registerme
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Post by registerme on Apr 2, 2020 15:45:41 GMT
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Apr 2, 2020 15:50:46 GMT
but I'm guessing a large number of the elderly don't have mobile phones. That leaves aside the whole " do you trust the government to track your movements and contacts with other people?" (personally: No). In normal conditions: No. In times of - and only for the duration of - a global crisis of this nature: I'd say 'yes', unless you can convince me otherwise. Yeah I'm with iRobot on this. Anything that might save lives and jobs. If people were bothered about that they could open source the app.
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Post by dan1 on Apr 2, 2020 15:56:08 GMT
The "evidence" and "models" are secret - you have to ask why? The evidence from the committees of experts advising the government are published So the models are secret. That's not science.
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Post by dan1 on Apr 2, 2020 16:08:38 GMT
It is not so much a question of resources as of preparedness. The UK government employed a deliberate strategy in which we chose not to prepare because the strategy was herd immunity.I firmly believe it's not a choice of economy vs mass deaths. Mass deaths will hit the economy far harder and deeper and leave the UK lagging the rest of the world in the recovery - which will happen, have no doubt. I entirely agree with you in avoiding for as long as possible this virus. You want to let the NHS stabilise, research into treatments to maximise your chances if you require hospitalisation, testing to finally reach you (best case as far as I can see is you unwittingly had it), and eventually a vaccine. But there is no other strategy - you either get herd immunity naturally or via vaccination (the development of which isn't certain). Lockdown just slows down the rate at which you get herd immunity, and allows the flatter curve every one talks about, whilst buying time in case a vaccine can be developed, with the risk of a large second wave if you haven't got enough immunity when you release lockdown (if you do so before the vaccine is developed!) I assumed it was clear that I was referring to herd immunity through infection not vaccine We've lost a couple of months by delaying our response to funding for vaccines, and that applies across Europe and North America. Our private labs, of which there are many and highly specialised for this work, have been crying out to help and seemingly been ignored by those in charge. Look, either this is pure incompetence or a deliberate strategy but I wish for the love of God they'd just be honest with us! I hope there's some honesty with SAGE because otherwise we really are on a wing and a prayer! It really depends on where you want to be. Clearly the UK is not in control, the virus is (hence my surrender post ). I'd rather have the infection rate under control to then be in a position to decide the next move because at the moment the decisions being taken are forced upon our government. The large second wave is a subjective assessment at the moment and we get the benefit of getting to learn from countries ahead of us as to whether that is true. But, the point is we've lost control (and the markets have reacted to that uncertainty as we're plainly aware!) You have to ask yourself why, when it was known transmission took place in asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic carries we allowed the spread? I'm also expecting the narrative to be led by "in hindsight" in much the same way that the response to the Iraq War and the Weapons of Mass Destruction was at the time.
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Post by bernythedolt on Apr 2, 2020 17:10:15 GMT
It is not so much a question of resources as of preparedness. The UK government employed a deliberate strategy in which we chose not to prepare because the strategy was herd immunity.I firmly believe it's not a choice of economy vs mass deaths. Mass deaths will hit the economy far harder and deeper and leave the UK lagging the rest of the world in the recovery - which will happen, have no doubt. I entirely agree with you in avoiding for as long as possible this virus. You want to let the NHS stabilise, research into treatments to maximise your chances if you require hospitalisation, testing to finally reach you (best case as far as I can see is you unwittingly had it), and eventually a vaccine. But there is no other strategy - you either get herd immunity naturally or via vaccination (the development of which isn't certain). Lockdown just slows down the rate at which you get herd immunity, and allows the flatter curve every one talks about, whilst buying time in case a vaccine can be developed, with the risk of a large second wave if you haven't got enough immunity when you release lockdown (if you do so before the vaccine is developed!) But didn't SARS disappear without either natural herd immunity or vaccine having been achieved? So there is possibly a third way: some virologists say that these coronaviruses tend to mutate and weaken over time, when they can no longer find sufficient hosts to infect (as SARS seems to have done). So lockdown remains important, especially in view of the following... The primary aim of the excellent ICL paper highlighted by cb25 a few posts back was to investigate the changing value of the reproduction number R t across the nations of Europe, in response to their lockdowns and other interventions. They conclude that R t has reduced across Europe by 64% from a value of 3.87 (one person infects nearly 4 others) to 1.43, a much healthier value for us all. So lockdown has helped dramatically in lowering R t , the most important statistic out there. We seem to be on the right track. Ideally we have to get R t below 1, then hope those virologists are right (or at least we might buy time to develop a treatment (like remdesivir) and/or a vaccine).
