benaj
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Post by benaj on Dec 31, 2020 14:03:23 GMT
It’s not the just the masks, it’s the attitude to protect others.
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keitha
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Post by keitha on Dec 31, 2020 14:10:29 GMT
I think a lot of the figures are plain WRONG !
Chris Whitty has previous for exaggeration ( to put it mildly ) The Zoe App for Blaenau Gwent says about 5,000 active cases in an area with a population of 69000 so 7.2%. Yet the BBC says the rate is 654 per 100000 so by their figures 450.
Given an R of 1 ( which is low ) and a 10 day cycle ) then by then end of March 72% of the population will have had it. By this point of course herd immunity will have kicked in and the rate will be falling. If you set R to 1.1 then by end of March everyone will have had it. Again given these "official figures" and the 10 day cycle rate the whole Health Authority is admitting about 20 patients per day, again if all those were from BG then that would be 1 in 250 people suffering covid admitted with it, now given the health issues in BG and other factors that is a low figure.
Unfortunately my fear is the numbers are being exaggerated to scare Joe Public into abiding by the regulations, and that Joe Public will start to see the figures as untrustworthy and thus make the whole situation worse by ignoring the rules.
Im not saying the whole thing is a hoax or whatever, i'm saying from what I see the figures are being exagerated...
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Dec 31, 2020 14:16:40 GMT
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keitha
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Post by keitha on Dec 31, 2020 14:18:11 GMT
It’s not the just the masks, it’s the attitude to protect others. my understanding is that in tests some masks actually caused more of a aerosol effect. Actually wearing masks isn't an answer, wearing masks properly ie covering the mouth and nose is. Personally I'd make wearing masks in Public areas like shops compulsory ( and yes I know there are people who think they should be exempt because they have breathing issues etc , well they should be shielding ) and I mean wearing masks not visors which offer far less protection but seem to be the covering of choice for many here ). But even today I was in a well known Supermarket and there was a guy shopping with no mask he walked past the "girl" on the door passing out hand sanitiser, and the security guard and neither challenged him.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Dec 31, 2020 14:26:45 GMT
It’s not the just the masks, it’s the attitude to protect others. my understanding is that in tests some masks actually caused more of a aerosol effect. Actually wearing masks isn't an answer, wearing masks properly ie covering the mouth and nose is. Personally I'd make wearing masks in Public areas like shops compulsory ( and yes I know there are people who think they should be exempt because they have breathing issues etc , well they should be shielding ) and I mean wearing masks not visors which offer far less protection but seem to be the covering of choice for many here ). But even today I was in a well known Supermarket and there was a guy shopping with no mask he walked past the "girl" on the door passing out hand sanitiser, and the security guard and neither challenged him. Yes, those selfish fools are the same "I know best" lot who do things like suggest official statistics have been faked to suit a political agenda...
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Dec 31, 2020 15:27:42 GMT
So this is cool. A graphing of of the Pfizer / BionTech vaccine in action ie the infection rates in the control / placebo group vs the vaccine group. imho it's a pretty compelling graph. ibb.co/qy86MF1EDIT: Didn't like being embedded so click on the link . A picture is worth and all that....
An interesting observation. The second does is administered after 21 days as I recall. I wonder where that decision comes from, or whether that is just the protocol they used on the trial therefore its to be the same for real. From that graph there is no noticeable change at day 21 (or perhaps more pertinently at some point after day 21). Its almost flatlining from a a point around day 17/18 after the first dose, and presumably before the second dose. Maybe the point is that hte first dose gives you strong immunity by about day 12-14 and the second dose is 'just' bolstering the longer term affects.
BTW, you do know that this is all fake don't you ? www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4826So it is more crucial to get more vulnerable have their first dose soon?
