see what is going to be the major problem with AC's strategy of refocussing on to smaller loans ... complete guesswork at drawdown time as to how much cash to make available to get the max allocation. I suppose that would be (slightly) less of an annoyance if QAA wasn't permanently constipated. And if that's going to be the size of holding I can have in loans then I really can't be bothered to spend time reading the blurb and worrying about it.
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Oct 30, 2015 19:06:12 GMT
And here we see what is going to be the major problem with AC's strategy of refocussing on to smaller loans ... complete guesswork at drawdown time as to how much cash to make available to get the max allocation. I suppose that would be (slightly) less of an annoyance if QAA wasn't permanently constipated. And if that's going to be the size of holding I can have in loans then I really can't be bothered to spend time reading the blurb and worrying about it. This was the smallest by far of the upcoming loans, so we should have expected allocations to be small, especially considering the recent dearth of investing opportunities. (My guess was £300.) The remaining upcoming loans average four times as big as #191, so we should expect the maximum allocations on those to be noticeably larger than today's. Perhaps someone with the appropriate skills could keep track of recent drawdowns and produce a chart of maximum allocation size vs. loan size. That could be helpful for guestimating what allocations might be likely on upcoming loans so that we can better plan how much cash to make available at drawdown time. Volunteers?
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oldgrumpy
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Post by oldgrumpy on Oct 30, 2015 19:11:41 GMT
Quite right, Rosie. AC's forecasts of deal flow have been meaningless for over a year. I really would like to know what (if any) deals have been diverted out of AC's "public" platform, because my money, such as it is will have to go elswhere now. The next "maybe" drawdown is nearly a fortnight away (before any more delays, which are highly possible). Andrew and Stuart - you talk the talk. So be it.
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Post by chielamangus on Oct 30, 2015 19:41:52 GMT
I suspect that the recent rapid increase in the size of the QAA is an attempt to stem the flow of cash out of the platform - few new loans and quite a few being repaid (hopefully!) very soon. Once cash migrates to another platform it will be hard to get it back.
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Post by chris on Oct 30, 2015 21:09:50 GMT
I suspect that the recent rapid increase in the size of the QAA is an attempt to stem the flow of cash out of the platform - few new loans and quite a few being repaid (hopefully!) very soon. Once cash migrates to another platform it will be hard to get it back. There's not been a flow of cash out of the platform. Every single month has had a net gain in deposits, and the same is true of nearly every week (there are 5 or so in the last two years where there were small net withdrawals). I agree that we don't want to see any flow of cash out of the platform but suspect lenders that switch are more fickle than you may expect. It's up to us to make sure the platform is putting forward a compelling proposition. Edit: We've also said from the start that we want the QAA to be around £3-4m.
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oldgrumpy
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Post by oldgrumpy on Oct 30, 2015 21:12:52 GMT
My biggest cashflow out of the platform went to a plumber and he won't give it back  |
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hendragon
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Post by hendragon on Oct 30, 2015 21:28:45 GMT
I suspect that the recent rapid increase in the size of the QAA is an attempt to stem the flow of cash out of the platform - few new loans and quite a few being repaid (hopefully!) very soon. Once cash migrates to another platform it will be hard to get it back. There's not been a flow of cash out of the platform. Every single month has had a net gain in deposits, and the same is true of nearly every week (there are 5 or so in the last two years where there were small net withdrawals). I agree that we don't want to see any flow of cash out of the platform but suspect lenders that switch are more fickle than you may expect. It's up to us to make sure the platform is putting forward a compelling proposition. Edit: We've also said from the start that we want the QAA to be around £3-4m. would the inflow of cash be from individuals or institutions?
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Post by chris on Oct 30, 2015 21:30:53 GMT
There's not been a flow of cash out of the platform. Every single month has had a net gain in deposits, and the same is true of nearly every week (there are 5 or so in the last two years where there were small net withdrawals). I agree that we don't want to see any flow of cash out of the platform but suspect lenders that switch are more fickle than you may expect. It's up to us to make sure the platform is putting forward a compelling proposition. Edit: We've also said from the start that we want the QAA to be around £3-4m. would the inflow of cash be from individuals or institutions? I was only counting individuals.
