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Post by Ace on Aug 11, 2020 22:43:19 GMT
During the worst of lockdown I got diagnosed with cancer (actually from encouragement on this very thread), had an operation, and went through chemotherapy leading to the NHS sending me shielding letters. Oh, and my wife gave birth! Besides the times when my blood count was predicted to be very low/nonexistent from chemotherapy (even then I still went out daily and to the shops at quiet times), I've not been very concerned. All the guesses on number of people with the virus in the UK put the probability of a random encounter very low indeed, and it's been that way for a very long time. Then I still have to catch it from them, before there's any issue (and issues are far from definite even then). During the chemo it was especially hard to remind myself of the numbers, and not get sucked into what the media tells me - it was challenging to stay in control of my thoughts even with a decent maths (PhD) background and my wife being a (medical) doctor. Now, I'm out of chemo and no more cancer! Covid is still here though, but I'm reminded it's far from the only thing that causes death. You can hide inside for months in endless worry, but cancer can still come and get you! I let our newborn be passed around friends and family and dont mind hugging my 90+ year old grandparents. One of them, unfortunately, is in a care home with dementia - so not allowed to see him! He remembered noone except his wife in March, but not anymore. I dont know what the point of keeping him alive at the expense of him seeing his family was. It's caused tragic deterioration. Worth it? Not for his family or, I expect, him. Covid is not great but life is fleeting with or without it. Avoiding Covid doesn't save your life although it may prolong it (at a cost). That cost is quite high IMV given the slim rewards. There are also many other things like tuberculosis leading to many more largely (and cheaply) preventable deaths every single year. It's disproportionate/inconsistent and unhealthy to still be so worked up over the current situation - which may of course change. Eat drink and be merry, for tomorrow we die. Well that puts this money management malarkey into perspective. The very best of luck to you Mike.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Aug 12, 2020 10:54:19 GMT
Praise be! Sputnik 5 has arrived. We're all safe. www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/11/russia-approves-coronavirus-vaccine-despite-testing-safety-concerns-vladimir-putinMost and especially the press will be sceptical. I'm not. They've skipped the final large scale test. I suspect there are ethical arguments about testing different vaccines differently and yet it does seem to be a one size fits all approach that the west takes. e.g. If covid was killing 100x more than it currently is, presumably there'd be even more of an argument to release a less tested vaccine. Conversley a disease which isn't claiming many lives at all probably wouldn't justify mass vaccination at all. Hence a sliding scale of tests and Russia has decided to be first - no doubt in part due to the "prestige" value but not only that I suspect. All in all this is good news IMO. To be followed by Apollo 18 (?), Long March 12 (?), and the Dyson Cyclone V12 (?) In all seriousness, I hope it's nothing but good news but only time will tell I guess. michaelc - would you get the Sputnik 5 vaccine now (assuming you could)? Its a good question and I had to think about it for a second. Answer would be no on the grounds that I've got this far so a few more weeks and months to see how this and the other vaccines pan out is probably worth the wait. Possibly an even more interesting question will be how many russians take it.
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Post by dan1 on Aug 12, 2020 21:15:09 GMT
To be followed by Apollo 18 (?), Long March 12 (?), and the Dyson Cyclone V12 (?) In all seriousness, I hope it's nothing but good news but only time will tell I guess. michaelc - would you get the Sputnik 5 vaccine now (assuming you could)? Its a good question and I had to think about it for a second. Answer would be no on the grounds that I've got this far so a few more weeks and months to see how this and the other vaccines pan out is probably worth the wait. Possibly an even more interesting question will be how many russians take it. Saw this and thought of you michaelcwww.thinkglobalhealth.org/article/vaccine-dreams-and-russian-realityNot read it so let me know if you think it worthwhile.
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ilmoro
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'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
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Post by ilmoro on Aug 12, 2020 22:11:48 GMT
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Aug 12, 2020 22:53:31 GMT
It's not unreasonable, but... I struggle with the changing definitions and "dirtiness" of the data. Not just for the UK either. Globally....
