iren
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Post by iren on Apr 8, 2020 15:47:40 GMT
benaj I think "fooled by experts" is a bit strong. "Fooled by governments" is likely fairer. Perhaps even remove the plural on governments if you want to go down the route of questioning the Chinese data ! Its was (and continues to be) a fast moving situation and I'm sure the scientists are doing their best. Frankly, I'm more concerned by the behaviour of certain Western governments who should know better. The UK had ample time to prepare and yet a lot of dither and delay went on, that statement does not include the additional early-warning they had from large-scale exercises conducted in 2014 and 2016. There should be a public enquiry after all this, but frankly given the conservative majority its more likely to be swept under the carpet. I'm also deeply unimpressed with (although not at all surprised by) the disgraceful tactics employed by the US to secure resources for import from beyond its borders and delay, defer or ban export shipments from global manufacturers based within its borders. Sure you've got your own citizens, but by the same token, the modern economy is global. So by aggressively protecting your own, not only are you pissing off your allies, but you're also at risk of weakening the very economies you will be hoping to start selling back into by denying others access to resources. <rant over> My understanding was that, leaving aside China which certainly acted first and on a grand scale in both restricting exports and carrying out a clandestine procurement exercise that stripped other nations of resources, it was Germany that initiated the further breakdown of international supply chains. www.thelocal.de/20200304/germany-bans-export-of-medical-protection-gear-over-coronavirus www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-09/germany-faces-backlash-from-neighbors-over-mask-export-banThis was followed by France, Czech Republic, Italy, India, Turkey etc. As far as I'm aware, USA came to this quite late in the day.
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Post by dan1 on Apr 8, 2020 15:54:47 GMT
There is also a big difference between the government lifting restrictions and people going about their lives as normal. I'll be honest after Boris' experience of the virus I am now convinced I don't want it. I may have had a bit of a bravado before and thought I will be ok, but now I am not sure. If I got it I would be pretty terrified whether I was going down the symptoms clearing up after seven days route or the downhill path. I can only speak for myself but until I am pretty convinced I will not get this virus, I will not be attending any restaurants, cinema's, football matches, going on tube trains etc, no matter whether the government allows me to or not. I'm intrigued to know why your thinking has changed? What in particular turned you from a little bravado to fearful? I ask because there's nothing special about Boris' health - mid-50s, overweight (obese I guess), does a little exercise so in that respect he must be fairly typical I would have thought? The stats show that in his age group 10% will be hospitalised, and of those 12% will require critical care. So, until we understand why it hits some harder than others then all we can say is that he's been unlucky. But, the point is that this has been known for some time so why does one high profile case change your mind? And, I wonder if that in any way reflects thoughts of a significant proportion of the population?
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Apr 8, 2020 15:56:54 GMT
Today's figures (6/4), again from DHSC, 51,608 cases/5,373 deaths, increases of 3,802/439 resp. Good drop in cases, suspect drop in registered deaths might be the 'weekend effect'. Today's figures (7/4), again from DHSC, 55,242 cases/6,159 deaths, increases of 3,634/786 resp. Another drop in cases, jump in registered deaths (possibly including some from the weekend, where registered deaths are often lower). 786 dead in one day is highest UK has seen, previous highest was 708. Average new deaths over last 3 days is 615.33, which is lower than 708 on 4/4. Today's figures (8/4), again from DHSC, 60,733 cases/7,097 deaths, increases of 5,491/938 resp.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Apr 8, 2020 16:12:44 GMT
"This graph shows ..... not out of control..... not accelerating ... which is good news." ? They get paid to say this on TV.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Apr 8, 2020 16:38:43 GMT
