one21
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Post by one21 on Mar 20, 2020 20:25:06 GMT
Does anyone know if the recent ban on pubs and bars opening applies to clubs (Social club, British Legion or Con / Lib / Lab club).
Also does it apply to the bar at our golf club, or the course itself?
Typically all places where people group together I would assume. Just going on common sense instincts that is!
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Post by pepperpot on Mar 20, 2020 20:33:42 GMT
Does anyone know if the recent ban on pubs and bars opening applies to clubs (Social club, British Legion or Con / Lib / Lab club).
Also does it apply to the bar at our golf club, or the course itself?
Jesus.
I've been in self isolation since last Saturday when at the time the official line was to sing happy birthday. Reason? This thing has me scared. Properly scared.
o.k. lets ramp up the convesation.
Are you happy with a randomised cull of the population? The cull may take anyone. There are strong indications however that the likely age profile of this forum coupled with your avatars name means the distribution of the final cull has a high likelihood to include you.
Are you dying to play golf?
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Post by martin44 on Mar 20, 2020 20:46:59 GMT
I was pleased to hear the govt making provisions for business to look after there employees (80% wage coverage up to 2.5k a month)... but buggered if i can find anything for the self employed.  |
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Post by moonraker on Mar 20, 2020 20:59:38 GMT
"Self-employed people will not benefit from these grants, instead the protection for them will come through a more generous benefits system. They will also be able to pay tax later." From the BBC website. |
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Mar 20, 2020 21:00:17 GMT
Don't bother comparing or even looking at case numbers from the UK or anywhere in Europe, or indeed anywhere. The testing policies are different between countries, and almost no country anywhere is attempting to test any more than a small and biased fraction of the population, least of all a representative sample of the population.
The only useful and comparable figures are deaths. Except in places where they are concealing them, like, well, pick your favourite repressive dictatorship. <snip> The FT's live graphs (which I think someone posted yesterday too) illustrates this also. The graph showing just daily cases shows a fairly modest trendline for the UK. However, the daily number of deaths graph (below) shows us at a higher rate than Italy was at the corresponding stage. Obviously it's not the only factor at play, you also have Italy's especially elderly population to consider. So maybe ours will slow down, but is this the time to gamble and make aggressive assumptions?  edit: Italy entered lockdown on the 9th March, 11 days ago, so about day 13 on the graph above. The UK is on day 8. Do we really want to wait until the same day as Italy to introduce these measures? Are we happy with the way things are progressing in Italy? (and indeed Spain, who locked down at the day 8 stage - look at their trendline now). Meanwhile, CNN reports that "Chinese medical experts helping Italy deal with the crisis have said the restrictions imposed in Lombardy are "not strict enough." The government has now agreed that the military can be used to help enforce the lockdown" Now to go back to the start of this conversation - is it too harsh to forbid people having parties at home and participating in other recreational activities together? Why is this even a question at this stage?
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Mar 20, 2020 21:01:27 GMT
Does anyone know if the recent ban on pubs and bars opening applies to clubs (Social club, British Legion or Con / Lib / Lab club).
Also does it apply to the bar at our golf club, or the course itself?
Jesus.
I've been in self isolation since last Saturday when at the time the official line was to sing happy birthday. Reason? This thing has me scared. Properly scared.
o.k. lets ramp up the convesation.
Are you happy with a randomised cull of the population? The cull may take anyone. There are strong indications however that the likely age profile of this forum coupled with your avatars name means the distribution of the final cull has a high likelihood to include you.
Are you dying to play golf?
The cull will take mainly over 70s with underlying health risks. Am I happy with this no we are at risk, I also have a daughter in a high risk group am I happy with this no. We will just do what we can do to avoid this virus My daughter was just saying she may need to go into London, by tube bus etc for work. I said no way!
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michaelc
Member of DD Central
Say No To T.D.S.
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Post by michaelc on Mar 20, 2020 21:11:01 GMT
Does anyone know if the recent ban on pubs and bars opening applies to clubs (Social club, British Legion or Con / Lib / Lab club).
Also does it apply to the bar at our golf club, or the course itself?
Jesus.
I've been in self isolation since last Saturday when at the time the official line was to sing happy birthday. Reason? This thing has me scared. Properly scared.
o.k. lets ramp up the convesation.
