michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Dec 24, 2021 17:50:30 GMT
I'm not a fan but Putin said weeks ago that this Omicron variant could be a "live Covid vaccine", it's beginning to look like he might be proved right. Tell that to the 7 people in the UK who died this week of Omicron.
Putin, lips moving, lying.
7 out of 65 million ? I'm sure it will go up higher but if you made policy based on individual cases no matter how sad we'd be in a bad place. I'm thinking of enforced wearable lightning conductors, all traffic banned etc. Mind you, you might like the last example being a climate change ahem enthusiast.
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Post by bernythedolt on Dec 24, 2021 17:59:33 GMT
You "saw" it precisely BECAUSE you're an untrained muppet, so focussed on what you wanted to see, despite the mahoosive differences in the populations. This time, it seems you got lucky. And, now that there is relevant evidence, they're factoring that into the models... Is that a good example of what happens when you lose the debate ? I look forward to the apology. No, no apology needed, and no offence given or taken... they were my own words, and adrianc's comment is fair.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Dec 25, 2021 0:06:48 GMT
Christmas is celebrated 2 weeks late here (Orthodox) so I've been free to read my "favourite" online newspaper...
Covid - What we know so far
It is milder - if you catch it, the risk of needing hospital treatment is up to 70% lower than with previous variants - but that is largely because many of us have built up immunity from vaccines and past infections rather than changes to the virus
www.bbc.com/news/uk-59776415Surely even on this site I'm not alone in thinking this is utter rubbish ? |
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ilmoro
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'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
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Post by ilmoro on Dec 25, 2021 10:34:03 GMT
Christmas is celebrated 2 weeks late here (Orthodox) so I've been free to read my "favourite" online newspaper...
Covid - What we know so far
It is milder - if you catch it, the risk of needing hospital treatment is up to 70% lower than with previous variants - but that is largely because many of us have built up immunity from vaccines and past infections rather than changes to the virus
www.bbc.com/news/uk-59776415Surely even on this site I'm not alone in thinking this is utter rubbish ? Its not rubbish though it may be presumptious. While evidence suggest that antibody response is considerably reduced against omicron, there is early evidence that T cell response, which is an important part of fighting disease and restricting severity, remains more effective. So the jury is probably out on whether the virus itself causes less severe disease but people certainly will have built up some level of immunity. Where exactly on the scale between virus or immunity being the cause of the perceived mildness lies is TBD. Possibly academic when the outcome of people not dying is the goal whatever the reason.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Dec 25, 2021 12:56:48 GMT
Christmas is celebrated 2 weeks late here (Orthodox) so I've been free to read my "favourite" online newspaper...
Covid - What we know so far
It is milder - if you catch it, the risk of needing hospital treatment is up to 70% lower than with previous variants - but that is largely because many of us have built up immunity from vaccines and past infections rather than changes to the virus
www.bbc.com/news/uk-59776415Surely even on this site I'm not alone in thinking this is utter rubbish ? Its not rubbish though it may be presumptious. While evidence suggest that antibody response is considerably reduced against omicron, there is early evidence that T cell response, which is an important part of fighting disease and restricting severity, remains more effective. So the jury is probably out on whether the virus itself causes less severe disease but people certainly will have built up some level of immunity. Where exactly on the scale between virus or immunity being the cause of the perceived mildness lies is TBD. Possibly academic when the outcome of people not dying is the goal whatever the reason. But the point is if the reduction in severity is due to previously built up immunity against delta and the vaccines then that immunity should perform even better against the virus it was built up against i.e. delta (from exposure) and vanilla (from vaccines). In simple terms that built up immunity should perform even better against delta and vanilla leading to reduced risk of serious disease from those variants rather than omicron.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Dec 25, 2021 13:25:07 GMT
Its not rubbish though it may be presumptious. While evidence suggest that antibody response is considerably reduced against omicron, there is early evidence that T cell response, which is an important part of fighting disease and restricting severity, remains more effective. So the jury is probably out on whether the virus itself causes less severe disease but people certainly will have built up some level of immunity. Where exactly on the scale between virus or immunity being the cause of the perceived mildness lies is TBD. Possibly academic when the outcome of people not dying is the goal whatever the reason. But the point is if the reduction in severity is due to previously built up immunity against delta and the vaccines then that immunity should perform even better against the virus it was built up against i.e. delta (from exposure) and vanilla (from vaccines). In simple terms that built up immunity should perform even better against delta and vanilla leading to reduced risk of serious disease from those variants rather than omicron. Too many if's and should's in this statement for my liking.