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djay
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Post by djay on Apr 2, 2020 17:47:18 GMT
There's lots of incorrect and possibly disinformation banding around on this thread as well as some good and reasonable discussion. I have no inclination to go into lots of detail, much better things to be preoccupied with, but a couple of factual examples: research and development of a vaccine got underway in several countries at the earliest possible time point. Vaccines are progressing through animal trials in a number of countries and already or about to (within weeks) to enter human trials in four countries including the UK. This is fastest that vaccines have reached this point for any purpose by a long, long way and could not have been done any faster. There was no primary aim for herd immunity, it always was a secondary effect of strategies..... Testing regimes were very good, more than adequate and successful for early parts of the strategy and were ramped up quickly for these purposes, the early contact trace and containment was very good and bought valuable time which is why we are behind Spain and France and didn't get caught out like Italy. The tests have not been ramped up appropriately for the main purpose they are needed for now, which is NHS/key worker testing which is required for logistical purposes. Testing of general population outside of more severe symptoms is of limited benefit at the moment but could be more useful later......
Let's keep it real folks, there's no need for exaggeration, disinformation or purpetuating rubbish for whatever reason in a situation like this.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Apr 2, 2020 18:20:26 GMT
There's lots of incorrect and possibly disinformation banding around on this thread as well as some good and reasonable discussion. I have no inclination to go into lots of detail, much better things to be preoccupied with, but a couple of factual examples: research and development of a vaccine got underway in several countries at the earliest possible time point. Vaccines are progressing through animal trials in a number of countries and already or about to (within weeks) to enter human trials in four countries including the UK. This is fastest that vaccines have reached this point for any purpose by a long, long way and could not have been done any faster. There was no primary aim for herd immunity, it always was a secondary effect of strategies..... Testing regimes were very good, more than adequate and successful for early parts of the strategy and were ramped up quickly for these purposes, the early contact trace and containment was very good and bought valuable time which is why we are behind Spain and France and didn't get caught out like Italy. The tests have not been ramped up appropriately for the main purpose they are needed for now, which is NHS/key worker testing which is required for logistical purposes. Testing of general population outside of more severe symptoms is of limited benefit at the moment but could be more useful later...... Let's keep it real folks, there's no need for exaggeration, disinformation or purpetuating rubbish for whatever reason in a situation like this. It might be useful if you could highlight the "rubbish" so we know what to avoid. Regarding vaccine development speed, do we know if there are scientists working in shifts 24 hours per day ? The normal working week is around 40 hours and there are 168 hours in a week so everything else being equal does that mean a speed boost of at least around 4 times should be possible? (More if you include additional effort and diverting resources and priorities onto C19)
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Post by bernythedolt on Apr 2, 2020 18:30:44 GMT
There's lots of incorrect and possibly disinformation banding around on this thread as well as some good and reasonable discussion. I have no inclination to go into lots of detail, much better things to be preoccupied with, but a couple of factual examples: research and development of a vaccine got underway in several countries at the earliest possible time point. Vaccines are progressing through animal trials in a number of countries and already or about to (within weeks) to enter human trials in four countries including the UK. This is fastest that vaccines have reached this point for any purpose by a long, long way and could not have been done any faster. There was no primary aim for herd immunity, it always was a secondary effect of strategies..... Testing regimes were very good, more than adequate and successful for early parts of the strategy and were ramped up quickly for these purposes, the early contact trace and containment was very good and bought valuable time which is why we are behind Spain and France and didn't get caught out like Italy. The tests have not been ramped up appropriately for the main purpose they are needed for now, which is NHS/key worker testing which is required for logistical purposes. Testing of general population outside of more severe symptoms is of limited benefit at the moment but could be more useful later...... Let's keep it real folks, there's no need for exaggeration, disinformation or purpetuating rubbish for whatever reason in a situation like this. Thanks for putting us straight, but with all due respect, have you considered why your contribution above is any more credible than those you are denigrating? You mention disinformation, but are you somehow exempt? I cite [my bold] above and posit that the evidence shows we have been every bit as caught out as Italy - we have remained 15 days behind their trajectory for a considerable time now. IMHO the vast majority of opinions on this thread have been expressed pretty well, and I wouldn't personally characterise any as particularly exaggerated or perpetuating rubbish. I can't speak for my own posts though... 🤣😂🤣
