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Post by geoffrey on Nov 20, 2014 13:43:12 GMT
You could have a 30 day 'reverse cooling off' period following all transfers. Any material change in a loan [in the 30 days] following a transfer results in the transfer being unwound. Or something similar... How about the Provision Fund will not cover any loan unit purchased in the last 60/120 days? Or non-amortizing loans that are within 1 year of the due date for the final/principal capital repayment will no longer be available for new purchase via the GEIA? That would reduce liquidity for those wanting to get out of the GEIA, but only for loans perceived to have become risky, and I guess those in the GEIA wouldn't care too much about a loan having become risky.
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Nov 21, 2014 4:30:30 GMT
It will be tweaked tomorrow morning to resolve chris: If the algorithm actually was tweaked today, the update hasn't had the desired effect. My GEIA has had 5.7% of its funding sitting idle all day, and there's been no activity whatsoever, despite there being at least half a dozen WT projects with units available on the Aftermarket. chris: Was the tweak made or not? My GEIA continued to sit with 5.7% unlent for until more than 24 hours had elapsed since my last transaction. At that point I got tired of waiting for something to happen, so I put another £10 into my GEIA. That triggered another round of Aftermarket buying. The system didn't buy much more of the one loan I had that I was overweight in. On the initial day, it bought No, Mo, Ab, Ca, Fa, and Sw, then repeated the cycle in the same order a second time before quitting with 7.1% of my £10 uninvested. After adding the second £10 it bought Mo, Ab, Ca, Fa, Sw, and No. (The order was the same as the previous day, but the starting point was different.) Each of those purchases was 20% of the cash available at the time of the purchase. Then it bought 15p of Ca. The reason for that amount is a mystery. It was about 5% of the available cash. It then bought 52p of Fa and 42p of Sw (those both were 20% of cash available) and stopped with £1.70 unlent. And there it sat. Until... A few hours later, someone must have offered some Co on the Aftermarket, so my GEIA bought 34p. Over the following eight hours, more parts must have been put up for sale and my GEIA bought 27p of Cu and another 21p of Cu. Those all were 20% of available cash. By then, the account was down to just 98p of available cash. The purchase amount algorithm changed at that point, and my next purchase was 20p more of Cu, followed three hours later by 20p of Co. That was at 1129 on the 19th, and there's been no activity since, although I still have 48p left to invest. The lack of activity might be because nobody has offered any more WT units for sale. Or maybe my GEIA has been put to the back of the queue and any units offered are going to MLIA lenders. Or maybe so many people have put money into their GEIAs that whenever anything new is added to the Aftermarket it is allocated by lottery and my number hasn't come up. The bottom line is that I now have an account where 97.6% of the money is invested and 2.4% is idle. There are plenty of units available in six WT loans, but the system isn't buying any of that for me. At this point, I haven't a clue when the rest of my money will be put to work, and the situation is uncomfortably like what went on at Zopa just before I gave up on them and started withdrawing. AC should be aware that at one time Zopa told their lenders that they should expect up to 2% of their money to be idle at all times. That made a lot of lenders unhappy. Hopefully AC can learn from that and not make a similar mistake. Zopa lenders complained that because of their 'dead' money they weren't earning the advertised rates. AC is likely to have the same problem unless they commit to paying the 7% on a lender's whole GEIA balance -- whether invested or not. (I believe Wellesley & Co do something similar.) I'll leave my GEIA alone for a little while and see what happens. The next thing I might try would be to recover the unlent money. That ought to be easy enough to do. If it is, then the way to get completely invested in a GEIA would be to put in more money than you want invested and then withdraw the surplus when your investment got to the desired level. That sounds like a reasonable workaround, but it requires good timing, and won't win any friends. Zopa lenders learned to do similar things, and it became a bit of a joke in the Zopa forum. After trying that, I suppose the next thing for me to try would be to withdraw lent funds. If the small bits of Co and Cu in my GEIA were put onto the Aftermarket, I expect they'd sell instantly. But what will happen with my little bits of the WT loans with hundreds of thousands of pound of units on the Aftermarket? If the selection of units to sell really is random, the odds of any of my GEIA holdings being selected when a buyer shows up must be rather infinitesimal. Will AC have to prioritise GEIA sales over ordinary lenders' sale in order to keep GEIA investors happy? Maybe they'll have to discount those units -- once that feature is re-enabled -- and cover the discount from the PF.
