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Post by jmot on Oct 19, 2019 21:53:26 GMT
As I promised in other threads about other originators I keep perfoming some basic due diligence on originators I am interested in. I have a small investment (2k) in Robocash. My review below is about what I like and I do not like about Robocash.
What I like: - they are more "honest" than Mintos originators on the interest rate they pay. It is sort of "fixed" for long periods and not adjusted daily depending on "market" like in Mintos, after all their APR to borrowers does not change over the year. I do understand that loan demand and offer varies over the year and if the two are elastic enough, the cost of the loans (the interest rate paid) should vary as well. But the few Mintos loan originators that I know really well do not adjust their APR seasonally!
- very fast SEPA withdrawals reaching my account the same day - very easy autoinvest setup (even though I do not like autoinvest at all)
What I do not like (in order of priority): - the company structure: for example for Prestamer SL (their Spanish loan originator setup in mid 2016) the CEO owns directly as sole shareholder the company, so there is no holding structure - the black box nature of most of the Robocash originators (for Spain it is simply too easy for me to perform some due diligence and I did not like what I saw): who are the shareholders, the annual reports, ... For example do most of the investors know that Prestamer SL had a negative result for 2017? That its registered capital was increased from 3100 to 60000€? That it is registered in a beautiful seaside "urbanización" instead of an office building? I also checked the Philippines loan originator and they do have a license to operate and several branches (looks much better than Spain), but I could not find out anything else about financials. The remaining originators it is even more difficult to find independent third party information. - very little diversification in loans by the autoinvest, I excluded Prestamer and most of the money ends up in the "Z finance" originator and a bit in the Filipino originator (I would say 80-20), nothing else in the other originators in the past couple of months. - serious cash drag if "Z finance" is excluded, on a single day even though the autoinvest was saying that there were hundreds of Filipino loans available, it only bought 3. Again their autoinvest engine is a black box.
Again I hope this review is useful to other investors, I found most blogs reviews about Robocash very superficial (maybe affiliations incentives do not help  )
My suggestion to the Robocash representative that occasionally posts on this forum is to incentivate management to present some annual reports about the originators, the amount of investment could increase substantially. Maybe they have enough investors already and they are not interested in increasing investment.
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Post by robocashsupport on Oct 30, 2019 9:40:42 GMT
Hello jmot, Thank you for your feedback and suggestions! Being a part of Robocash Group, the p2p platform Robo.cash works with its affiliated lending companies only and does not attract external loan originators. Therefore, occasionally there may be a lack of loans. However, we are doing our best to improve the situation and increase the number of loans from the existing lenders. From our statistics, you can see the significant growth of monthly volume of funded loans in 2019: from 4.3 mln EUR in January to 7.6 mln EUR in September. In the long term, Robocash Group is planning to expand its operations in Asia, so we can expect increased volume of loans on the platform in the future. Currently, our integrated loan originators include Z-Finance, Robocash.ph, Prestamer.es and RC Riga, which provides financing to our lending companies in Russia and Vietnam. They upload loans to the platform on a daily basis. Because all users on Robo.cash invest on equal terms, our autoinvest distributes loans evenly between investors. For this reason, it is possible that it can buy only some of the available loans. With regard to the annual reports, recently, we published the consolidated financial statements for 2018 for all companies of Robocash Group on the website (https://robocash.group/investors/). Also, we have a separate financial statement for Prestamer S.L.U. and RC Riga, which can be requested at support@robo.cash. In the near time, we will also have a similar report for the Philippine loan originator. At the moment, it is possible to view its performance in the consolidated statement of the group mentioned above. We are striving to improve the transparency, and expect to have the audited financial statements for Robocash Group in 2020. Regarding Prestamer S.L.U., the company’s office is located in the business area of Malaga, Spain. As the service was launched at the end of 2016, the following year we were setting up scoring and other key business processes. In 2018, the company reached the breakeven point, and its net profit amounted to 767,404 EUR. Regarding the company structure, we are still in the process of M&A, as the legal entity of the holding company Robocash Group was established only in September 2018. Should you have any further questions about the companies of Robocash Group or our P2P platform, do not hesitate to contact us here or at support@robo.cash. Kind regards, Robocash Support Team |
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Post by jmot on Nov 3, 2019 3:02:43 GMT