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djay
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Post by djay on Apr 2, 2020 18:51:14 GMT
There's lots of incorrect and possibly disinformation banding around on this thread as well as some good and reasonable discussion. I have no inclination to go into lots of detail, much better things to be preoccupied with, but a couple of factual examples: research and development of a vaccine got underway in several countries at the earliest possible time point. Vaccines are progressing through animal trials in a number of countries and already or about to (within weeks) to enter human trials in four countries including the UK. This is fastest that vaccines have reached this point for any purpose by a long, long way and could not have been done any faster. There was no primary aim for herd immunity, it always was a secondary effect of strategies..... Testing regimes were very good, more than adequate and successful for early parts of the strategy and were ramped up quickly for these purposes, the early contact trace and containment was very good and bought valuable time which is why we are behind Spain and France and didn't get caught out like Italy. The tests have not been ramped up appropriately for the main purpose they are needed for now, which is NHS/key worker testing which is required for logistical purposes. Testing of general population outside of more severe symptoms is of limited benefit at the moment but could be more useful later...... Let's keep it real folks, there's no need for exaggeration, disinformation or purpetuating rubbish for whatever reason in a situation like this. It might be useful if you could highlight the "rubbish" so we know what to avoid. Regarding vaccine development speed, do we know if there are scientists working in shifts 24 hours per day ? The normal working week is around 40 hours and there are 168 hours in a week so everything else being equal does that mean a speed boost of at least around 4 times should be possible? (More if you include additional effort and diverting resources and priorities onto C19) Unfortunately the limiting factor is not man hours at key the points of the development the vaccines are at. You cant speed up the time from start to finish of an animal trial protocol, same with the human trials. It's the time around it that can be brought down from here on... regulators will be key to this. Thought my post above might light the blue touch paper. I will leave it for now.
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Apr 2, 2020 19:24:19 GMT
There's lots of incorrect and possibly disinformation banding around on this thread as well as some good and reasonable discussion. I have no inclination to go into lots of detail, much better things to be preoccupied with, but a couple of factual examples: research and development of a vaccine got underway in several countries at the earliest possible time point. Vaccines are progressing through animal trials in a number of countries and already or about to (within weeks) to enter human trials in four countries including the UK. This is fastest that vaccines have reached this point for any purpose by a long, long way and could not have been done any faster. There was no primary aim for herd immunity, it always was a secondary effect of strategies..... Testing regimes were very good, more than adequate and successful for early parts of the strategy and were ramped up quickly for these purposes, the early contact trace and containment was very good and bought valuable time which is why we are behind Spain and France and didn't get caught out like Italy. The tests have not been ramped up appropriately for the main purpose they are needed for now, which is NHS/key worker testing which is required for logistical purposes. Testing of general population outside of more severe symptoms is of limited benefit at the moment but could be more useful later...... Let's keep it real folks, there's no need for exaggeration, disinformation or purpetuating rubbish for whatever reason in a situation like this. Thanks for putting us straight, but with all due respect, have you considered why your contribution above is any more credible than those you are denigrating? You mention disinformation, but are you somehow exempt? I cite [my bold] above and posit that the evidence shows we have been every bit as caught out as Italy - we have remained 15 days behind their trajectory for a considerable time now. IMHO the vast majority of opinions on this thread have been expressed pretty well, and I wouldn't personally characterise any as particularly exaggerated or perpetuating rubbish. I can't speak for my own posts though... 🤣😂🤣 I believe the first case in Italy and the first case in the UK were only a day apart, so at some point they got 14 days 'ish ahead of us.