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Post by bernythedolt on Dec 31, 2020 15:38:47 GMT
Schools and tiers: are these bungling U-turns, or are they just sensible adaptations to the newly discovered, far more virulent, mutation? We must surely expect the political advice to mirror the ever-changing scientific landscape? Easy to criticise, but this must be an unenviable balancing act for HMGov't. Oooh, let me think... 8th December - Government says schools can close one day early for Xmas (last day 17th instead of 18th). 10th December - Daily stats start to show increase in new cases. www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/ - three-day rolling average rises from ~15k towards ~21k 14th December - Mayor of London calls for schools to close earlier, re-open later. Government threatens assorted London boroughs with legal action if they close schools early. The same day, Hancock briefs Parliament on the new variant. 16th December - Starmer suggests suspending five-day Xmas open-season tier suspension at PMQs, Johnson accuses him of trying to "steal Christmas", and says no change. Same day, government start talking about delaying school re-opening. 19th December - Johnson suspends the five-day Christmas. Three-day average hits 30k. ...and that's just off the top of my head. So in the course of just over a week from 10th December, there were some big decisions needing taking in the midst of seriously shifting sands... while simultaneously handling the EU trade negotiations reaching their own crescendo. Like landing an aircraft in a storm, expecting absolute perfection in every single decision isn't realistic. Onlookers may criticise when you deployed your flaps or question your approach speed, but landing in one piece is the only goal that counts.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Dec 31, 2020 15:42:34 GMT
Oooh, let me think... 8th December - Government says schools can close one day early for Xmas (last day 17th instead of 18th). 10th December - Daily stats start to show increase in new cases. www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/ - three-day rolling average rises from ~15k towards ~21k 14th December - Mayor of London calls for schools to close earlier, re-open later. Government threatens assorted London boroughs with legal action if they close schools early. The same day, Hancock briefs Parliament on the new variant. 16th December - Starmer suggests suspending five-day Xmas open-season tier suspension at PMQs, Johnson accuses him of trying to "steal Christmas", and says no change. Same day, government start talking about delaying school re-opening. 19th December - Johnson suspends the five-day Christmas. Three-day average hits 30k. ...and that's just off the top of my head. So in the course of just over a week from 10th December, there were some big decisions needing taking in the midst of seriously shifting sands... while simultaneously handling the EU trade negotiations reaching their own crescendo. Like landing an aircraft in a storm, expecting absolute perfection in every single decision isn't realistic. Onlookers may criticise when you deployed your flaps or question your approach speed, but landing in one piece is the only goal that counts. Umm, perhaps you missed the entire "Evidence was gathering, government were in denial and shouting down everybody that pointed it out to them, until absolutely undeniable" repetition there...? And, at any stage at all from about... oooh, April... the government could have said "Look, this covid lark is taking up more time than we thought - how about we extend the transition, chaps?" to the EU, but they actively refused to do so.
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Post by bernythedolt on Dec 31, 2020 15:47:52 GMT
Schools and tiers: are these bungling U-turns, or are they just sensible adaptations to the newly discovered, far more virulent, mutation? We must surely expect the political advice to mirror the ever-changing scientific landscape? Easy to criticise, but this must be an unenviable balancing act for HMGov't. You wouldn’t drive a car like that; floor the accelerator, slam the brakes on full, hit the gas again, hand brake turn, full steering lock right, gas again, full steering lock left! And a car responds with near instant feedback and with near linear-to-quadratic-responses. Yes, the coronavirus challenge is an unenviable balancing act but that’s no excuse for the government taking the approach outlined above to navigating a path through the coronavirus virus challenge; a non-linear, indeed, exponential relationship with very long lead feedback times for measurable impact to display, all played out through millions of somewhat less predictable players (people). I’m not arguing that some closure of schools and high tiers aren’t the answer. Indeed they are amongst the only tools to hand. What I strongly disagree with is the late, random, erratic and unscientific application we’ve seen. I also disagree with blaming it ALL on the latest variant. There are counter examples to why this opinion has some validity. Germany clamped down on relaxation over the festive season on the basis of headline infection rate without recourse to genomic sequencing of the underlying variants infecting Germans. Closer to home Wales has an infection rate as bad as the worst parts of London and the South East, yet its prevalence of the latest variant is about 20% vs circa 70% in the wider SE. And is there anything new or variant about the four months November to March with increasing severity of weather likely to be worse than April to July (Apr-July2020 being the closest proxy period on which to benchmark and calibrate responses). Plus was the shopping, socialising, festivities and party period of Christmas and New Year a new unknown that the government couldn’t anticipate early as another headwind in the struggle against coronavirus. On top of which there’s only been one pandemic term in which schools and universities were open. But hey just tell the public everything was ceteris paribus apart from the new variant! In summary, to not err at least slightly on the side of caution, to not act smoothly and to not act in a timely manner is a clear indicator of this government’s incompetent handling of the pandemic. The new variant, amongst other things, is notable for the convenient cover the government has used it for to hide numerous unforced and avoidable policy and judgement errors. I'm no fanboy for this government, but I honestly don't think they could win whatever they did. If they'd left Christmas 'open' for five days as planned, they would have been crucified for the new mutant strain proliferating wildly. I hate knee-jerk politics as much as the next man, but here I truly believe they didn't have much option. The 'red' on the map - initially Kent only - was clearly developing faster than anyone could have imagined.
