registerme
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Post by registerme on Apr 8, 2020 21:52:59 GMT
Not sure why you're quoting me there, I don't think I've advocated for anything.....
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Mike
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Post by Mike on Apr 8, 2020 22:05:15 GMT
Not sure why you're quoting me there, I don't think I've advocated for anything..... Sorry - it was misleading. I have tried to edit. I didn't mean to indicate you agree with me, probably best not to given the prevailing feeling on this thread.
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kermie
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Post by kermie on Apr 8, 2020 22:17:12 GMT
Found two articles about how Vietnam prepared the pandemic with limited resources. There's only 251 confirmed cases and no deaths. I don't know about specifics in Vietnam, but in lots of countries, particularly poor countries, it's only the diagnosis and death of the rich that's being reported.
The poor cannot afford tests let alone hospital treatment.
Ecuador - 400 bodies found on the street in one city alone the past few days, and yet only 242 reported deaths (worldometers) across the whole country since the crisis began!
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angrysaveruk
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Back and to the left..
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Post by angrysaveruk on Apr 9, 2020 8:37:41 GMT
One thing I am not entirely sure about is the catch phrase I keep seeing on TV that "we will reach the peak in a one/two weeks etc". I dont know what these people are talking about - as soon as countries like the UK, Italy and the US come off lockdown this virus will just spread rapidly again.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Apr 9, 2020 10:15:51 GMT
Found two articles about how Vietnam prepared the pandemic with limited resources. There's only 251 confirmed cases and no deaths. I don't know about specifics in Vietnam, but in lots of countries, particularly poor countries, it's only the diagnosis and death of the rich that's being reported.
The poor cannot afford tests let alone hospital treatment.
Ecuador - 400 bodies found on the street in one city alone the past few days, and yet only 242 reported deaths (worldometers) across the whole country since the crisis began!
Well, let's look at Ethiopia, WHO Director General’s home turf. 2400+ tests so far, only 55 cases and 0 death. Specially looked after perhaps.
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pip
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Post by pip on Apr 9, 2020 10:44:48 GMT
I don't know about specifics in Vietnam, but in lots of countries, particularly poor countries, it's only the diagnosis and death of the rich that's being reported.
The poor cannot afford tests let alone hospital treatment.
Ecuador - 400 bodies found on the street in one city alone the past few days, and yet only 242 reported deaths (worldometers) across the whole country since the crisis began!
Well, let's look at Ethiopia, WHO Director General’s home turf. 2400+ tests so far, only 55 cases and 0 death. Specially looked after perhaps. I think we can all agree that there is a strong correlation between the rate of the virus and countries with high GDP. A few possibilities for this: 1) Countries with higher GDP will likely have larger flows of international air travel, and probably also internal travel, so are more likely to see the virus spread faster - I think this definitely is a factor in the very short term but probably only a few weeks. 2) Countries with a lower GDP are likely to have weaker testing systems in place and therefore people who have or die because of the virus are being under-reported - sure this is a large factor 3) There does seem to be increasing evidence that hotter countries have lower transmission rates of the virus - hard to know if this is a factor yet but looks increasingly possible 4) Governments of countries with lower GDP may be more reluctant to implement restrictions on movements due to likely impacts, starvation and potentially looting, being worse than the restrictions. They may therefore decide to downplay the issue and under-report issues. 5) Potentially some races are more susceptible to the virus than others, this is actually often the case with many illnesses. However there seems to be little evidence for this and if anything BAME communities in western countries seem to be more impacted, we could have a whole debate on why this may be the case. 6) Random chance. Viruses work is strange ways. The Black Death and Spanish flu devastated some areas but left others comparatively untouched. Nobody knows why exactly but in any outbreak the infection rate is never uniform across the world. 7) Effectiveness of lock down restrictions. Some countries are enforcing lock downs far more stringently than others. Surprisingly many of the most severe are those with lower GDPs, especially those in central and south america and actually africa. This could impact infection rates, I have no idea about Ethiopia, however from my understanding the implementation of lock downs in Africa are actually pretty good.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Apr 9, 2020 11:29:25 GMT
BBC reporting "Passport Office staff told to go back to work". Referring to a meeting with staff on Tuesday "According to the transcript, the Home Office deputy scientific adviser, Rupert Shute, told those listening ... "We are working on the assessment that 80% of us, if we haven't already, will get the virus.""