Hello jmot , Thank you for your feedback and suggestions! Being a part of Robocash Group, the p2p platform Robo.cash works with its affiliated lending companies only and does not attract external loan originators. Therefore, occasionally there may be a lack of loans. However, we are doing our best to improve the situation and increase the number of loans from the existing lenders. From our statistics, you can see the significant growth of monthly volume of funded loans in 2019: from 4.3 mln EUR in January to 7.6 mln EUR in September. In the long term, Robocash Group is planning to expand its operations in Asia, so we can expect increased volume of loans on the platform in the future. Currently, our integrated loan originators include Z-Finance, Robocash.ph, Prestamer.es and RC Riga, which provides financing to our lending companies in Russia and Vietnam. They upload loans to the platform on a daily basis. Because all users on Robo.cash invest on equal terms, our autoinvest distributes loans evenly between investors. For this reason, it is possible that it can buy only some of the available loans. With regard to the annual reports, recently, we published the consolidated financial statements for 2018 for all companies of Robocash Group on the website (https://robocash.group/investors/). Also, we have a separate financial statement for Prestamer S.L.U. and RC Riga, which can be requested at support@robo.cash. In the near time, we will also have a similar report for the Philippine loan originator. At the moment, it is possible to view its performance in the consolidated statement of the group mentioned above. We are striving to improve the transparency, and expect to have the audited financial statements for Robocash Group in 2020. Regarding Prestamer S.L.U., the company’s office is located in the business area of Malaga, Spain. As the service was launched at the end of 2016, the following year we were setting up scoring and other key business processes. In 2018, the company reached the breakeven point, and its net profit amounted to 767,404 EUR. Regarding the company structure, we are still in the process of M&A, as the legal entity of the holding company Robocash Group was established only in September 2018. Should you have any further questions about the companies of Robocash Group or our P2P platform, do not hesitate to contact us here or at support@robo.cash. Kind regards, Robocash Support Team I appreciate this effort in transparency which is very welcome in the P2P industry.
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Post by jmot on Nov 9, 2019 17:49:46 GMT
I shall continue on my due diligence on Robocash statistics today, since I have been testing the platform for a bit more than 3 months now only with short term loans (i.e. <= 30 days).
I will only consider loans bought until 25-9-2019 so that the delayed/buyback statistics make sense as of today's date.
Out of a total sample of 61 loans bought, 17 were bought back due to the 29/30 days delay rule and 5 are currently delayed by more than 16 days so I got a mean estimated default rate of 37.7% where default is defined as either a buyback at 29/30 days limit or a delay of more than 16 days, I noticed that once the loans go beyond the 15 days delay barrier they almost always reach the 30 days delay barrier, only in one case it did not happen). Only originators selected where Z-finance and Robocash Philippines, I do not have enough sample size yet to provide reliable stats separately on the two single originators, in a month time I should have them, therefore the results below are aggregated. Now when looking at statistics like a mean we should look at which sample size is necessary to achieve confidence (level) and how wrong the mean can be around the value estimated (confidence interval), with a sample size of 61 loans, assuming a population of 10000 loans during the period (probably bigger, but once the ratio between sample size and population is so small it does not make much difference for correction purposes and it becomes a second order worry) I get a pretty solid confidence level of 95% and a confidence interval of 12.5% (this margin of error is relative to the mean value estimated).
Grossly speaking during the sampling period the mean default (or serious delay) rate for the two originators combined very likely lies between 33% and 42%
Now from the results obtained I cannot infer the distribution of the default random variable, but the central limit theorem makes sure that the mean of the defaults will be normally distributed around the estimated point value, therefore the confidence interval above will very likely be correct.
The only assumption that could invalidate the results above is that the autoinvest engine does not allocate the loans to investors "randomly" (removing the independence requirement of the central limit theorem) and any statistical inference will disappear and it would be very difficult to get data to investigate any bias: for example if the autoinvest engine allocates the loans of borrowers with low default rates (a good indicator in literature is a borrower that has repaid various loans) to particular classes of investors or only brand new borrowers loans are sold to investors or .... That is why I am worried about the black box nature of autoinvest engines of ALL the platforms and I do not use autoinvest in platforms that allow it.
The CLT main statement is really simple and useful, but its proof is beyond explanation without a solid calculus and probability theory background. There are some crazy generalizations, but the independence requirement is as solid as a rock for any generalization.