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Post by stevepn on Dec 31, 2020 15:50:00 GMT
Would it be correct to say that all these people who have had covid got it mainly by not wearing masks?
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Dec 31, 2020 15:54:07 GMT
Would it be correct to say that all these people who have had covid got it mainly by not wearing masks? Where have you been hiding all year? Masks aren't to protect you. They're to protect others FROM you. Remember, most infections are asymptomatic.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Dec 31, 2020 16:04:14 GMT
On comparing AZ with say the Pfizer - it be difficult as they were two different teams with different parameters. I don't think you can read straight across from one to the other. But if you need to; the figures are effectively more approximate.
I'm no expert.
It was clear that a big point was being made in today's briefing of giving Jonathan Van-Tam [or JVT as Boris now apparently feels matey enough to call him] plenty of airtime to pre-empt and undermine press space/time on the AZN vaccine being inferior; and also the likely 'bad' reporting of the strategy to go for a single dose regimen. How truthful he was being is I guess a subjective decision, but I suspect many have a higher level of trust in him than in the Bumbling Blonde Buffoon. I found his commentary interesting. in terms of comparisons between AZN and Pfizer, he stressed that the measurements used for efficacy in the two trials were different, and therefore to be careful to not read too much in the apparent differences: an interesting point, assuming its true.
Of course the flip side/cynical take on that is "they would say that wouldn't they".The shift in strategy to maximising number of recipients of first dose seems to be a major one. And I can't help but think it is driven by the emergence of the new strain. I also can't help but conclude that the assembled experts think that the UK is now in a real world of deep **** thanks to the latest strain, and that is driving the revised thinking. Unless of course it was the insightful genius of Tony Blair. [for the avoidance of doubt, that last bit was a joke] Stay safe. Happy New Year. May all your vaccines come early and be fruitful. A fairly balanced analysis there. To me, there is more than a whiff of "there is no evidence that masks work......" all over again just to get the population to do what you want them to do at the time. It would of course be a disaster if folk starting refusing the OXford vaccine on mass. But in my view, the scientists should always be the ones reporting facts and where facts are not known then objective asessments. It is the job of politicians to spin the message to cajole people into what they should be doing - not scientists. I resent scientists crossing that boundary.
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Post by stevepn on Dec 31, 2020 16:10:18 GMT
Would it be correct to say that all these people who have had covid got it mainly by not wearing masks? Where have you been hiding all year? Masks aren't to protect you. They're to protect others FROM you. Remember, most infections are asymptomatic. I find it hard to understand that the masks appear to be a one way system that somehow my mask stops you getting it but the same mask doesn't stop you giving it me.
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Dec 31, 2020 16:18:15 GMT
Where have you been hiding all year? Masks aren't to protect you. They're to protect others FROM you. Remember, most infections are asymptomatic. I find it hard to understand that the masks appear to be a one way system that somehow my mask stops you getting it but the same mask doesn't stop you giving it me. I think it works both ways and a double block is better, but the most important thing is that infected people wear one and since no one knows who's infected that means everyone should. All Covid infections are symptomless to begin with and a lot never show any significant symptoms.
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Post by bernythedolt on Dec 31, 2020 16:25:54 GMT
So in the course of just over a week from 10th December, there were some big decisions needing taking in the midst of seriously shifting sands... while simultaneously handling the EU trade negotiations reaching their own crescendo. Like landing an aircraft in a storm, expecting absolute perfection in every single decision isn't realistic. Onlookers may criticise when you deployed your flaps or question your approach speed, but landing in one piece is the only goal that counts. Umm, perhaps you missed the entire "Evidence was gathering, government were in denial and shouting down everybody that pointed it out to them, until absolutely undeniable" repetition there...? Isn't hindsight wonderful? The timescale here is little over one week, it's hardly a hanging offence to take what may turn out to be a slightly sub-optimal course, if indeed they did. It's not a perfect world. Remembering they still had to balance the need for our children to continue with some semblance of education. Had they closed schools then discovered a week later it proved unnecessary, Starmer would no doubt have hung them out to dry for 'wrecking our children's education'. I've been the first to criticise this government for some of its past mistakes, but here I think they really were wrong-footed by the unexpected and eye-wateringly fast spreading mutation and the science advice which necessarily has to lag behind it. I posit there is a tiny minority who wanted this transition period to drag on any longer than it already has. I personally think Boris got it absolutely right: finish it once and for all at the end of December, come what may. Now at last we can focus on the future and perhaps start to slowly come together again as a country.
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