There is also a big difference between the government lifting restrictions and people going about their lives as normal. I'll be honest after Boris' experience of the virus I am now convinced I don't want it. I may have had a bit of a bravado before and thought I will be ok, but now I am not sure. If I got it I would be pretty terrified whether I was going down the symptoms clearing up after seven days route or the downhill path. I can only speak for myself but until I am pretty convinced I will not get this virus, I will not be attending any restaurants, cinema's, football matches, going on tube trains etc, no matter whether the government allows me to or not. I'm intrigued to know why your thinking has changed? What in particular turned you from a little bravado to fearful? I ask because there's nothing special about Boris' health - mid-50s, overweight (obese I guess), does a little exercise so in that respect he must be fairly typical I would have thought? The stats show that in his age group 10% will be hospitalised, and of those 12% will require critical care. So, until we understand why it hits some harder than others then all we can say is that he's been unlucky. But, the point is that this has been known for some time so why does one high profile case change your mind? And, I wonder if that in any way reflects thoughts of a significant proportion of the population? The Times seems to think that if he were 5 years older he'd have a roughly 50:50 chance and that we should know by around the weekend after next. www.thetimes.co.uk/article/next-fortnight-is-crucial-in-boris-johnsons-battle-for-survival-hmsnpzbxh?utm_source=SilverpopI like to think he has a considerably higher chance because I think he is likely to have been admitted to hospital earlier than most people and admitted to ICU earlier. In addition there is the possibility that we're almost getting the truth and that he is not on a ventilator or ecmo. Finally he is likely to have received more time and consideration by more experts than most people. I don't know if he fits the medical definition of obese but as the word is used in common language I would not have described him that way - overweight sure. I certainly wish him well.
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james100
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Post by james100 on Apr 8, 2020 18:15:51 GMT
I see the Cambridge police force (@cambscops on twitter) has launched a handy online facility for reporting your neighbours if you don't like them they breach government COVID-19 social distancing guidelines. Bit of push back in the comments!
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iren
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Post by iren on Apr 8, 2020 18:28:20 GMT
No, I don’t “know” that because it isn’t true. You are aware that Iran and China aren’t ideologically on the same page and not natural allies? That this is an alliance of convenience to oppose US power? That the kind of fawning praise you will find in the Tehran Times is to facilitate the ends of domestic acquiescence and tickling the ears of the megalomaniac Xi for pure utility and does not signify actual affection, while China persecutes its Muslim population (and Iran persecutes its atheist and communists)? That in this scenario, a lower level official making statements against the “ally” is exactly what you would expect to find at points, as the anger that’s usually suppressed bubbles to the surface, or one ally reminds the other that its acquiescence cannot be guaranteed if its interests are ignored? The story was sourced from Radio Farda, the RFE Persian language affiliate. And if you are just trying to discredit Breitbart in general, your point is void. All media has to be read critically in accordance with its bias and cross referenced. The current technique of large parts of the major media, such as the BBC, CNN and other left leaning organisations, is to “unperson” the alternatives with smears and lockouts, so that they are free to spread their propaganda without challenge. Simply examine the timelines and events of any of the wars of the last 20 years, who was saying what at the time, what is known now, and to what extent the two tie together. Start with Diana Johnstone’s excellent “Fool’s Crusade” on the Yugoslav wars and take it from there. If you're happy with your source of information fine, but Breitbart has a terrible reputation of rumour mongering. In times of war, rumours are the enemy. Good luck. Your patronising tone is noted, as is the fact your posts contain zero information and zero reasoning.
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Post by bracknellboy on Apr 8, 2020 18:30:48 GMT
further incontrovertible evidence that the UK's Police Forces are dominated by people who want to do nothing more than beat people up and work towards a Police State:
[and yes, of course its not the reality of today's policing, that isn't the point]
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Apr 8, 2020 18:45:21 GMT
I would argue that there is an alternative but it is not politically acceptable, that of suppression by tightening and extending restrictions until we can again use testing, tracing, quarantine measures. Even were it to be politically acceptable does the UK have the necessary surveillance, reporting and enforcement infrastructure in place? I think I'd argue that (taking the obvious example) unlike China, we don't. Given that we don't, by taking such a step we may well be setting ourselves up to fail. That would then see a loss of legitimacy in the government, the health service, and "science". That could be... counterproductive.