Once I have more data, I shall provide more accurate rates. My main economic worry about these (let's call them) "serious delay"/default rates is the following: the monthly interest rate required from paying borrowers on short term loans in order to cover the "serious delay"/default rate X has to be [100 / ( 100 - X) - 1] * 100 which for the case above would be around 50% per month + admin and operational costs + LO profits.
I look at the Phillipines for example ( robocash.ph/articles/personal-loan) and I see 38.5% to 68% per month which is pretty low compared with the figures above unless a good percentage of the "serious delay" status is not transformed into a real default (which means they have very solid recovery rates which are opaque to investors). I have seen from their summaries of annual reports that they have some loan defaults provisioning. For example for the Philippines they have 2.6M USD default provisions w.r.t to a total interest income of 5.7M USD, this rate of provisions would assume very roughtly a monthly default rate of 4% (almost half for Kazakhstan) which is an order of magnitude lower than the one estimated from the seriously delayed loans above.
Sorry for the quite long technical post, but I hope some posters can appreciate why I am worried about these mismatches.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Nov 11, 2019 11:15:51 GMT
Could someone explain the mechanics of commercial loans and microloans on this platform? Any other type of loans apart from these 2?
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Post by robocashsupport on Nov 15, 2019 8:50:11 GMT
Hello jmot, Please note that the status “delayed” in the investor’s personal account includes both the overdue loans and loans extended by the borrowers, so it doesn’t reflect the actual share of overdue. Concerning the overdue loans, we would like to mention that the holding company Robocash Group is financially stable and profitable – in 2017 its profit was 7.3 mln USD, in 2018 – 11.4 mln USD and in 2019 it is expected to be 22.9 mln USD. Besides, we closely monitor the performance of the integrated loan originators on Robo.cash, all of which belong to Robocash Group, in order to minimize risks and take measures if necessary. Best regards, Robocash Support Team |
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Post by robocashsupport on Nov 15, 2019 8:53:46 GMT
Hello benaj, Thank you for your interest in our platform! Currently we offer to invest in consumer and commercial loans only. Consumer loans on Robo.cash are short-term loans up to 30 days. They are issued by the loan originators from Kazakhstan, Spain and the Philippines. Commercial loans are issued by Limited Liability Company RC Riga to the companies of Robocash Group in Russia and Vietnam. RC Riga is a special purpose vehicle designed to provide secured financing to the companies of Robocash Group. The maturity of these loans is up to 180 days. You can find more information about the model of operation here: robo.cash/loan-originatorsBest regards, Robocash Support Team |
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shimself
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Post by shimself on Nov 15, 2019 10:53:31 GMT
I shall continue on my due diligence on Robocash statistics today, since I have been testing the platform for a bit more than 3 months now only with short term loans (i.e. <= 30 days).
....... I hope some posters can appreciate why I am worried about these mismatches.
Nuff said. And Malaga! 'nuff said twice.
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Post by jmot on Nov 15, 2019 21:48:02 GMT
Hello jmot , Please note that the status “delayed” in the investor’s personal account includes both the overdue loans and loans extended by the borrowers, so it doesn’t reflect the actual share of overdue. Concerning the overdue loans, we would like to mention that the holding company Robocash Group is financially stable and profitable – in 2017 its profit was 7.3 mln USD, in 2018 – 11.4 mln USD and in 2019 it is expected to be 22.9 mln USD. Besides, we closely monitor the performance of the integrated loan originators on Robo.cash, all of which belong to Robocash Group, in order to minimize risks and take measures if necessary. Best regards, Robocash Support Team Ok, I undestand that the group financials are solid, but my understanding is that there is no group guarantee on the loans. This is important given the lack of holding structure at the moment (for example at my last check Prestamer SL was owned directly by the CEO of Robocash as sole shareholder, the shareholder of the limited company was not the Robocash group). Could you please confirm that there is a group guarantee on the loans and provide some evidence on this? Thank you
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Post by jmot on Nov 15, 2019 21:54:53 GMT
I shall continue on my due diligence on Robocash statistics today, since I have been testing the platform for a bit more than 3 months now only with short term loans (i.e. <= 30 days).
....... I hope some posters can appreciate why I am worried about these mismatches.