Are you happy with a randomised cull of the population? The cull may take anyone. There are strong indications however that the likely age profile of this forum coupled with your avatars name means the distribution of the final cull has a high likelihood to include you.
Are you dying to play golf?
But it seems most people are going to get it at some point. Are you saying we should delay the "happy" day to give the NHS the best chance of being functional? It seems to me the NHS is not going to cope if this gets as big as the experts say it will so how does it help if you get it now or you get it in 9 months time after having a poor quality of life searching for food & bog paper and spending most of that time cooped up indoors draining vit D? I'm not an expert but I just haven't yet been persuaded its so obvious we all need to hibernate.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Mar 20, 2020 21:14:04 GMT
It helps because it provides time. By not getting it now you lessen the pressure on the NHS, its staff, and its resources ("flattening the curve" as they say). You also provide time for more herd immunity to build up, and time for a better testing regime to be put in place, and time for vaccine development to continue.
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star dust
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Post by star dust on Mar 20, 2020 21:18:25 GMT
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michaelc
Member of DD Central
Say No To T.D.S.
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Post by michaelc on Mar 20, 2020 21:21:01 GMT
It helps because it provides time. By not getting it now you lessen the pressure on the NHS, its staff, and its resources ("flattening the curve" as they say). You also provide time for more herd immunity to build up, and time for a better testing regime to be put in place, and time for vaccine development to continue. But if ICU capacity is say 10,000 does it make any difference if you've got 50,000 for 1 year, 100,000 for 6 months or 200,000 for 3 months needing that capacity?
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Mar 20, 2020 21:24:12 GMT
Does anyone know if the recent ban on pubs and bars opening applies to clubs (Social club, British Legion or Con / Lib / Lab club).
Also does it apply to the bar at our golf club, or the course itself?
Jesus.
I've been in self isolation since last Saturday when at the time the official line was to sing happy birthday. Reason? This thing has me scared. Properly scared.
o.k. lets ramp up the convesation.
Are you happy with a randomised cull of the population? The cull may take anyone. There are strong indications however that the likely age profile of this forum coupled with your avatars name means the distribution of the final cull has a high likelihood to include you.
Are you dying to play golf?
Fortunately I am of an age where they gave people a proper education, so don't need to sing happy birthday as I can count to 20. Also, I'm nowhere near the high risk age group, have no underlying health issues and live by myself.
Everyone should be concerned about the virus, and I do find it mind boggling that a few people selling iffy products in a Chinese market can bring the whole planet to the verge of meltdown. However, in reality the number of people that I might come into close contact with during a round of golf is tiny compared to those I might meet while shoping for food.
Not certain where my username comes into this. It was intended as a homage to a character from a 1960's US sitcom. I got the number wrong, but couldn't be bothered to change it.
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Post by moonraker on Mar 20, 2020 21:30:41 GMT
But it seems most people are going to get it at some point. Are you saying we should delay the "happy" day to give the NHS the best chance of being functional? It seems to me the NHS is not going to cope if this gets as big as the experts say it will so how does it help if you get it now or you get it in 9 months time after having a poor quality of life searching for food & bog paper and spending most of that time cooped up indoors draining vit D? I'm not an expert but I just haven't yet been persuaded its so obvious we all need to hibernate. As the virus gets bigger, NHS resources will become smaller, as staff catch the virus and burn out. Recalling recently-retired workers may help just a little, but how many will respond to the call? I wouldn't blame anyone who didn't.
I'm 75 in May, which seems a good milestone. Before this crisis, I didn't like the idea of losing more of my physical and mental abilities and though my very recent life has been good, I was apprehensive about the future; even more so, now.
I may be less phlegmatic were I to succumb to the virus.
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Post by martin44 on Mar 20, 2020 21:35:06 GMT
But.. the Tory's kept saying the self employed were the backbone...... S***houses.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Mar 20, 2020 21:36:52 GMT
It helps because it provides time. By not getting it now you lessen the pressure on the NHS, its staff, and its resources ("flattening the curve" as they say). You also provide time for more herd immunity to build up, and time for a better testing regime to be put in place, and time for vaccine development to continue. But if ICU capacity is say 10,000 does it make any difference if you've got 50,000 for 1 year, 100,000 for 6 months or 200,000 for 3 months needing that capacity? It's not just ICUs. It's GPs, pharmacies, social care workers, regular hospital beds, test capabilities, nurses, not denying any of that to somebody else who might need them.... And if you don't have it you can't infect anybody else who might need all of that.