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djay
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Post by djay on Apr 2, 2020 19:53:34 GMT
There's lots of incorrect and possibly disinformation banding around on this thread as well as some good and reasonable discussion. I have no inclination to go into lots of detail, much better things to be preoccupied with, but a couple of factual examples: research and development of a vaccine got underway in several countries at the earliest possible time point. Vaccines are progressing through animal trials in a number of countries and already or about to (within weeks) to enter human trials in four countries including the UK. This is fastest that vaccines have reached this point for any purpose by a long, long way and could not have been done any faster. There was no primary aim for herd immunity, it always was a secondary effect of strategies..... Testing regimes were very good, more than adequate and successful for early parts of the strategy and were ramped up quickly for these purposes, the early contact trace and containment was very good and bought valuable time which is why we are behind Spain and France and didn't get caught out like Italy. The tests have not been ramped up appropriately for the main purpose they are needed for now, which is NHS/key worker testing which is required for logistical purposes. Testing of general population outside of more severe symptoms is of limited benefit at the moment but could be more useful later...... Let's keep it real folks, there's no need for exaggeration, disinformation or purpetuating rubbish for whatever reason in a situation like this. Thanks for putting us straight, but with all due respect, have you considered why your contribution above is any more credible than those you are denigrating? You mention disinformation, but are you somehow exempt? I cite [my bold] above and posit that the evidence shows we have been every bit as caught out as Italy - we have remained 15 days behind their trajectory for a considerable time now. IMHO the vast majority of opinions on this thread have been expressed pretty well, and I wouldn't personally characterise any as particularly exaggerated or perpetuating rubbish. I can't speak for my own posts though... 🤣😂🤣  Holes in Italy's early surveillance and containment led to the virus circulating unnoticed and directly led to the disparate seeding of several other European countries including the UK which was almost impossible to contain. It probably would still have escaped containment eventually, most notably via Iran, but it was certainly expedited by the loss of containment in Italy. I will leave it there, I shouldn't have looked in and read this page of the forum.
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daveb
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Post by daveb on Apr 2, 2020 20:26:08 GMT
BBC radio 4 inside science is on at the moment dealing with this. Quite interesting
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angrysaveruk
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Post by angrysaveruk on Apr 2, 2020 20:32:48 GMT
Thanks for putting us straight, but with all due respect, have you considered why your contribution above is any more credible than those you are denigrating? You mention disinformation, but are you somehow exempt? I cite [my bold] above and posit that the evidence shows we have been every bit as caught out as Italy - we have remained 15 days behind their trajectory for a considerable time now. IMHO the vast majority of opinions on this thread have been expressed pretty well, and I wouldn't personally characterise any as particularly exaggerated or perpetuating rubbish. I can't speak for my own posts though... 🤣😂🤣 I believe the first case in Italy and the first case in the UK were only a day apart, so at some point they got 14 days 'ish ahead of us. There could be a lot of chance involved in the early stages of the pandemic because the number of people involved is very low. If you have people who are infected early on who have a lot of contact with a large number of other people then it would spread a lot more rapidly. As the pandemic spreads and involves tens of thousands of people I would imagine its trajectory becomes a lot more deterministic.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Apr 2, 2020 20:44:13 GMT
France, 1355 deaths today. Where did that come from? Surely some reporting catch-up or something? edit: ah, they had included care homes today.
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angrysaveruk
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Post by angrysaveruk on Apr 2, 2020 20:55:48 GMT
France, 1355 deaths today. Where did that come from? Surely some reporting catch-up or something? edit: ah, they had included care homes today. If you look at the ratio of people who have recovered to those who have died you get some pretty terrifying numbers. In China this is 4% and South Korea about 3%. I am hoping that this is a lot more widespread and we are just seeing the tip of the iceberg*. *I am also hoping that sore throat I had for a couple of weeks turns out the be Covid19
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