agent69
Member of DD Central
Posts: 5,956
Likes: 4,387
|
Post by agent69 on Jan 2, 2021 12:20:42 GMT
Just tried putting in 102 years old and yes to extremely vulnerable and health risks, still don't get the vaccine till April or May next year! Edit: If I add care home resident or worker and health worker still comes out April next year (although between 0 and 500,000 ahead) odd that there are up to 500,000, 102 year old heath workers out there..... Maybe I broke it! Hidden in the small print is this is the date by which you expect to receive your SECOND dose. So perhaps April/May 2021 sounds more feasible, given the expected 12 weeks wait between doses. It would be more helpful if the calculator gave the expected date for dose one. The predicted dates are based on people getting 2 doses, so deduct 3 weeks from the estimated date for the first jab and then divide the duration betwen now and the first jab by 2 to reflect people are only getting one jab initially.
Those who are projected to get jabbed in 2022 can take solace from the fact that by the time it's their turn any adverse health issues should have been sorted out.
|
|
agent69
Member of DD Central
Posts: 5,956
Likes: 4,387
|
Post by agent69 on Jan 2, 2021 12:27:24 GMT
I've come across a product called "Taffix" (just google it). It is a nasal spray that purports to create a hostile environment in the nasal cavity where up to 97% of viruses can't survive. It works within 50 seconds and each single dose apparently protects for 5 hours. It works by lowering the ph in the nose from 6.5 (which apparently viruses love) to 3.5 which renders them ineffective. It does say it should be used IN ADDITION to wearing a mask and social distancing etc. While it purports to cost £13 per 1000mg bottle, it appears you can only purchase a "family pack" of four, costing £52 . I did spot some profiteering bastard on Amazon trying to sell one bottle for over £30. Just wondering whether anyone has heard of it or even tried it. I can do you a really good deal on some magic beans if you're interested
|
|
mrk
Posts: 807
Likes: 753
|
Post by mrk on Jan 2, 2021 13:53:39 GMT
I think aspects of this is misunderstanding some of the science, the trials, and the recommendations. Which is not to say it is also not taking some risks. Talking about the AZN only. [...] But the decision to wait 12 weeks for the second dose applies to the Pfizer vaccine as well. Pfizer themselves stated their vaccine was not tested under that schedule. Fauci said the US won't delay the second dose but stick to the optimal time determined by the clinical trials.
|
|
jonno
Member of DD Central
nil satis nisi optimum
Posts: 2,795
Likes: 3,223
|
Post by jonno on Jan 2, 2021 14:35:24 GMT
I've come across a product called "Taffix" (just google it). It is a nasal spray that purports to create a hostile environment in the nasal cavity where up to 97% of viruses can't survive. It works within 50 seconds and each single dose apparently protects for 5 hours. It works by lowering the ph in the nose from 6.5 (which apparently viruses love) to 3.5 which renders them ineffective. It does say it should be used IN ADDITION to wearing a mask and social distancing etc. While it purports to cost £13 per 1000mg bottle, it appears you can only purchase a "family pack" of four, costing £52 . I did spot some profiteering bastard on Amazon trying to sell one bottle for over £30. Just wondering whether anyone has heard of it or even tried it. I can do you a really good deal on some magic beans if you're interested Well they're going to have to be less than £52!!! And, I don't really fancy sticking beans (magic or otherwise) up my chuffin nose.
|
|
|
Post by bernythedolt on Jan 2, 2021 15:52:51 GMT
Hidden in the small print is this is the date by which you expect to receive your SECOND dose. So perhaps April/May 2021 sounds more feasible, given the expected 12 weeks wait between doses. It would be more helpful if the calculator gave the expected date for dose one. The predicted dates are based on people getting 2 doses, so deduct 3 weeks from the estimated date for the first jab and then divide the duration betwen now and the first jab by 2 to reflect people are only getting one jab initially.
Those who are projected to get jabbed in 2022 can take solace from the fact that by the time it's their turn any adverse health issues should have been sorted out.
