benaj
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Post by benaj on Oct 30, 2020 18:16:02 GMT
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Oct 30, 2020 18:19:55 GMT
Going back to the very start of this thread... Scintillating 400+ page thriller you had to go back and reread from the start? You're in for a long night <grin> No, I just missed with the mouse by a few pixels, and accidentally clicked on the thread title from the index, instead of the last page link...
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james100
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Post by james100 on Oct 30, 2020 18:47:33 GMT
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mrk
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Post by mrk on Oct 30, 2020 22:05:54 GMT
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Oct 30, 2020 22:26:09 GMT
Interesting. I actually opened up the p2p forum site to post something about exactly the same article. When I viewed the BBC it was virtually the top item. It contains this: It comes as figures from the Office for National Statistics suggested an earlier warning on Covid case numbers, issued by the government's chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, has turned out to be accurate. Speaking alongside chief medical adviser, Prof Chris Whitty, at Downing Street in September, Sir Patrick said the UK could see 50,000 new coronavirus cases a day by mid-October. The ONS estimated that there were about 52,000 new infections each day in homes in England alone in the week ending 23 October.So one persons warning has turned out to be accurate based on another bodies estimate? What is this total and utter rubbish? Perhaps of more interest than _whether_ is _why_ the BBC is supporting the government's advisors like this?
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Post by dan1 on Oct 30, 2020 22:35:25 GMT
National lockdown from 4th Nov - 1st Dec?
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Oct 30, 2020 22:47:58 GMT
The ONS estimated that there were about 52,000 new infections each day in homes in England alone in the week ending 23 October. ermm, yeah. That's what the ONS do. They randomly test a sample of the population and from that estimate the infection rate across the country. It's probably the best measure we have. And it conforms with modelling relied on at a previous point in time. That reassures me in as much as it goes some way to validating the modelling.
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mrk
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Post by mrk on Oct 30, 2020 23:43:45 GMT
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dovap
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Post by dovap on Oct 30, 2020 23:52:31 GMT
not sure whether to moan about a national lockdown or that we've not locked down yet - incessant whining gets so confusing these days......
just like the most of Western Europe innit
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Post by bracknellboy on Oct 31, 2020 7:14:41 GMT
.... The ONS estimated that there were about 52,000 new infections each day in homes in England alone in the week ending 23 October.So one persons warning has turned out to be accurate based on another bodies estimate? What is this total and utter rubbish? Perhaps of more interest than _whether_ is _why_ the BBC is supporting the government's advisors like this? Uhhh ? What ? The Office for National Statistics is the long standing official body charged with the collection and publication of statistics related to the economy, population and society for the UK. It is tasked with, constructs and operates an ongoing program of large scale C19 community testing - no doubt designed to be statistically rigorous, since that is their 'core business' and of course the point of the exercise - with the purpose of establishing on an ongoing basis the level of infection in the general population. And the outcomes it gets from this process is declared as 'utter rubbish' ? And by inference the BBC accused of bias/promulgating "fake news" by publishing this information ? michaelc : Sir, where is your evidence for this apparently strongly felt assertion ? Oh, as an aside. I read somewhere that numbers from the NHS crApp , based on people logging their symptoms, comes up with an estimate of 44k. I'm not sure how much I trust the data gathering from that (I'm not sure logging my symptoms or not into the app is the first thing I'd worry about if I couldn't breath but he hoh) but interesting that those numbers are not a million miles away from each other.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Oct 31, 2020 8:13:34 GMT
"I don't like the message, so I'll shoot the messenger".
As for lockdown - if it'd been done earlier, two weeks would have been enough. It now has to be a month because of the dither.
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Post by dan1 on Oct 31, 2020 9:29:50 GMT
.... The ONS estimated that there were about 52,000 new infections each day in homes in England alone in the week ending 23 October.So one persons warning has turned out to be accurate based on another bodies estimate? What is this total and utter rubbish? Perhaps of more interest than _whether_ is _why_ the BBC is supporting the government's advisors like this? Uhhh ? What ? The Office for National Statistics is the long standing official body charged with the collection and publication of statistics related to the economy, population and society for the UK. It is tasked with, constructs and operates an ongoing program of large scale C19 community testing - no doubt designed to be statistically rigorous, since that is their 'core business' and of course the point of the exercise - with the purpose of establishing on an ongoing basis the level of infection in the general population. And the outcomes it gets from this process is declared as 'utter rubbish' ? And by inference the BBC accused of bias/promulgating "fake news" by publishing this information ? michaelc : Sir, where is your evidence for this apparently strongly felt assertion ? Oh, as an aside. I read somewhere that numbers from the NHS crApp , based on people logging their symptoms, comes up with an estimate of 44k. I'm not sure how much I trust the data gathering from that (I'm not sure logging my symptoms or not into the app is the first thing I'd worry about if I couldn't breath but he hoh) but interesting that those numbers are not a million miles away from each other. The Covid Symptom Study by King's/Zoe (https://covid.joinzoe.com/data) has estimated daily infections of 43,708 as at 31 Oct from data between 13th and 27th October - UK coverage (i think), I can't see where they state CI's. The epidemiologist behind it, Tim Spector, reckons the asymptomatic rate based on antibody testing is 19% (see here) putting the infection rate at 54k assuming the 43,708 is symptomatics only (should be it's a symptom tracker afterall!). ONS estimates 51.9k in England from data between 17th and 23rd October - CI 38.5k to 79.2k. Important to note the ONS figures exclude care homes, hospitals, prisons and other residential settings. MRC BSU estimate 55,600 (38,400–81,600, 95% credible interval) for England as at 29 October. Broadly similar I guess. The outlier appears to be the ICL REACT-1 study but there are valid criticisms and their report contains basic errors (numbers literally don't add up in cases).
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travolta
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Post by travolta on Oct 31, 2020 9:38:54 GMT
'ere we go 'ere we go 'ere we go (again)
are we down hearted?
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Oct 31, 2020 9:44:29 GMT
'ere we go 'ere we go 'ere we go (again) are we down hearted? Not really. It's going about as expected. Here on the Welsh border, we're waiting to see the local Tory MP for a Welsh constituency do a shameless 180deg from last week's slagging-off of Drakeford's two-week lockdown to sycophantic support for Johnson's month.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Oct 31, 2020 9:46:13 GMT
No. I didn't suggest the ons stats are rubbish. I meant the BBC vindicating Whittys projection based upon further estimates. Most people assume infections are the actual number recorded and published not what they might be if everyone was tested.
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