mrk
Posts: 807
Likes: 753
|
Post by mrk on Dec 20, 2020 16:19:01 GMT
I’d like to see non-sensational clear scientific reporting on the new virus variant without agenda and particularly without intermingling with narratives around the incompetence or otherwise about tiers, lockdowns and U-turns of blindingly obviously dangerous Christmas 5 day relaxations. For that I find it useful to read the scientific sources directly, rather than what's reported in the newspapers. E.g. here's the NERVTAG meeting on SARS-CoV-2 variant under investigation VUI-202012/01
|
|
agent69
Member of DD Central
Posts: 5,624
Likes: 4,194
|
Post by agent69 on Dec 20, 2020 16:47:01 GMT
You mean record infections and record deaths? Except they don't have...Fewer infections than Spain, and half as many deaths - despite a population twice the size. 75% as many infections as the UK, 40% the deaths - despite a pop'n 50% bigger. Only a bit over half the infection/1m pop'n rate as the UK - and fewer than a third as many deaths. www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countriesOr maybe they do
30,000 new cases a day in recent days and 750 deaths a day are both records for Germany (far higher levels than Spring time). They are by no means isolated from the current second surge.
|
|
agent69
Member of DD Central
Posts: 5,624
Likes: 4,194
|
Post by agent69 on Dec 20, 2020 16:54:31 GMT
Well, in more immediate, personal news, my stepfather (91) got his first jab last week, and, Julia, the old girl I do some shopping for got hers a few days earlier (she's in her early eighties but had a hospital appointment for something else so she was done opportunistically, which makes sense in my eyes). So it is happening..... I'm certain she would be flattered to hear your affectionate term of address.
However, in terms of vaccinations, it does appear strange that the people least likely to spread the virus are the firsrst ones to be vccinated.
|
|
registerme
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,212
Likes: 6,021
|
Post by registerme on Dec 20, 2020 17:07:00 GMT
Well, in more immediate, personal news, my stepfather (91) got his first jab last week, and, Julia, the old girl I do some shopping for got hers a few days earlier (she's in her early eighties but had a hospital appointment for something else so she was done opportunistically, which makes sense in my eyes). So it is happening..... I'm certain she would be flattered to hear your affectionate term of address. However, in terms of vaccinations, it does appear strange that the people least likely to spread the virus are the firsrst ones to be vccinated.
Perhaps because, if they catch it, they are most likely to need hospitalisation / suffer from the effects more than other age groups? (And she'd have no problem with my use of "the old girl..." ).
|
|
agent69
Member of DD Central
Posts: 5,624
Likes: 4,194
|
Post by agent69 on Dec 20, 2020 17:10:41 GMT
Given the number of countries that are banning UK travel, it will be interesting to see how the sacrosanct border in Ireland holds up!
Realistically, it appears that the mutated virus has achieved something the the UK government never could: stopping people travelling.
|
|
registerme
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,212
Likes: 6,021
|
Post by registerme on Dec 20, 2020 17:22:50 GMT
Tell that to the numbnuts in St Pancras last night .
|
|
michaelc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 4,893
Likes: 2,767
|
Post by michaelc on Dec 20, 2020 17:36:07 GMT
Tell that to the numbnuts in St Pancras last night . I absolutely don't condone them but you can imagine from a population in London of several million, a few hundred of them probably hadheart rendering stories and needed to move fast. As individuals there may also have been many of them who wouldn't have travelled had they known how busy everywhere was. They probably didn't think it through and then thought "OMG" when they arrived. And yes many probably didn't care either. But rather then blaming people, what about the "responsible" private train companies that took their cash and let them travel. As I understand it they didn't even try to limit the numbers on the trains.
|
|
registerme
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,212
Likes: 6,021
|
Post by registerme on Dec 20, 2020 17:46:24 GMT
Tell that to the numbnuts in St Pancras last night . I absolutely don't condone them but you can imagine from a population in London of several million, a few hundred of them probably hadheart rendering stories and needed to move fast. As individuals there may also have been many of them who wouldn't have travelled had they known how busy everywhere was. They probably didn't think it through and then thought "OMG" when they arrived. And yes many probably didn't care either. But rather then blaming people, what about the "responsible" private train companies that took their cash and let them travel. As I understand it they didn't even try to limit the numbers on the trains. I don't disagree with a word of that. Still, you can imagine how galling it was for people to see if they'd decided to do the right thing and cancel their plans. It's a truly horrible moment in time . EDIT: And let's be honest. Dominic Cummings deserves a mention here doesn't he!!!!!
|
|
Mike
Member of DD Central
Posts: 648
Likes: 444
|
Post by Mike on Dec 20, 2020 17:51:07 GMT
Well, in more immediate, personal news, my stepfather (91) got his first jab last week, and, Julia, the old girl I do some shopping for got hers a few days earlier (she's in her early eighties but had a hospital appointment for something else so she was done opportunistically, which makes sense in my eyes). So it is happening..... I'm certain she would be flattered to hear your affectionate term of address. However, in terms of vaccinations, it does appear strange that the people least likely to spread the virus are the firsrst ones to be vccinated.
My likely flawed understanding is the vaccination doesn't stop you catching it spreading it (or it might, but if it does we don't know that yet) but it massively reduces the chance of the serious/fatal effects. I think also if you send a letter to all 20-30s you might find that they don't all rush at once to get the jab. After all, what's in it for them? Many will be keen but others will do it when they get the chance (if they can remember)!
|
|
agent69
Member of DD Central
Posts: 5,624
Likes: 4,194
|
Post by agent69 on Dec 20, 2020 17:57:08 GMT
I'm certain she would be flattered to hear your affectionate term of address. However, in terms of vaccinations, it does appear strange that the people least likely to spread the virus are the firsrst ones to be vccinated.