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Post by martin44 on Apr 8, 2020 19:39:11 GMT
I see the Cambridge police force (@cambscops on twitter) has launched a handy online facility for reporting your neighbours if you don't like them they breach government COVID-19 social distancing guidelines. Bit of push back in the comments! In the jokes thread this would get far more likes.
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Post by dan1 on Apr 8, 2020 19:46:54 GMT
I would argue that there is an alternative but it is not politically acceptable, that of suppression by tightening and extending restrictions until we can again use testing, tracing, quarantine measures. Even were it to be politically acceptable does the UK have the necessary surveillance, reporting and enforcement infrastructure in place?I think I'd argue that (taking the obvious example) unlike China, we don't. Given that we don't, by taking such a step we may well be setting ourselves up to fail. That would then see a loss of legitimacy in the government, the health service, and "science". That could be... counterproductive. Agreed, we don't have the infrastructure in place. That's not to say it can't be rapidly developed. And there's no point re-inventing the wheel because the likes of South Korea (Taiwan, Singapore too?) have paved the way. It would require further emergency legislation in that short term trade off between privacy and protection. It would require vast investment in terms of people and systems but I don't accept that the UK is not up to the job. Of course, there are many many many reasons why it could not happen (no doubt I'll be told of them in due course ) but I'm an optimist at heart and believe where there's a will there's a way. In my opinion such a strategy of suppression won't even get discussed at SAGE or by the expert groups. To follow such a strategy would in itself be an admission of past failure, and that simply won't be allowed to happen. Likewise, the politicians won't backtrack at this stage.... It's worth recalling that the Imperial report was published on 16 March to justify the change of tack by our government. We didn't have the infrastructure in place to deliver additional ICU, testing, PPE or even sufficient oxygen supplies but likewise there was the will and it has/will happen, I have confidence in that. Put simply, there's no will for a suppression strategy. Edit: anyone else disappointed not to see our Parliament operating remotely? No surprise I'm afraid.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Apr 8, 2020 20:07:43 GMT
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Apr 8, 2020 20:33:51 GMT
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Post by dan1 on Apr 8, 2020 21:05:23 GMT
A damning indictment of the government's scientific experts. The expert modellers of SPI-M didn't model a UK lockdown at first because no one thought it would be acceptable politically “to shut the country down.”
The more I read the more I become convinced of the East (China, Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea etc) vs West (Europe, North America) approach is really a SARS vs influenza difference. "cognitive bias" pretty much sums it up for me.
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Mike
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Post by Mike on Apr 8, 2020 21:47:05 GMT
The point is (imo) we have to start allowing people out I couldn't agree more. The thing that is going to allow us to do more of that sooner than anything else is an antibody test. Which is almost synonymous with "herd immunity". Yes - also agree we need to let people back to work and that the antibody could be a way to do that with certainty. Perhaps a bit of work next week might help in any case, and slowly ramp up pub & restaurant hours going forward (close by 3pm day one, then 4pm then...). Anyone who doesn't like the idea of increased risk to themselves can stay inside which they seem happy enough to do anyway. It's amazing the number of people who advocate an even stricter contraction in the economy without even knowing how many are already immune. In London it could be quite a high percentage. Given the massive variance between different countries with the same or very similar implementation of control, it's impossible to compare results to countries that haven't implemented national (or local) meltdowns that are crippling the economy as here. Does it work? We don't even know that let alone the current scale of the problem (non-immune population) I suspect many (not all) of the people lobbying for longer meltdown are the same wealthy young couples and small groups I spotted on Wandsworth common this evening with several empty wine bottles enjoying their furlough in the sun. Paid to do nothing sounds great unless you work to get paid to pay tax to pay them. Maybe some cold and rain may help sway them into boredom and long for working hours
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