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Post by MrHappyGoLucky on Nov 4, 2019 17:20:34 GMT
I think we are in a very interesting moments. While recession is looming and many businesses went into administration, the stock markets still hits new record highs.
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Nov 4, 2019 20:45:25 GMT
We’re early into this bull market which started Dec 24th 2019. Stay the course everybody.
Edit for Ace: early into this bull/bear market I have no idea what will happen. Stay the course!
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Post by Ace on Nov 4, 2019 21:03:56 GMT
We’re early into this bull market which started Dec 24th 2019. Stay the course everybody. Is that a forecast?
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Nov 4, 2019 21:38:29 GMT
We’re early into this bull market which started Dec 24th 2019. Stay the course everybody. Is that a forecast? No! But I am optimistic. I’ve chosen my asset allocation and will stick with it no matter what happens. There will be lots of corrections/crashes along the way, just ride them out.
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Post by Ace on Nov 4, 2019 21:42:18 GMT
No! But I am optimistic. I’ve chosen my asset allocation and will stick with it no matter what happens. There will be lots of corrections/crashes along the way, just ride them out. In that case, I think the first correction needed is to your quoted date (it's in the future) 
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Post by Deleted on Nov 5, 2019 18:59:53 GMT
While there is an agreed definition of a recession there is no AGREED definition of a bull or bear market. In my view we continue in the longest ever bull market that started in 2008.
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Post by martin44 on Nov 5, 2019 23:21:35 GMT
I fear the outcome of the election will determine whether there is a recession or not.
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Post by sayyestocress on Nov 6, 2019 9:39:53 GMT
Recessions always seem to be looming...
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Nov 6, 2019 12:50:11 GMT
Recessions always seem to be looming... “Economists have predicted 10 of the last 2 recessions” - anon People are always fearful as well. I don’t really get it.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Nov 6, 2019 13:19:35 GMT
Recessions always seem to be looming... “Economists have predicted 10 of the last 2 recessions” - anon People are always fearful as well. I don’t really get it. You were a Lendy investor, weren't you? Sometimes there are good reasons to be fearful 
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Nov 6, 2019 13:30:32 GMT
Interesting piece from Ray Dalio on the current situation: www.linkedin.com/pulse/world-has-gone-mad-system-broken-ray-dalio/I still broadly agree with Hazel despite also agreeing with the above, because what else is there to do? Yes, we seem to be in a new paradigm, but what that paradigm is we don't really know until after it's happened. It feels like we're going into a deflationary cycle, with more and more money chasing just too few opportunities. Considering the significant FX impact the UK has endured recently, inflation being so low is quite remarkable really. Anyway, with inflation so low and prices so high, for the time being I'm trying to be stoically delighted to have a large portion of my portfolio in cash at 1.8-2%. Bit boring though. |
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sd2
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Post by sd2 on Nov 6, 2019 23:57:41 GMT
Inflation could be said to be very high. In all economic revolution (agriculture, industrial and transport) inflation was very low with periods of negative inflation. If you consider the amount of quantitative easing we should have had extreme inflation. I think the highest it got to was 5% and that was mainly due to the £ falling creating higher import costs. I suspect if they attempt Quantitative tightening inflation would turn negative very quickly.
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