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Post by pistachio on Oct 16, 2019 21:12:45 GMT
Here is one of my fc accounts:
INTEREST £945.98
FEES -£89.48
DEFAULTS -£249.46
RECOVERIES £0.67
NET EARNINGS £607.71
I'm aware the figures presented by fc on the dashboard are misleading, my question is, if i sold all my loans, will the figures presented after the sale represent an accurate picture?
The interest at this point should be final, as should the defaults. The only items that could vary are the recoveries, and maybe the fees?(not sure about this, does the fees include fees they charge for recoveries?).
Once all possible recoveries are made, are the figures presented a true reflection of how my account performed?
and the same question about the annualised return figure - will this represent a true reflection of the lifetime of my account?
thanks
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easylender
Member of DD Central
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Likes: 225
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Post by easylender on Oct 16, 2019 22:18:25 GMT
It is not possible to sell all your loans, not just because of the queue, but because not all of them are saleable. I think the best way to estimate the rate of return is to calculate the IRR using the XIRR function of your spreadsheet. The inputs to that are dates and amount of money in and money out, and the current date and value.
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richv
Posts: 42
Likes: 11
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Post by richv on Oct 16, 2019 22:29:46 GMT
Here is one of my fc accounts: INTEREST £945.98 FEES -£89.48 DEFAULTS -£249.46 RECOVERIES £0.67 NET EARNINGS £607.71 I'm aware the figures presented by fc on the dashboard are misleading, my question is, if i sold all my loans, will the figures presented after the sale represent an accurate picture? The interest at this point should be final, as should the defaults. The only items that could vary are the recoveries, and maybe the fees?(not sure about this, does the fees include fees they charge for recoveries?). Once all possible recoveries are made, are the figures presented a true reflection of how my account performed? and the same question about the annualised return figure - will this represent a true reflection of the lifetime of my account? thanks Are the figures a true reflection? Sort of in that they wile be accurate in what they show, but what they do not show is the amount of late lone (and processing, and risk band removed) one quick way to check this would be to go to the sale page and see how much is available to sell, or to go to the portfolio page a add up how many are late or processing.. theses lones cant be sold while they are late and are much more likly to default. Recoveries This could be quite a lot, I'm guessing form your numbers you have about £20,000 and have had the account for 6 months, or £10,000 and 12 months? perhaps you have up to £500 late/processing etc (i'm just guessing) so if all of the late lones default then that £607.71 drops a lot!! so how much will default hard to say but over the last 8 months about 60% of mine have defaulted, 20% became selable and 20% are still late. Before that sounds to pessimistic, you should over time get more recoveries some people on this site are reporting over 50% recoveries but that seems to take 5 years or more and is not garaged, I seem to be getting less, but don't know if i'm unlucky or the over posters on here are just lucky. The annualized return figure is as accurate as the all time earning figure, which as discussed is not really the case. The oter things you should consider is what is your exit stratagee, as you may have seen on this forum, if you try to sell up and get out you will probably have a long wait, over 4 months now and growing so could be a year plus if you start to sell today, or maybe not if IF change how they operate. this is not an issue if you are investing for the very long term, or if you are planing to take money out regularly from the repayments but if you where keeping if ready to buy a new car when needed, you may need to rethink. In summary, you may still get a descent return from FC, but its far from definite, and don't consider the numbers accurate until 5 years after you sell up. Hope this way helpful,
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Post by pistachio on Oct 17, 2019 1:04:19 GMT
It is not possible to sell all your loans, not just because of the queue, but because not all of them are saleable. I think the best way to estimate the rate of return is to calculate the IRR using the XIRR function of your spreadsheet. The inputs to that are dates and amount of money in and money out, and the current date and value. hi i wasn't aware some loans weren't saleable, is there a marker that would quickly identify which loans aren't saleable? will look into the irr etc, it's not something i've come across before...
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Post by pistachio on Oct 17, 2019 1:04:57 GMT
Are the figures a true reflection? Sort of in that they wile be accurate in what they show, but what they do not show is the amount of late lone (and processing, and risk band removed) one quick way to check this would be to go to the sale page and see how much is available to sell, or to go to the portfolio page a add up how many are late or processing.. theses lones cant be sold while they are late and are much more likly to default. Recoveries This could be quite a lot, I'm guessing form your numbers you have about £20,000 and have had the account for 6 months, or £10,000 and 12 months? perhaps you have up to £500 late/processing etc (i'm just guessing) so if all of the late lones default then that £607.71 drops a lot!! so how much will default hard to say but over the last 8 months about 60% of mine have defaulted, 20% became selable and 20% are still late. Before that sounds to pessimistic, you should over time get more recoveries some people on this site are reporting over 50% recoveries but that seems to take 5 years or more and is not garaged, I seem to be getting less, but don't know if i'm unlucky or the over posters on here are just lucky. The annualized return figure is as accurate as the all time earning figure, which as discussed is not really the case. The oter things you should consider is what is your exit stratagee, as you may have seen on this forum, if you try to sell up and get out you will probably have a long wait, over 4 months now and growing so could be a year plus if you start to sell today, or maybe not if IF change how they operate. this is not an issue if you are investing for the very long term, or if you are planing to take money out regularly from the repayments but if you where keeping if ready to buy a new car when needed, you may need to rethink. In summary, you may still get a descent return from FC, but its far from definite, and don't consider the numbers accurate until 5 years after you sell up. Hope this way helpful, what does it mean for a loan to be processing? there is no filter for "risk band removed", would this come under "Bad Debt" by any chance? i've added all the late loans and the figure comes to.....£640! hopefully should still end up green, but figures should really reflect the true situation actually i have already put a withdrawl request in (almost) 3 months ago, it's not really worth the risk
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keitha
Member of DD Central
2024, hopefully the year I get out of P2P
Posts: 4,594
Likes: 2,624
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Post by keitha on Oct 17, 2019 8:14:34 GMT
It is not possible to sell all your loans, not just because of the queue, but because not all of them are saleable. I think the best way to estimate the rate of return is to calculate the IRR using the XIRR function of your spreadsheet. The inputs to that are dates and amount of money in and money out, and the current date and value. hi i wasn't aware some loans weren't saleable, is there a marker that would quickly identify which loans aren't saleable? will look into the irr etc, it's not something i've come across before... what can't sell, well bad debt ( Defaults ), anything that is late, anything that is risk band removed ( even if up to date and being paid ) and anything that is processing the day you hit the front of the queue. I have a couple with the risk band removed that have been paying on time for months, but that flag stops them selling. Add in people saying they have recoveries running @20% or less of original payment it could be 15-20 years. Most of my defaults don't start paying till at least 6 months after the default, which itself is usually 4 or more months after last payment made, so realistically i'd allow 6 years to see what comes back.
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