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Apr 9, 2020 11:48:26 GMT
BBC reporting "Passport Office staff told to go back to work". Referring to a meeting with staff on Tuesday "According to the transcript, the Home Office deputy scientific adviser, Rupert Shute, told those listening ... "We are working on the assessment that 80% of us, if we haven't already, will get the virus."" The trouble with these stories is there is a lot of meaningless drivel mixed in with any salient facts that may exist.
Shock horror "Staff working for Her Majesty's Passport Office believe their lives are being put at risk because of demands that they return to work". It's so lacking in perspective because everyones life is put at risk every time you get in your car and drive to work.
As the lockdown starts to get lifted I suspect there will be lots of people who are being paid most (if not all) of their salary to sit at home who will suddenly find all sorts of reasons why it's not safe to go back to work yet. That said, I find it difficult to believe that the passport office is going to be overun with applications any time soon.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Apr 9, 2020 13:04:08 GMT
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Post by bracknellboy on Apr 9, 2020 13:44:45 GMT
Interesting. however I struggle with this a bit. Surely in the UK for example, its been compulsory (or certainly universal) for a long time hasn't it ? I certainly had mine, and I'm near as damn it the same age as BoJo. So hasn't BoJo had it ? One data point obviously isn't worth diddly, but the point being the UK is now seeing significant numbers of infections (basaed on significant number of deaths now happening) but I'm sure BCG has been universal for ages here.
Actually: 1953 it was introduced, apparently. And it was initially offerred to people of school leaving age, 14. So that would mean that people up to age 81 would likely have had it (No, I haven't checked what the uptake rate was in the early days).
I would have thought that for this to have much merit, wouldn't you want to look at infections rates between those with and without BCG in the same geography/demographic, not look at broad sweeping generalisations such as different countries (where so many differences are in play).
Will be interesting to see how this theory pans out over time.
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Post by dan1 on Apr 9, 2020 14:11:58 GMT
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Apr 9, 2020 14:15:28 GMT
Interesting. however I struggle with this a bit. Surely in the UK for example, its been compulsory (or certainly universal) for a long time hasn't it ? I certainly had mine, and I'm near as damn it the same age as BoJo. So hasn't BoJo had it ? One data point obviously isn't worth diddly, but the point being the UK is now seeing significant numbers of infections (basaed on significant number of deaths now happening) but I'm sure BCG has been universal for ages here.
Actually: 1953 it was introduced, apparently. And it was initially offerred to people of school leaving age, 14. So that would mean that people up to age 81 would likely have had it (No, I haven't checked what the uptake rate was in the early days).
I would have thought that for this to have much merit, wouldn't you want to look at infections rates between those with and without BCG in the same geography/demographic, not look at broad sweeping generalisations such as different countries (where so many differences are in play).
Will be interesting to see how this theory pans out over time.
I seem to remember you got tested and then if necessary vaccinated at school, I don't remember any option to decline, and I don't think many parents in those days would have wanted to opt their children out as TB was a very present threat.
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Apr 9, 2020 14:17:35 GMT
There is the old story that if you were marooned on a (not too) desert island you would prefer to have a vet than a doctor because they could look after you and your animals!
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Apr 9, 2020 14:30:52 GMT
Erm, yeah, one problem with that.... France. BCG compulsory for schoolkids 1950–2007 and healthcare professionals 1947–2010. Well, it's only correlation, it doesn't explain whether the BCG vaccine is effective in prevention. Given there have been more than 7 mil migration in France, it would be interesting to find out how many confirmed cases had BCG vaccination. www.macrotrends.net/countries/FRA/france/immigration-statisticsIt's worth noting take up rates in the following countries France (2005) 95% UK 75% Italy, Spain, Germany (no program) European BCG vaccination policy and surveillance
Bojo was born in US, did he had the BCG jab?
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Post by dan1 on Apr 9, 2020 14:31:44 GMT
There is the old story that if you were marooned on a (not too) desert island you would prefer to have a vet than a doctor because they could look after you and your animals! ... told to recite... I'm treating a humanI'm treating a humanI'm treating a humanI'm treating a humanI'm treating a humanad infinitum
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