r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Apr 2, 2020 21:06:12 GMT
France, 1355 deaths today. Where did that come from? Surely some reporting catch-up or something? edit: ah, they had included care homes today. If you look at the ratio of people who have recovered to those who have died you get some pretty terrifying numbers. In China this is 4% and South Korea about 3%. I am hoping that this is a lot more widespread and we are just seeing the tip of the iceberg*. *I am also hoping that sore throat I had for a couple of weeks turns out the be Covid19 Ditto for me and my dry cough the other day. Strange, this simultaneous fear of and desire for contracting a virus.
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Post by bernythedolt on Apr 2, 2020 22:17:21 GMT
Thanks for putting us straight, but with all due respect, have you considered why your contribution above is any more credible than those you are denigrating? You mention disinformation, but are you somehow exempt? I cite [my bold] above and posit that the evidence shows we have been every bit as caught out as Italy - we have remained 15 days behind their trajectory for a considerable time now. IMHO the vast majority of opinions on this thread have been expressed pretty well, and I wouldn't personally characterise any as particularly exaggerated or perpetuating rubbish. I can't speak for my own posts though... 🤣😂🤣 I believe the first case in Italy and the first case in the UK were only a day apart, so at some point they got 14 days 'ish ahead of us. The first case of infection is almost irrelevant though, because it conveys so little information. Testing is patchy in some countries and very thorough in others. Most commentators agree it's more reliable to look at the death toll for comparison purposes. I've drawn up this table showing the death toll in each country and the date that figure was reached. The final column shows us lagging consistently 15 +/- 2 days behind Italy for the entire past month. There is no doubt in my mind that we are on a trajectory ~15 days behind Italy. Italy UK UK lag deaths deaths in days 21/02/2020 1 05/03/2020 1 13 23/02/2020 3 08/03/2020 3 14 28/02/2020 21 14/03/2020 21 15 07/03/2020 233 21/03/2020 233 14 09/03/2020 463 25/03/2020 463 16 12/03/2020 1016 28/03/2020 1019 16 14/03/2020 1441 30/03/2020 1408 16 15/03/2020 1809 31/03/2020 1789 16 18/03/2020 2978 02/04/2020 2921 15
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iren
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Post by iren on Apr 2, 2020 22:56:18 GMT
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Apr 2, 2020 22:59:59 GMT
I believe the first case in Italy and the first case in the UK were only a day apart, so at some point they got 14 days 'ish ahead of us. The first case of infection is almost irrelevant though, because it conveys so little information. Testing is patchy in some countries and very thorough in others. Most commentators agree it's more reliable to look at the death toll for comparison purposes. I've drawn up this table showing the death toll in each country and the date that figure was reached. The final column shows us lagging consistently 15 +/- 2 days behind Italy for the entire past month. There is no doubt in my mind that we are on a trajectory ~15 days behind Italy. Italy UK UK lag deaths deaths in days 21/02/2020 1 05/03/2020 1 13 23/02/2020 3 08/03/2020 3 14 28/02/2020 21 14/03/2020 21 15 07/03/2020 233 21/03/2020 233 14 09/03/2020 463 25/03/2020 463 16 12/03/2020 1016 28/03/2020 1019 16 14/03/2020 1441 30/03/2020 1408 16 15/03/2020 1809 31/03/2020 1789 16 18/03/2020 2978 02/04/2020 2921 15 You make many useful and interesting observations Berny but whilst I haven't got time to check the numbers right now isn't the initial sequence of 1,3,21,233,463 being identical in both cases too incredible to be true?
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Post by bernythedolt on Apr 2, 2020 23:22:29 GMT
The first case of infection is almost irrelevant though, because it conveys so little information. Testing is patchy in some countries and very thorough in others. Most commentators agree it's more reliable to look at the death toll for comparison purposes. I've drawn up this table showing the death toll in each country and the date that figure was reached. The final column shows us lagging consistently 15 +/- 2 days behind Italy for the entire past month. There is no doubt in my mind that we are on a trajectory ~15 days behind Italy. Italy UK UK lag deaths deaths in days 21/02/2020 1 05/03/2020 1 13 23/02/2020 3 08/03/2020 3 14 28/02/2020 21 14/03/2020 21 15 07/03/2020 233 21/03/2020 233 14 09/03/2020 463 25/03/2020 463 16 12/03/2020 1016 28/03/2020 1019 16 14/03/2020 1441 30/03/2020 1408 16 15/03/2020 1809 31/03/2020 1789 16 18/03/2020 2978 02/04/2020 2921 15 You make many useful and interesting observations Berny but whilst I haven't got time to check the numbers right now isn't the initial sequence of 1,3,21,233,463 being identical in both cases too incredible to be true? Kind of you to say, but I'm just one amongst many doing the same. I hear you, and agree it does look odd, but those are the figures reported on Worldometers. To validate them, navigate down to the orange "deaths" graph and mouse-roll over the orange line to read off the figures: www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/ and www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/I did select matching figures where possible, to make the comparison as clear as possible. Edit: I did notice at the outset that the first four numbers happen to be Fibonacci numbers and did wonder if that had some significance at first (because like you I was a bit sceptical). I have put that down to coincidence though. The later numbers from 463 upwards are probably more significant to show the trend in any case.