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Aug 12, 2020 23:02:57 GMT
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Post by dan1 on Aug 13, 2020 8:09:22 GMT
Hallelujah! The resurrection of man (,woman and child) is the greatest in human history. Praise be the lord. ~~~~ Coincidentally, puts us just below that other authority on death figures, the Spanish, on deaths per million Twas Boris who said judge us on excess deaths, currently running at 60,000 - 70,000. Even the MRC Biostats Unit COVID-19 Working Group feeding the SAGE sub-group SPI-M and regional PHE teams use the number of excess deaths. ~~~~ Does no-one care about the fact we've seen >1,000 confirmed cases (btw the true number of infections is estimated at >3,000) for 3 of the last 4 days (and the other day was a Sunday where numbers are usually lower). I seem to remember the newly invented Joint Biosecurity Centre would recommend action if cases sustained were >1,000.
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aju
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Post by aju on Aug 13, 2020 8:42:29 GMT
Hallelujah! The resurrection of man (,woman and child) is the greatest in human history. Praise be the lord. ~~~~ Coincidentally, puts us just below that other authority on death figures, the Spanish, on deaths per million Twas Boris who said judge us on excess deaths, currently running at 60,000 - 70,000. Even the MRC Biostats Unit COVID-19 Working Group feeding the SAGE sub-group SPI-M and regional PHE teams use the number of excess deaths. ~~~~ Does no-one care about the fact we've seen >1,000 confirmed cases (btw the true number of infections is estimated at >3,000) for 3 of the last 4 days (and the other day was a Sunday where numbers are usually lower). I seem to remember the newly invented Joint Biosecurity Centre would recommend action if cases sustained were >1,000. I feel your frustration dan1 having watched and read a lot of stuff on the non death effects of covid it's way more frightening than the death numbers in my personal worry bubble anyway. I keep getting drawn back here but I am slowly becoming more matter of fact about it sadly.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Aug 13, 2020 8:58:17 GMT
Hallelujah! The resurrection of man (,woman and child) is the greatest in human history. Praise be the lord. ~~~~ Coincidentally, puts us just below that other authority on death figures, the Spanish, on deaths per million Twas Boris who said judge us on excess deaths, currently running at 60,000 - 70,000. Even the MRC Biostats Unit COVID-19 Working Group feeding the SAGE sub-group SPI-M and regional PHE teams use the number of excess deaths. ~~~~ Does no-one care about the fact we've seen >1,000 confirmed cases (btw the true number of infections is estimated at >3,000) for 3 of the last 4 days (and the other day was a Sunday where numbers are usually lower). I seem to remember the newly invented Joint Biosecurity Centre would recommend action if cases sustained were >1,000. I feel your frustration dan1 having watched and read a lot of stuff on the non death effects of covid it's way more frightening than the death numbers in my personal worry bubble anyway. I keep getting drawn back here but I am slowly becoming more matter of fact about it sadly. My wife worries about this - is there any useful data on this yet? At the moment all I've seen about severe non-death cases is individual stories of small numbers of people suffering significant neurological impairment, strokes etc. My current assumption is that the numbers must be very very small. That is just an assumption though, hence the question.