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Stonk
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Post by Stonk on Mar 20, 2020 21:58:18 GMT
I went to the dentist yesterday for toothache which he managed to resolve. Because it was so quiet I managed to have a longish (15 minute) chat with him. He's in his mid-late forties and essentially his view was that it should be allowed to wash over us as quickly as possible. He thought the stuff about the curve was "BS" and likewise thought China was suppressing the numbers. It made me think more about that curve. If we're likely to go over the capacity line then isn't the important thing not so much keeping us from overshooting it by as little as possible but rather keeping the time period during which we overshoot as small as possible. If we spend a very long time above that capacity line, it will really take its toll - not just directly but in terms of things we're starting to see already such as food shortages etc. If its a wham bam "thank you" mam we can start to move on. Yes, in terms of raw maths you'd be looking at integrating under the curve above that line and minimizing the total area but there are other factors and time is quite an important one. The "critical care demand" line going over the "critical care capacity" line would be catastrophic in terms of the death toll. Your dentist does not know what he is talking about.
It is worth persevering and understanding why, because it is fundamental to the UK's plan. Here goes my effort; it won't be perfect, but I hope it is better than the Government's!
There are 3 types of death: - UNAVOIDABLE. Some infected people will die no matter what medical care they receive. You could give them the most timely and absolute best and most intensive care possible, and they would still die. They may be old, or unhealthy, or unlucky, or a combination. Overall it is looking like about 0.5% to 1.0% of infected people, but very heavily skewed towards the elderly.
- AVOIDABLE. If demand exceeds available resources, then some infected people will die who would not otherwise have died. - COLLATERAL. If demand exceeds available resources, then people with unrelated medical needs will die because they do not receive the treatment they normally would. While the demand line is below the capacity line, all the deaths are unavoidable. The number of deaths is proportional to the area under the demand line. Such a scenario is represented by the green line on the graph. ( Ignore the resurgence 6 months later: that's what would happen if all measures were promply removed after 5 months on an unvaccinated population, which is not going to happen. )
Whenever the demand line rises above the capacity line, then you have to consider two areas on the graph. The black line on the graph represents the unrestricted spread. Area A, bounded by the black line and below the red capacity line, contains the unavoidable deaths. Area B, beneath the black line and above the red line, contains the avoidable deaths.
When demand is above capacity: (1) The number of unavoidable deaths (area A) is higher. More people are infected, so this is obvious. You might argue that this is a red herring because ultimately everyone is going to be infected no matter what measures we take, so those whose death is unavoidable would eventually have been killed by the disease anyway. However, that's incorrect: the more time that passes, the greater the chance of a vaccine which would dramatically reduce the probability of unavoidable death.
(2) The number of avoidable deaths (area B) is huge. The black trajectory stays high for almost as long as the green trajectory, i.e., it is a sharp shock, but certainly not a short one. And the black trajectory goes extremely high, way above the zoomed section of the graph shown, up to about 280 on the vertical axis. Area B is enormous. (3) Furthermore, although the unavoidable deaths are proportional to area A, and the avoidable deaths are proportional to area B, the constants of proportionality are not the same -- area B has a higher multiplier. So it's not just a matter of the area under the black line; it's more like the area under the black line, but with the bit above the red line (most of it) counting double, or triple. The reason is that in area A, if a patient needs intensive care they receive it and have a positive probability of survival, whereas in area B if they need intensive care they do not receive it and they definitely die.
(4) Many more younger people will die. When demand is below capacity, mainly older people die. When demand massively exceeds capacity, virtually anyone who needs critical care will die. Although the probability of younger people needing critical care is lower, the sheer number of them infected means that it will be a lot of people.
(5) Additionally, there will be collateral deaths -- extremely difficult to quantify.
All these points apply whenever demand exceeds supply. Even for the much milder orange trajectory, whenever it passes above the red line there are avoidable deaths, with a higher multiplier on the area, plus more younger deaths, plus collateral deaths.
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