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Post by bernythedolt on Apr 3, 2020 0:15:37 GMT
Agreed. It does beggar belief that a relatively tiny country like ours will be overtaking China's total death toll tomorrow.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 3, 2020 7:46:18 GMT
I like some of the APP tools being developed to track contacts over a period with built in secrecy security.
I'm also interested in the French model where they are moving many of the sick to Alsace so that more and more sources are together with the aim of just closing down Alsace and letting other parts of the country open up again.
but I'm guessing a large number of the elderly don't have mobile phones. That leaves aside the whole "do you trust the government to track your movements and contacts with other people?" (personally: No). and if these APPs required us to trust the government (or indeed anyone) then you havn't seen some of the APP developments going on, some really bright thinking is going into tracking that is lost continually that no virus is found.
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Apr 3, 2020 7:58:13 GMT
You make many useful and interesting observations Berny but whilst I haven't got time to check the numbers right now isn't the initial sequence of 1,3,21,233,463 being identical in both cases too incredible to be true? Kind of you to say, but I'm just one amongst many doing the same. I hear you, and agree it does look odd, but those are the figures reported on Worldometers. To validate them, navigate down to the orange "deaths" graph and mouse-roll over the orange line to read off the figures: www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/ and www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/I did select matching figures where possible, to make the comparison as clear as possible. Edit: I did notice at the outset that the first four numbers happen to be Fibonacci numbers and did wonder if that had some significance at first (because like you I was a bit sceptical). I have put that down to coincidence though. The later numbers from 463 upwards are probably more significant to show the trend in any case. Deaths in Italy are thought to be under reported. I've seen this in a few places. www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8179879/Italys-coronavirus-death-toll-higher-reported.html
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Post by bracknellboy on Apr 3, 2020 8:00:54 GMT
I like some of the APP tools being developed to track contacts over a period with built in secrecy security.
I'm also interested in the French model where they are moving many of the sick to Alsace so that more and more sources are together with the aim of just closing down Alsace and letting other parts of the country open up again.
I must remember to forgo any penchant for Alsatian wine. It is an interesting model.
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angrysaveruk
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Post by angrysaveruk on Apr 3, 2020 8:07:14 GMT
I like some of the APP tools being developed to track contacts over a period with built in secrecy security.
I'm also interested in the French model where they are moving many of the sick to Alsace so that more and more sources are together with the aim of just closing down Alsace and letting other parts of the country open up again.
I must remember to forgo any penchant for Alsatian wine. It is an interesting model.
There is going to be a shortage of Pasta and Olive Oil as well. That is why I am becoming a farmer.
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Post by dan1 on Apr 3, 2020 8:08:25 GMT
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Apr 3, 2020 8:17:22 GMT
Interesting article in the Mail (also in the Telegraph behind paywall): "Prof Hendrik Streeck, director of the Institute of Virology at the University Hospital in Bonnhas, said Covid-19 might not be spread as easily as people first believed. Research conducted by Prof Streeck in one of Germany's worst-hit regions showed that the home of one infected family did not have 'any live virus on any surface' ... Prof Streeck ... told German TV that there had been 'no proven infections while shopping or at the hairdressers'."
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angrysaveruk
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Post by angrysaveruk on Apr 3, 2020 8:26:52 GMT
Interesting article in the Mail (also in the Telegraph behind paywall): "Prof Hendrik Streeck, director of the Institute of Virology at the University Hospital in Bonnhas, said Covid-19 might not be spread as easily as people first believed. Research conducted by Prof Streeck in one of Germany's worst-hit regions showed that the home of one infected family did not have 'any live virus on any surface' ... Prof Streeck ... told German TV that there had been 'no proven infections while shopping or at the hairdressers'."
There is alot of contradictory evidence on this:
Given how fast this virus has spread I would say it is probably extremely infectuous.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Apr 3, 2020 8:31:17 GMT
Interesting article in the Mail (also in the Telegraph behind paywall): "Prof Hendrik Streeck, director of the Institute of Virology at the University Hospital in Bonnhas, said Covid-19 might not be spread as easily as people first believed. Research conducted by Prof Streeck in one of Germany's worst-hit regions showed that the home of one infected family did not have 'any live virus on any surface' ... Prof Streeck ... told German TV that there had been 'no proven infections while shopping or at the hairdressers'."
There is alot of contradictory evidence on this:
Given how fast this virus has spread I would say it is probably extremely infectuous.
I'm not sure the articles are in conflict -article you mention "The virus has been thought to spread via cough or sneeze droplets, but the study found germs can linger in the air for long periods of time.", hence talking about transfer via droplets in the air -article I mentioned "We know it's not a smear infection that is transmitted by touching objects..", hence talking about transfer from surfaces
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angrysaveruk
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Post by angrysaveruk on Apr 3, 2020 8:34:48 GMT
There is alot of contradictory evidence on this:
Given how fast this virus has spread I would say it is probably extremely infectuous.
I'm not sure the articles are in conflict -article you mention "The virus has been thought to spread via cough or sneeze droplets, but the study found germs can linger in the air for long periods of time.", hence talking about transfer via droplets in the air -article I mentioned "We know it's not a smear infection that is transmitted by touching objects..", hence talking about transfer from surfaces
That is good news if it is true, means I dont have to bleach everything I get delivered before I bring it in the house.
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