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Post by carol167 on Dec 10, 2019 10:20:39 GMT
So... last weeks summary email says :-
"6.8% Estimated future return based on all your current investments, taking into account fees and bad debts." and has been top end of the 6's and early 7's for months.
This weeks summary email says :-
"4.8% Expected future return based on your current portfolio, taking into account fees and the probability of defaults."
That's one serious drop.
Have they been telling porkies all these months and are now forced to be more truthful with the recent FCA changes ? Evidence would suggest so.
*My italics and bold
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r00lish67
Member of DD Central
Posts: 2,691 
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Post by r00lish67 on Dec 10, 2019 10:59:43 GMT
So... last weeks summary email says :-
"6.8% Estimated future return based on all your current investments, taking into account fees and bad debts." and has been top end of the 6's and early 7's for months.
This weeks summary email says :-
"4.8% Expected future return based on your current portfolio, taking into account fees and the probability of defaults."
That's one serious drop.
Have they been telling porkies all these months and are now forced to be more truthful with the recent FCA changes ? Evidence would suggest so.
*My italics and bold
I thought I had seen a very similar scale of drop on the account summary screen between the same figures, so thanks for confirming I'm not going mad. I had always thought that the allowance for defaults was somewhat optimistic, this seems to bring it to reality. I think lendingcrowd should explain the reasons behind this change in full though.
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Post by df on Dec 10, 2019 12:11:36 GMT
So... last weeks summary email says :-
"6.8% Estimated future return based on all your current investments, taking into account fees and bad debts." and has been top end of the 6's and early 7's for months.
This weeks summary email says :-
"4.8% Expected future return based on your current portfolio, taking into account fees and the probability of defaults."
That's one serious drop.
Have they been telling porkies all these months and are now forced to be more truthful with the recent FCA changes ? Evidence would suggest so.
*My italics and bold
I also had 2% drop from 9.6% (estimated) to 6.6% (expected). My "actual" is 7.46%. I don't know how they calculate it, but 6.6% sounds much more realistic than 9.6%.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Dec 10, 2019 12:15:50 GMT
So... last weeks summary email says :-
"6.8% Estimated future return based on all your current investments, taking into account fees and bad debts." and has been top end of the 6's and early 7's for months.
This weeks summary email says :-
"4.8% Expected future return based on your current portfolio, taking into account fees and the probability of defaults."
That's one serious drop.
Have they been telling porkies all these months and are now forced to be more truthful with the recent FCA changes ? Evidence would suggest so.
*My italics and bold
I also had 2% drop from 9.6% (estimated) to 6.6% (expected). My "actual" is 7.46%. I don't know how they calculate it, but 6.6% sounds much more realistic than 9.6%. mine is a much more realistic negative percentage now just about positive when sign-up bonuses added.
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alanh
Posts: 556
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Post by alanh on Dec 10, 2019 12:56:50 GMT
I've got actual 8.4% vs expected 6.9%. Don't know what expected was before as I've never looked at it. I make my own decisions based upon my own results/analysis so I'm really not that interested in what these platforms expected results are - they are usually so far wide of the mark (positive and negative) as to be virtually useless.
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Post by carol167 on Dec 10, 2019 13:39:38 GMT
I've got actual 8.4% vs expected 6.9%. Don't know what expected was before as I've never looked at it. I make my own decisions based upon my own results/analysis so I'm really not that interested in what these platforms expected results are - they are usually so far wide of the mark (positive and negative) as to be virtually useless.
I wasn't referring to Actual.
I was flagging up the fact that in the course of one week LC have seem to have revised their expected default rate to be considerably higher given a 2% drop on expected % returns. Also they changed the word from Estimated to Expected as if to reinforce that instead of guessing - it's now "Expected" laying further weight to the likely drop.
FWIW my actual is 8.34 but that includes quite a lot of bonus money, so that is obviously not going to be maintained.
My own personal Actual calculations are currently : 4.37 on one account and 6.6 on a 2nd, both % including the bonuses. Take the bonuses away and the results start to look very sad...
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alanh
Posts: 556
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Post by alanh on Dec 10, 2019 14:23:08 GMT
My 8.4% actual doesnt include any bonuses at all. I wouldn't get too concerned about returns estimated by the platforms, they are usually totally wrong. I am just going to monitor my actual returns and decide from there what to do but at the moment intend to carry on as before.
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r00lish67
Member of DD Central
Posts: 2,691
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Post by r00lish67 on Dec 10, 2019 14:27:43 GMT
My 8.4% actual doesnt include any bonuses at all. I wouldn't get too concerned about returns estimated by the platforms, they are usually totally wrong. I am just going to monitor my actual returns and decide from there what to do but at the moment intend to carry on as before. Tend to agree. Quite enjoying the platform and think the manual account offers a chance to earn a bit extra for those with the time and inclination.
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r00lish67
Member of DD Central
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Post by r00lish67 on Dec 10, 2019 15:08:09 GMT
I note also that in the marketplace they've now added an 'expected return' field for each loan. This is rather more odd IMV, as per individual loan your return is likely to be either 100% or much less. Fine I suppose as long as you know to consider it in the context of a large diversified portfolio.
I looked at a few 'A' loans and the expected return is on average about 68% of the nominal return (after the 1% fee)
I looked at a few 'C+' loans and the expected return is about 62% of the nominal return.
Of course the C+ nominal rate is much higher than A, and so the expected return in number terms is still higher for C+ than A. Quite a lot higher actual, often in the region of 7.0%-7.3% for C+ and 4.8-5.3% for A.
What to do with this information? well, meh, I suppose you could bias your portfolio to C+'s if you believe LC's estimates. Not investment advice, and not something I'm gonna be doing either.
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Post by carol167 on Dec 11, 2019 20:43:18 GMT
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benaj
Member of DD Central
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Post by benaj on Feb 28, 2020 15:30:25 GMT
www.lendingcrowd.com/investor-accountLatest target ratesGrowth account: 4.9% Income account: 4.6% Self Select Account: lend at rates from 5.95% to 14.25% My account (Self-Select)
Actual return: 7.65% Expected return: 5.8% XIRR (excluding bonus after fees & bad debt): 6% XIRR (including bonus after fees & bad debt): 9.5% Bad debt: 1.7% So the expected return is about right so far. According to LC, the actual return includes Promotional Bonus.www.lendingcrowd.com/return-calculation
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Post by df on Mar 1, 2020 22:17:07 GMT
My account (Self-Select)
Actual return: 7.65% Expected return: 5.8% XIRR (excluding bonus after fees & bad debt): 6% XIRR (including bonus after fees & bad debt): 9.5% Bad debt: 1.7% So the expected return is about right so far. My account is about 3 years old. No bonuses. Max exposure 0.4%. Actual return: 8.11% Expected return: 7% Bad debt: 38.6%
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benaj
Member of DD Central
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Post by benaj on Mar 1, 2020 22:40:55 GMT
My account is about 3 years old. No bonuses. Max exposure 0.4%. Actual return: 8.11% Expected return: 7% Bad debt: 38.6% 38.6%? How is it even possible? Have I misunderstood your LC account delivers 8.11% return even with this 38.6% bad debt?
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Post by df on Mar 1, 2020 23:42:23 GMT
My account is about 3 years old. No bonuses. Max exposure 0.4%. Actual return: 8.11% Expected return: 7% Bad debt: 38.6% 38.6%? How is it even possible? Have I misunderstood your LC account delivers 8.11% return even with this 38.6% bad debt? Just calculated displayed bad debt value against gross return 
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