corto
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one-syllabistic
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Post by corto on Jan 16, 2020 10:31:25 GMT
For those interested: Precious metals have been rising massively since the beginning of the year, some ETF/ETCs by 20%. This is partly due to these metals being used in catalysers, for which demand is rising as they are used in cars. Electric cars are not quite there yet to fully compete with combustion engines. This trend is sitting on large gains over the last months and years. There is a good chance that the trend stays for an uncertain time longer. Of course, nothing is certain .. do your own DD (eg, SPDM or the somewhat illiquid PHPP).
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pa
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Post by pa on Jan 16, 2020 11:46:37 GMT
With the usual disclaimer that this is my own opinion and not advice to anyone (…it’s 2020… Do people still listen to other people on the internet?).
Each to their own but for me – and I accept that this might be totally different for others - it’s time to get out of palladium (via SPDM) and let others enjoy its journey.
I started looking at PGM back in 2016 when there was a sudden crimewave in people nicking the catalytic converters from Toyota Priuses. I still don’t know if it was because they were easier to remove or if they had more content in them.
Then the whole diesel-gate/ platinum supply issue unfolded for everyone to see in hindsight.
At the time of writing SPDM is up 6.8% on the day and over the past week I’ve seen it being talked about in the “mainstream” which for me usually means my journey is over, although I wish everyone else that sticks with it success.
It was a shame that the only way to access Rhodium (ignoring physical bought from Europe) was through a Deutsche Bank ETC which for various reasons ruled that out for me before the price went parabolic.
Looking at the graphs for platinum it was interesting (for me anyway) to see how closely it was correlated to silver. You can invent any sort of narrative you want for it – as people in PMs often do – but I like the fact that silver is used industrially at a lower price point, either from if/when the economy tops out and when/if the recovery starts.
There should be a rule about people talking about gold on the internet.... so I’ll leave that to others to discuss.
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corto
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Post by corto on Jan 16, 2020 12:25:14 GMT
Dear pa. Good points and I'm aware of them. The expert opinions are split about for how long the trend may stay.
I see the current very fast growth as an opportunity, not for the medium-long term, although I'll keep some metal in the portfolio on that term, too.
[Saw the Rhodium fund early last year, but didn't find a broker who sells it (didn't search for long either).]
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pa
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Post by pa on Jan 16, 2020 15:57:09 GMT
Hi Corto- yes I hope the trend stays in place and that it signals demand for the goods and a healthy economy rather than a few industrial buyers being caught short.
I know my system isn’t nimble enough to catch price moves like these and at best I’ll be cashing out for the same price or lower months down the line when new supply (eventually) hits the market so I just put on a tight trailing stop and see what happens.
I hope that you are more fleet-footed than me and can get a healthy profit out of this price move.
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corto
Member of DD Central
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Post by corto on Jan 26, 2020 10:12:21 GMT
Interesting opinion here www.investing.com/analysis/platinum-breaks-1000-on-big-rally-200499543Somewhat magical language in places, but if I get it right, there is a suggestion that some precious metals may gain, potentially a lot, soon; practically it may already have started with platinum and gold. What they are less explicit about, but the pictures say it, is that a crash has come soon after similar situations in the past. Small time window to get in, gain, and get out again, but for how long? Encouraging to think again how to get the investments safe; including p2p. Of course, this does not have probability 1, but many are expecting a major event. |
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corto
Member of DD Central
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Posts: 851
Likes: 356
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Post by corto on Mar 21, 2020 15:28:11 GMT
Interesting opinion here www.investing.com/analysis/platinum-breaks-1000-on-big-rally-200499543Somewhat magical language in places, but if I get it right, there is a suggestion that some precious metals may gain, potentially a lot, soon; practically it may already have started with platinum and gold. What they are less explicit about, but the pictures say it, is that a crash has come soon after similar situations in the past. Small time window to get in, gain, and get out again, but for how long? Encouraging to think again how to get the investments safe; including p2p. Of course, this does not have probability 1, but many are expecting a major event. The crash happened pretty much as the pictures in that article suggested. Rhodium is down more than 80% in quick time. Pa&Pt less, but not settled yet.
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