My likely flawed understanding is the vaccination doesn't stop you catching it spreading it (or it might, but if it does we don't know that yet) but it massively reduces the chance of the serious/fatal effects. I think also if you send a letter to all 20-30s you might find that they don't all rush at once to get the jab. After all, what's in it for them? Many will be keen but others will do it when they get the chance (if they can remember)! Just tell them that you need a vaccination certificate to get into Weatherspoons, attitudes would soon change.
|
|
Mike
Member of DD Central
Posts: 648
Likes: 444
|
Post by Mike on Dec 20, 2020 17:58:07 GMT
This Christmas thing is a total fiasco. For how many will this be the last straw, and they stop caring about the rules altogether? Very hard to get public trust back on covid rules now Only for those that are looking for an excuse to ignore the rules. Most will follow them, because they know it is the right thing to do, safe in the knowledge that our rules are the same as many other European countries.
I don't disagree - but think there are many who now will be looking for that excuse. After all, does one day and one long lunch at the same table versus 5 of those days make a significant difference? The rules changed for the whole of England to appease those in the new tier 4 and stop them feeling so left out. Of course there is no science behind having an entire day of indoor mixing which is fine but no more than the magic 24h which is when the virus really starts to spread.. It was changed simply to help the SE feel less left out. *Edit - that's how it appears to some. Obviously, it also sends a different message and prevents those without cars or those who don't enjoy dangerously endangering lives through drink driving (or spreading coronavirus) from having an xmas bash far away from home
|
|
adrianc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 9,012
Likes: 4,824
|
Post by adrianc on Dec 20, 2020 18:15:47 GMT
Except they don't have...Fewer infections than Spain, and half as many deaths - despite a population twice the size. 75% as many infections as the UK, 40% the deaths - despite a pop'n 50% bigger. Only a bit over half the infection/1m pop'n rate as the UK - and fewer than a third as many deaths. www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries Or maybe they do
30,000 new cases a day in recent days and 750 deaths a day are both records for Germany (far higher levels than Spring time). They are by no means isolated from the current second surge. Ah, sorry - I thought you mean Germany were ahead of other countries, not a record for themselves. Yes - but, of course, that's far lower levels than we managed back in spring... and we hit nearly 700/day back in November.
|
|
james100
Member of DD Central
Posts: 992
Likes: 1,197
|
Post by james100 on Dec 20, 2020 18:25:14 GMT
I was planning a T2-to-T2 trip with significant transit time impossible without overnight stays. Not able to do it now but as disappointed as I am, I do think it's for the best. Visited a cemetery today and business is clearly booming. The frustration arises from mismanagement of expectations and last minute U turns by our fact-shy, popularity-begging untrustworthy PM. As someone wittier than me remarked last night: we all know what it feels like to be married to Boris Johnson now.
|
|
r00lish67
Member of DD Central
Posts: 2,691
Likes: 4,048
|
Post by r00lish67 on Dec 20, 2020 18:27:54 GMT
I’d like to see non-sensational clear scientific reporting on the new virus variant without agenda and particularly without intermingling with narratives around the incompetence or otherwise about tiers, lockdowns and U-turns of blindingly obviously dangerous Christmas 5 day relaxations. For that I find it useful to read the scientific sources directly, rather than what's reported in the newspapers. E.g. here's the NERVTAG meeting on SARS-CoV-2 variant under investigation VUI-202012/01Thanks, that is interesting. I also noted from the same source: "Antigenic escape. The location of the mutations in the receptor binding domain ofthe spike glycoprotein raises the possibility that this variant is antigenically distinct from prior variants. Four probable reinfections have been identified amongst 915 subjects with this variant but further work is needed to compare this reinfection rate with comparable data sets" Would any of the more scientifically minded people here be able to expand upon what "antigenically distinct" might mean exactly? e.g. does that mean it could potentially be more or less harmful than the original? Does that also mean that if we're very unfortunate then the vaccine's efficacy might be affected? I think the politicians to date have been using the deliberately assuring sounding "there is no evidence of...." line, which kind of sounds like "don't worry, it's fine", but actually means we don't yet have a clue.
|
|
|
Post by bracknellboy on Dec 20, 2020 18:48:11 GMT
Thanks, that is interesting. I also noted from the same source: "Antigenic escape. The location of the mutations in the receptor binding domain ofthe spike glycoprotein raises the possibility that this variant is antigenically distinct from prior variants. Four probable reinfections have been identified amongst 915 subjects with this variant but further work is needed to compare this reinfection rate with comparable data sets" Would any of the more scientifically minded people here be able to expand upon what "antigenically distinct" might mean exactly? e.g. does that mean it could potentially be more or less harmful than the original? Does that also mean that if we're very unfortunate then the vaccine's efficacy might be affected? Scientific minded for sure, but not a clue in this area. However, one should be able to deduce from the words. And if it was true, it sounds like it would be potentially quite bad news. I think in effect if it is antigenically distinct, then its saying it would possibly not bind to the same antibody, or antigen receptor on T cells. You can read into that much the same as I am just doing, with a potentially sinking feeling. I also note the comment in their about four probable reinfections, not even the normally very cagey 'possible' (given how little real evidence there is of reinfection).
|
|