This calculator is definitely flaky, so I wouldn't take too much notice. Enter age 65 and the govt's hoped for vaccination rate of 2m per week (in place of 1m) and it tells me "Given a vaccination rate of 2,000,000 a week and an uptake of 70.6%, you should expect to receive your two doses of vaccine and be fully protected by between 04/06/2021 and 29/03/2021". If the vaccine makes time run backwards, I'm up for a double whammy please.
|
|
IFISAcava
Member of DD Central
Posts: 3,683
Likes: 3,008
|
Post by IFISAcava on Jan 2, 2021 16:43:27 GMT
I think aspects of this is misunderstanding some of the science, the trials, and the recommendations. Which is not to say it is also not taking some risks. Talking about the AZN only. [...] But the decision to wait 12 weeks for the second dose applies to the Pfizer vaccine as well. Pfizer themselves stated their vaccine was not tested under that schedule. Fauci said the US won't delay the second dose but stick to the optimal time determined by the clinical trials. The basic issue is optimal versus pragmatic. I don't think people realise quite how bad things are this time around. The NHS is entering disaster mode, this variant is spreading like crazy and probably can't be contained by lockdowns. I am afraid this is now a "do the best you can" emergency scenario not "provide the best possible care". Get one dose into as may people as possible on an emergency basis and get them the second dose within 12 weeks if you can. Hopefully the demand on the NHS will start to be reduced once enough people have the first dose and second dosing can be done in a calmer manner. Also remember this isn't a one off - it's likely that the vaccine will need repeating annually or every few years.
|
|
mrk
Posts: 807
Likes: 753
|
Post by mrk on Jan 2, 2021 17:00:31 GMT
But the decision to wait 12 weeks for the second dose applies to the Pfizer vaccine as well. Pfizer themselves stated their vaccine was not tested under that schedule. Fauci said the US won't delay the second dose but stick to the optimal time determined by the clinical trials. The basic issue is optimal versus pragmatic. I don't think people realise quite how bad things are this time around. The NHS is entering disaster mode, this variant is spreading like crazy and probably can't be contained by lockdowns. I am afraid this is now a "do the best you can" emergency scenario not "provide the best possible care". Get one dose into as may people as possible on an emergency basis and get them the second dose within 12 weeks if you can. Hopefully the demand on the NHS will start to be reduced once enough people have the first dose and second dosing can be done in a calmer manner. Also remember this isn't a one off - it's likely that the vaccine will need repeating annually or every few years. I understand that, and I'm not even opposed to it. All I'm saying is that they should be clear about this, stop saying "no corners have been cut" and admit we're basically resorting to wartime medicine measures.
|
|
agent69
Member of DD Central
Posts: 5,956
Likes: 4,387
|
Post by agent69 on Jan 2, 2021 17:11:52 GMT
The basic issue is optimal versus pragmatic. I don't think people realise quite how bad things are this time around. The NHS is entering disaster mode, this variant is spreading like crazy and probably can't be contained by lockdowns. I am afraid this is now a "do the best you can" emergency scenario not "provide the best possible care". Get one dose into as may people as possible on an emergency basis and get them the second dose within 12 weeks if you can. Hopefully the demand on the NHS will start to be reduced once enough people have the first dose and second dosing can be done in a calmer manner. Also remember this isn't a one off - it's likely that the vaccine will need repeating annually or every few years. Is this really the case?
Looking at the rates from coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map , Kent (the spawning ground for the mutated version) has falling rates and South Wales (which had a major problem a couple of weeks ago) has rates reducing by 30% week on week, accepting that there is a lower percentage of the mutant version in Wales. It does look like tier / level 4 restrictions are having some affect. It's the tier 3 areas adjacent to tier 4 that appear to be the problem.
|
|
benaj
Member of DD Central
Posts: 5,421
Likes: 1,701
|
Post by benaj on Jan 2, 2021 17:12:32 GMT
I am afraid this new strain is spreading so quickly, even with school closure, we still haven’t reached the peak yet.
Cases by specimen date is high on 29th Dec 2020
|
|
agent69
Member of DD Central
Posts: 5,956
Likes: 4,387
|
Post by agent69 on Jan 2, 2021 17:19:11 GMT
...this variant is spreading like crazy and probably can't be contained by lockdowns... Wales, until a week or two ago, has struggled with the old variant (prevalence 90% old 10% new). So how much of the out of control infection rate in London and the SE is truly down to the new variant (70% prevalence) and how much down to policy/judgement errors and general government mishandling? View AttachmentOr possibly down to people just ignoring the regulations, like the 4 premier league footballers who were caught partying over the Christmas period (don't worry their employer has given them a good telling off).