Nuff said. And Malaga! 'nuff said twice. There are a few rather big and solid companies established in Malaga especially related to the import business and the port. I am not worried by the city. I know that Brits sunseekers love to go to Costa del Sol:D , but there are people actually working in Malaga! 
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shimself
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Post by shimself on Nov 16, 2019 9:24:06 GMT
Nuff said. And Malaga! 'nuff said twice. There are a few rather big and solid companies established in Malaga especially related to the import business and the port. I am not worried by the city. I know that Brits sunseekers love to go to Costa del Sol:D , but there are people actually working in Malaga! It was more about villains and money laundering etc. I have no particular knowledge of Robocash, and actually to deal with anyone in that neck of the woods I would have to know an awful lot about them
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Post by robocashsupport on Nov 20, 2019 5:20:16 GMT
Hello jmot , Please note that the status “delayed” in the investor’s personal account includes both the overdue loans and loans extended by the borrowers, so it doesn’t reflect the actual share of overdue. Concerning the overdue loans, we would like to mention that the holding company Robocash Group is financially stable and profitable – in 2017 its profit was 7.3 mln USD, in 2018 – 11.4 mln USD and in 2019 it is expected to be 22.9 mln USD. Besides, we closely monitor the performance of the integrated loan originators on Robo.cash, all of which belong to Robocash Group, in order to minimize risks and take measures if necessary. Best regards, Robocash Support Team Ok, I undestand that the group financials are solid, but my understanding is that there is no group guarantee on the loans. This is important given the lack of holding structure at the moment (for example at my last check Prestamer SL was owned directly by the CEO of Robocash as sole shareholder, the shareholder of the limited company was not the Robocash group). Could you please confirm that there is a group guarantee on the loans and provide some evidence on this? Thank you Hello jmot, Investments are not guaranteed by holding company’s guarantee. However, all investments are backed by a buyback guarantee provided by the lender, in accordance with clause 6.10. of the platform User Agreement. Concerning the holding structure, the process of M&A is still in progress. We expect to finish it by the end of the year. Kind regards, Robocash Support Team
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shimself
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Post by shimself on Feb 3, 2021 16:32:57 GMT
They've published their accounts, audited by KPMG Weirdnesses. The owner is Russian, the company is headquartered in Croatia, the business is conducted in €uros, the accounts are in USD.
Most of the loans were in Khazakstan, but now all of a sudden they aren't The experience above by jmot showing significant levels of buyback which don't seem to be reflected in actual defaults and losses. Or are they Loan book and 2019 44M. (end 2018 23M) Interest earned before write offs during 2019 131M (which I make appx 400% APR assuming average loan book 33M). "credit loss allowance" which presumably means bad debts 83M. I'm struggling here, does this really mean that most of their loans become bad but this is more than made up for by the huge rates of interest?
I really really want to invest in €uros but this is just too hairy
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Post by Ace on Feb 3, 2021 17:01:15 GMT
They've published their accounts, audited by KPMG Weirdnesses. The owner is Russian, the company is headquartered in Croatia, the business is conducted in €uros, the accounts are in USD.
Most of the loans were in Khazakstan, but now all of a sudden they aren't The experience above by jmot showing significant levels of buyback which don't seem to be reflected in actual defaults and losses. Or are they Loan book and 2019 44M. (end 2018 23M) Interest earned before write offs during 2019 131M (which I make appx 400% APR assuming average loan book 33M). "credit loss allowance" which presumably means bad debts 83M. I'm struggling here, does this really mean that most of their loans become bad but this is more than made up for by the huge rates of interest?
I really really want to invest in €uros but this is just too hairy
I'm not able to answer your questions shimself , but thought you might appreciate hearing about another investor's experience with Robocash. I invested many small sums from May 2018 onwards up to a total capital of ~€750. I allowed auto investment into all loans and all timescales. I made a decision to withdraw from all of my euro investments mid 2020 when I concluded that I couldn't be bothered with the hassle of completing tax forms for relatively small foreign currency investments. (I also had some concerns about the Russian ownership of the platform and what my partridge patronage of it might be supporting, but this was totally down to rumours I'd seen voiced online so may be very wide of the mark). Anyway, the results of my investments were impressive. I have now received more funds back than my total investment with a current XIRR of 12.33%.
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