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aju
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Post by aju on Aug 13, 2020 9:10:03 GMT
I feel your frustration dan1 having watched and read a lot of stuff on the non death effects of covid it's way more frightening than the death numbers in my personal worry bubble anyway. I keep getting drawn back here but I am slowly becoming more matter of fact about it sadly. My wife worries about this - is there any useful data on this yet? At the moment all I've seen about severe non-death cases is individual stories of small numbers of people suffering significant neurological impairment, strokes etc. My current assumption is that the numbers must be very very small. That is just an assumption though, hence the question. Not sure about data as such, but you should watch the BBC documentary aired last week I can't find the link I put up probably a few pages back. Whilst nothing is conclusive it never is in these crazy days of i agree with X but he agrees with Y etc etc. Where is Nick (Clegg political joke from 2010) to agree with these days! Whilst that is only one documentary its quite stark in the fact that it hit one of the twin presenters as they were making it and the results were quite worrying. They spent quite a few months in a hospital or two. I've given up reading a lot of stuff and I have comfortable days where I can forget all this stuff but I still remember the flu I had over 50 years ago and some of the effects it has had on my body to this day - balance issues mainly not quite as bad as at the time quite apart from 2 weeks in bed and 6 further weeks with odd side effects that eventually passed mostly. So I am where I am with this stuff not comfortable but not as yet affected directly....
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Post by bernythedolt on Aug 13, 2020 10:42:17 GMT
aju, I think you're referring to this.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Aug 13, 2020 10:45:22 GMT
Its a good question and I had to think about it for a second. Answer would be no on the grounds that I've got this far so a few more weeks and months to see how this and the other vaccines pan out is probably worth the wait. Possibly an even more interesting question will be how many russians take it. Saw this and thought of you michaelc www.thinkglobalhealth.org/article/vaccine-dreams-and-russian-realityNot read it so let me know if you think it worthwhile. Yes, I'm glad I read it and was certainly less sensationalist than most accounts. It seemed to give an honest view of what the general view is in academic/medical america of the situation. So I felt there was no bias other than existing preconceptions - the website being run by a US thinktank and university. It also attempted to answer the question of how many will take the vaccine. As you might have expected, it doesn't seem like there is an overwhelming majority who can't wait to stuff it in their veins. and All, in all, I'm glad I read it and I certainly agree with its strapline "Putin's gamble on an untested cure has high stakes—it could pay off if it actually works but will cost lives if it fail". Of course every world leader's decision has an impact on lives right now too. When/if/how to lockdown being one of them so that fact that it might cost lives doesn't IMO preclude it from being the right policy. What the article doesn't do is address my central question of should all vaccine testing be done equally? Surely, the worse the disease is, the more you should speed up testing. This pre-supposes vaccinations are voluntary and ideally full information about them is released for peer review. (The latter not being true yet for Sputnik5)
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aju
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Post by aju on Aug 13, 2020 10:49:52 GMT
aju , I think you're referring to this. Thanks bernythedolt, I knew some fine scholar and a gent (I assume from the name of course) would be along to help me in this forgetful period I seem to having.
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Post by dan1 on Aug 13, 2020 10:51:06 GMT
I feel your frustration dan1 having watched and read a lot of stuff on the non death effects of covid it's way more frightening than the death numbers in my personal worry bubble anyway. I keep getting drawn back here but I am slowly becoming more matter of fact about it sadly. My wife worries about this - is there any useful data on this yet? At the moment all I've seen about severe non-death cases is individual stories of small numbers of people suffering significant neurological impairment, strokes etc. My current assumption is that the numbers must be very very small. That is just an assumption though, hence the question. A decent read on the subject of long-covid... www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/brain-fog-heart-damage-covid-19-s-lingering-problems-alarm-scientistsIt depends on your definition of small & significant. However, I suggest it's not unreasonable to expect a fair proportion of those hospitalised* with a serious respiratory virus to suffer long term effects. I'd go as far to say if there weren't significant effects then this virus would be highly unusual. I expect suicide rates to rocket not only from the effects of isolation from social distancing and the trashing of the economy but also due to Covid-19 long-haulers suffering from psychiatric disorders such as schizophrenia, PTSD, depression etc as well as those unable to work and who face a bleak future both healthwise and financially. Worth mentioning another trustworthy resource: www.post-covid.org.uk/*you have to be pretty ill to be hospitalised - I've never been hospitalised in several decades of my life to date
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Aug 13, 2020 10:53:42 GMT
Only 31% of Russians believe what the government is telling them! I wonder what the equivalent figure would be for the USA?
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