Go on any one of the travel forums and you will see people from tier 4 areas asking where they can get travel insurance to go on holiday. Worst still there are plenty of others offering them advice.
|
|
IFISAcava
Member of DD Central
Posts: 3,683
Likes: 3,008
|
Post by IFISAcava on Jan 2, 2021 17:44:25 GMT
The basic issue is optimal versus pragmatic. I don't think people realise quite how bad things are this time around. The NHS is entering disaster mode, this variant is spreading like crazy and probably can't be contained by lockdowns. I am afraid this is now a "do the best you can" emergency scenario not "provide the best possible care". Get one dose into as may people as possible on an emergency basis and get them the second dose within 12 weeks if you can. Hopefully the demand on the NHS will start to be reduced once enough people have the first dose and second dosing can be done in a calmer manner. Also remember this isn't a one off - it's likely that the vaccine will need repeating annually or every few years. Is this really the case?
Looking at the rates from coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map , Kent (the spawning ground for the mutated version) has falling rates and South Wales (which had a major problem a couple of weeks ago) has rates reducing by 30% week on week, accepting that there is a lower percentage of the mutant version in Wales. It does look like tier / level 4 restrictions are having some affect. It's the tier 3 areas adjacent to tier 4 that appear to be the problem. I admit I haven't looked that closely but the data I saw during the Nov lockdown suggested the old variant was supressed by lockdown measures and the new one not.
|
|
ilmoro
Member of DD Central
'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
Posts: 11,231
Likes: 11,422
|
Post by ilmoro on Jan 2, 2021 17:54:24 GMT
Wales, until a week or two ago, has struggled with the old variant (prevalence 90% old 10% new). So how much of the out of control infection rate in London and the SE is truly down to the new variant (70% prevalence) and how much down to policy/judgement errors and general government mishandling? View AttachmentOr possibly down to people just ignoring the regulations, like the 4 premier league footballers who were caught partying over the Christmas period (don't worry their employer has given them a good telling off).
Go on any one of the travel forums and you will see people from tier 4 areas asking where they can get travel insurance to go on holiday. Worst still there are plenty of others offering them advice.
The animal park in Dorset that had to close allegedly due to the abuse that staff got when they contacted people who had booked to tell they couldn't come as they lived in Tier 4 area.
|
|
|
Post by bracknellboy on Jan 2, 2021 18:05:55 GMT
I think aspects of this is misunderstanding some of the science, the trials, and the recommendations. Which is not to say it is also not taking some risks. Talking about the AZN only. [...] But the decision to wait 12 weeks for the second dose applies to the Pfizer vaccine as well. Pfizer themselves stated their vaccine was not tested under that schedule. Fauci said the US won't delay the second dose but stick to the optimal time determined by the clinical trials. I deliberately held back from any commentary on the Pfizer case. That I do find potentially slightly more concerning, from an efficacy point of view: mRNA vaccines are new, and therefore it would seem reasonable to draw less parallels/corollaries from our historic experience with traditional vaccine mechanisms. However I doubt that the conclusion on the safety aspect is much different.
|
|
|
Post by dan1 on Jan 2, 2021 18:27:16 GMT
Do any of these vaccines have an age dependent dose profile as per the flu vaccines? Surely, the immune system of older folk require a bit more of a kick start (in general terms that is). Maybe this will come in time as more trials are conducted and data is gathered.
The switch to initial single dose and subsequent mix & match vaccines - what does this do to the evolution of the virus? We've got really high incidence (plenty of opportunities to mutate) and a growing number of people with some protection from their first dose. I guess these folk fight the virus better than they could have without a vaccine but get rid of it slower than in those who've received two doses? Sounds like better ground for the virus to evolve more quickly than it otherwise would have done?
|
|
jlend
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,832
Likes: 1,461
|
Post by jlend on Jan 2, 2021 18:41:54 GMT
Do any of these vaccines have an age dependent dose profile as per the flu vaccines? Surely, the immune system of older folk require a bit more of a kick start (in general terms that is). Maybe this will come in time as more trials are conducted and data is gathered. The switch to initial single dose and subsequent mix & match vaccines - what does this do to the evolution of the virus? We've got really high incidence (plenty of opportunities to mutate) and a growing number of people with some protection from their first dose. I guess these folk fight the virus better than they could have without a vaccine but get rid of it slower than in those who've received two doses? Sounds like better ground for the virus to evolve more quickly than it otherwise would have done? There isn't much in the way of long term data analysis on how long protection lasts for one dose or even two doses. With the Moderna vaccine for example there has been some early analysis that the vaccine may only be effective for less than a year in the over 56 age group even with 2 doses which would not be great. But the sample size was very small.
|
|