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hendragon
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Post by hendragon on Oct 30, 2015 21:32:15 GMT
fair enough. thanks chris
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Post by chris on Oct 30, 2015 21:43:49 GMT
And if that's going to be the size of holding I can have in loans then I really can't be bothered to spend time reading the blurb and worrying about it. Absolutely. I'm really surprised that AC have decided that the path to success lies with competing with FC at the smaller-loan, lower margin end of the SME market. Perhaps VPC or another insto wants these types of loans. For me, however, as a larger retail lender it's becoming nothing short of a disaster. Cut out of the primary market in 2H14, I become an underwriter to maintain access to a decent sized clip of loans I like. Now I'm being cut out of underwriting by the QAA. In return, I'm getting immaterial clips of lower yielding, lower quality loans and 3.75% on the QAA. I simply don't want a massively diversified portfolio of shrapnel I have no view on. I want bigger loans (£1mm+) because they tend to come from more established companies, with more diversified cash-flows streams, with better debt coverage and more tangible security. Because there is always an element of pricing to liquidity, not just credit risk, larger loans offer more margin and higher yields. And I can access a decent sized clip of the loan. AC was one of my top two platforms but I'm forced to diversify away by every choice they make. I have to assume AC just doesn't give a damn about investors like me. No we're not competing with FC. Our minimum loan size is still four times higher than theirs and we always take security. There's a push to bring back some of the bigger loans at the moment as the recent changes to underwriting have re-enabled our ability to fund them. We moved away from larger loans in part because the underwriters didn't want to fund them and were demanding ever larger premiums which priced us out of the market. But with the changes that have been made we've moved things back to being able to reintroduce them. We categorically want to be a happy place for all lenders. If you talk to our lender team they'll listen to your concerns but also the type of loans you want to fund which then affects our origination.
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hendragon
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Post by hendragon on Oct 30, 2015 21:50:33 GMT
chris, as ever, is responding whole-heartedly and honestly on this board. Perhaps the questions about lending policy could be addressed by other members of the AC team rather than the (excellent) technical director?
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Oct 31, 2015 3:05:15 GMT
I suspect that the recent rapid increase in the size of the QAA is an attempt to stem the flow of cash out of the platform - few new loans and quite a few being repaid (hopefully!) very soon. Once cash migrates to another platform it will be hard to get it back. There's not been a flow of cash out of the platform. Every single month has had a net gain in deposits, and the same is true of nearly every week (there are 5 or so in the last two years where there were small net withdrawals). What I can't figure out is where this net inflow is going. With so few new loans becoming available in the last few months, and a number of redemptions as well as a steady flow of interest income and capital repayments, there's no opportunity to deploy new inflow. And the answer can't be 'into the QAA' because in order for the QAA to function it has to put the money from investors into those same loans, which reduces loan availability to investors outside the QAA. Though I suppose the last sentence isn't completely true because with the QAA paying 3.75% it has to invest less than half of its balances in order to generate the necessary income. So with £2M in the QAA, £1M of that could be sitting idle in AC's client account -- along with the £200+k sitting in the QAA queue. So perhaps that's where the recent inflow has gone after all.
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jonah
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Post by jonah on Oct 31, 2015 10:05:48 GMT
And if that's going to be the size of holding I can have in loans then I really can't be bothered to spend time reading the blurb and worrying about it. This was the smallest by far of the upcoming loans, so we should have expected allocations to be small, especially considering the recent dearth of investing opportunities. (My guess was £300.) The remaining upcoming loans average four times as big as #191, so we should expect the maximum allocations on those to be noticeably larger than today's. Perhaps someone with the appropriate skills could keep track of recent drawdowns and produce a chart of maximum allocation size vs. loan size. That could be helpful for guestimating what allocations might be likely on upcoming loans so that we can better plan how much cash to make available at drawdown time. Volunteers? 24/09/2015 #198 10% 240k 721 07/10/2015 #205 9% 75k 1000+ 08/10/2015 #194 12% 690k 10000+ 14/10/2015 #197 8% 150k 100+20/10/2015 #202 10% 140k 813.79 30/10/2015 #191 12% 93.75k 188.88 Your wish is my, umm, command? Anyway, date of drawn down, (from our resident hero's table of course!), reference, rate, size of loan and what I could find about the size of the largest pieces people got. I was going to put this in a new thread and offer to keep it up to date, but as the mobile pigchair had all but one column already in his pretty table, I hoped he might update it instead, both to reduce duplication but also 'cos I'm occasionally lazy.  The figures in the last column are what I could find. Precise numbers when people were generous enough to share them. The numbers with a + are indications of someone saying that they got all of their requested allocation which was that number, or a more general reference such as 'five figure sum'. Doing this I realized that there was only just over 1.1m in total in October. Good news that there is well over 2m on for November, I just hope that the dates stick.
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ilmoro
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'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
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Post by ilmoro on Oct 31, 2015 13:24:52 GMT
resident hero ... the mobile pigchair From hero to zero in two lines! Some people (eyes up) have let all this eulogising go to their head & are demanding a cape and some natty red piggypants. This has been denied on H&S grounds (see Incredibles). And, quite frankly, in the absence of any miraculous recoveries in the offing, would be a pointless extravagance  Anyway, extra column added as suggested and an illustrative scatter graph (Not entirely sure it really illustrates much yet) Edit: Just noticed I dont appear to have eyes, just sockets. Maybe that explains the pig! 
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