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ilmoro
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Post by ilmoro on Dec 25, 2021 13:33:11 GMT
Its not rubbish though it may be presumptious. While evidence suggest that antibody response is considerably reduced against omicron, there is early evidence that T cell response, which is an important part of fighting disease and restricting severity, remains more effective. So the jury is probably out on whether the virus itself causes less severe disease but people certainly will have built up some level of immunity. Where exactly on the scale between virus or immunity being the cause of the perceived mildness lies is TBD. Possibly academic when the outcome of people not dying is the goal whatever the reason. But the point is if the reduction in severity is due to previously built up immunity against delta and the vaccines then that immunity should perform even better against the virus it was built up against i.e. delta (from exposure) and vanilla (from vaccines). In simple terms that built up immunity should perform even better against delta and vanilla leading to reduced risk of serious disease from those variants rather than omicron. That seems to be a bit too binary. Immunity will be against anything resembling coronavirus but more effective against something that is closer to the known model than something that shows greater deviation. The body is looking for a something with spikes, Omicron has spikes with a false nose & moustache, but enough of the body's defences could still see though the disguise to prevent serious disease but not to prevent infection.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Dec 25, 2021 13:54:25 GMT
But the point is if the reduction in severity is due to previously built up immunity against delta and the vaccines then that immunity should perform even better against the virus it was built up against i.e. delta (from exposure) and vanilla (from vaccines). In simple terms that built up immunity should perform even better against delta and vanilla leading to reduced risk of serious disease from those variants rather than omicron. That seems to be a bit too binary. Immunity will be against anything resembling coronavirus but more effective against something that is closer to the known model than something that shows greater deviation. The body is looking for a something with spikes, Omicron has spikes with a false nose & moustache, but enough of the body's defences could still see though the disguise to prevent serious disease but not to prevent infection. But using your analogy delta has spikes without anything false (to those who gained immunity via recent infection). Therefore, shouldn't delta present as being lower risk of hospitalisation than omicron? But that isn't the case or at least seems now unlikely to be the case.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Dec 25, 2021 15:53:06 GMT
That seems to be a bit too binary. Immunity will be against anything resembling coronavirus but more effective against something that is closer to the known model than something that shows greater deviation. The body is looking for a something with spikes, Omicron has spikes with a false nose & moustache, but enough of the body's defences could still see though the disguise to prevent serious disease but not to prevent infection. But using your analogy delta has spikes without anything false (to those who gained immunity via recent infection). Therefore, shouldn't delta present as being lower risk of hospitalisation than omicron? But that isn't the case or at least seems now unlikely to be the case. I've read that multiple times and I am still not sure I understand what you're trying to say but... I think you need to differentiate between infectivity and virulence. It seems that omicron is far more infectious than delta (changes to the spike protein etc), but less virulent. So, compared with delta, the risks for an arbitrary individual are that they are more likely to become infected with omicron, but that they are less likely to suffer from a severe case of the disease (and therefore less likely to be hospitalised). But across an arbitrary population, because omicron is so much more infective, we will see hospitalisation rates rise when compared with delta. Delta - fewer infections, a greater proportion of those infections resulting in severe disease (compared with omicron). Omicron - many more infections, a lesser proportion of those infections resulting in severe disease (compared with delta). Any protection provided by either vaccine or prior exposure will lessen the chances of both being infected and suffering from a severe case of the disease. Because of the nature of the changes in omicron's spike protein the protection against infection provided by both vaccination and prior exposure was significantly diminished, but protection against severe disease was largely maintained. But there was a lag between omicron's emergence and our understanding of how infectious it was, and our understanding of how virulent it was (because the data for the latter simply didn't exist). And that lag, combined with the knowledge that there were 30 odd mutations compared with delta, is what had people worried about omicron.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Dec 25, 2021 16:16:54 GMT
But using your analogy delta has spikes without anything false (to those who gained immunity via recent infection). Therefore, shouldn't delta present as being lower risk of hospitalisation than omicron? But that isn't the case or at least seems now unlikely to be the case. Agreed. Yes this is one of the messages in the press that I'm not sure is true. Time will tell but this is not the point I was badly trying to make. As above Agreed but that immunity would if anything be even more effective against the variant which produced it. i.e. immunity gained from delta should fight delta even better than omicron. That means you surely can't claim as the BBC have done in my original quote that the reason omicron results in less severe disease than delta is due to our immunity (as the same immunity is even better at fighting delta). There was quite a lot of data from S.Africa which other nations chose to ignore and just slammed the borders shut. I agree the two nations aren't directly comparable but the signs were there and still are. However, this isn't the point I was highlighting originally. I was making the point that the BBC seem to directly link booster uptake and previous delta exposure with omicron mildness. To me, it is clearly trying to push people into having the booster and such pushing might have the opposite affect. Overall I'm getting increasingly fed up at mainstream journalists writing persuasive articles when the subject matter is not 100% clear cut. Also lumping anti-lockdown types, anti-boosters for young children and other categories into the same boat as utter anti-vax, Bill Gates conspiracy loons.
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Post by moonraker on Dec 25, 2021 16:24:09 GMT
"Delta also said it had been badly impacted by the Omicron variant."
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Dec 25, 2021 17:00:12 GMT
That means you surely can't claim as the BBC have done in my original quote that the reason omicron results in less severe disease than delta is due to our immunity (as the same immunity is even better at fighting delta). I disagree. Vaccination against delta (or alpha), or prior infection, provides some level of immunity against omicron. Across the population as a whole I don't think it's unreasonable to conclude that this has contributed to omicron's apparent "less severe disease". It's not binary, there are many variables in play, "contributed to" is not the same as "due to", and experts tailoring their message for mass consumption are going to use different language to that which they'd use writing a paper for peer review. As would journalists.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Dec 25, 2021 17:32:59 GMT
That means you surely can't claim as the BBC have done in my original quote that the reason omicron results in less severe disease than delta is due to our immunity (as the same immunity is even better at fighting delta). It's not binary, there are many variables in play, "contributed to" is not the same as "due to", and experts tailoring their message for mass consumption are going to use different language to that which they'd use writing a paper for peer review. As would journalists. Why then doesn't that immunity gained from prior variants or vaccines provide better protection against those same variants? Why should it provide better protection from omicron (a variant that immunity hasn't seen) than say delta ?
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Dec 25, 2021 17:37:29 GMT
I don't believe that it does, and I don't think that I've seen any claims that it does.
EDIT: Except for the fact that if Omicron is less virulent than previous variants then in aggregate we might be receiving better protection.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Dec 25, 2021 18:31:12 GMT
So we've got to the point that (I think) we are agreeing that current immunity doesn't protect against omicron any more than other previous variants.
So how then can it be that the reason the omicron variant is apparently less dangerous to a given individual is due to immunity as the BBC claim? It must surely be something intrinsic to the omicron variant that makes it less harmful.
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