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Post by chris on Nov 21, 2014 6:10:36 GMT
The tweak hasn't been made yet, I've been pulled around a lot this week working on specific things for the business that have all been very high priority.
I'm absolutely aware of Zopa's problems and did loosly follow that thread in the general section which compared RS and Zopa with the latter failing to lend out the final portion of funds that would have qualified for cash back. Clearly that isn't something we're looking to replicate and the algorithm will be changed. Will update this thread once it's been implemented.
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pikestaff
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Post by pikestaff on Nov 21, 2014 7:59:53 GMT
I wonder why so many of the turbines are refurbished rather than new. Why would a working turbine be dismantled to move it elsewhere if it was still working? Are the newer ones so much bigger and / or more efficient, and if this is the case why not use a new turbine for the loan project rather than the refurbished one? Or is it simply the case of developers getting permission to put up modest wind turbines, then upgrading then for larger ones later without having the same difficulties getting planning permission? My understanding is the refurbs are coming from Denmark and Germany. See, for example, here:http://www.windturbines.ie/industrial/specifications.htm. There must be something in their local subsidy regimes which makes it worthwhile for them to put in new turbines (supporting local industry, which makes the turbines) and shipping the old ones over here, after refurbishment. Most likely the subsidy on the old turbines has run out but they get a new subsidy if they replace them.
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bigfoot12
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Post by bigfoot12 on Nov 21, 2014 9:45:24 GMT
... @chriswhat went on at Zopa just before I gave up on them and started withdrawing. AC should be aware that at one time Zopa told their lenders that they should expect up to 2% of their money to be idle at all times. That made a lot of lenders unhappy. Hopefully AC can learn from that and not make a similar mistake. Zopa lenders complained that because of their 'dead' money they weren't earning the advertised rates. mikes1531 you probably know this but Zopa seem to have changed their matching algorithm again. I too have been pulling money out for about a year, but for different reasons. The recent cash back offer tempted me back and I was surprised to learn that my money was behind that of existing lenders recycling their payments. My account hasn't settled down yet - ironically the credit of the cash back seems to have reset me to the back of the queue, but I will report in a few more days my average 'void' fraction. It is interesting to hear you experience on the GEIA, and I look forward to hearing about the improvements Chris is planning.
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bugs4me
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Post by bugs4me on Nov 21, 2014 10:05:11 GMT
chris: If the algorithm actually was tweaked today, the update hasn't had the desired effect. My GEIA has had 5.7% of its funding sitting idle all day, and there's been no activity whatsoever, despite there being at least half a dozen WT projects with units available on the Aftermarket. chris: Was the tweak made or not? My GEIA continued to sit with 5.7% unlent for until more than 24 hours had elapsed since my last transaction. At that point I got tired of waiting for something to happen, so I put another £10 into my GEIA. That triggered another round of Aftermarket buying. The system didn't buy much more of the one loan I had that I was overweight in. On the initial day, it bought No, Mo, Ab, Ca, Fa, and Sw, then repeated the cycle in the same order a second time before quitting with 7.1% of my £10 uninvested. After adding the second £10 it bought Mo, Ab, Ca, Fa, Sw, and No. (The order was the same as the previous day, but the starting point was different.) Each of those purchases was 20% of the cash available at the time of the purchase. Then it bought 15p of Ca. The reason for that amount is a mystery. It was about 5% of the available cash. It then bought 52p of Fa and 42p of Sw (those both were 20% of cash available) and stopped with £1.70 unlent. And there it sat. Until... A few hours later, someone must have offered some Co on the Aftermarket, so my GEIA bought 34p. Over the following eight hours, more parts must have been put up for sale and my GEIA bought 27p of Cu and another 21p of Cu. Those all were 20% of available cash. By then, the account was down to just 98p of available cash. The purchase amount algorithm changed at that point, and my next purchase was 20p more of Cu, followed three hours later by 20p of Co. That was at 1129 on the 19th, and there's been no activity since, although I still have 48p left to invest. The lack of activity might be because nobody has offered any more WT units for sale. Or maybe my GEIA has been put to the back of the queue and any units offered are going to MLIA lenders. Or maybe so many people have put money into their GEIAs that whenever anything new is added to the Aftermarket it is allocated by lottery and my number hasn't come up. The bottom line is that I now have an account where 97.6% of the money is invested and 2.4% is idle. There are plenty of units available in six WT loans, but the system isn't buying any of that for me. At this point, I haven't a clue when the rest of my money will be put to work, and the situation is uncomfortably like what went on at Zopa just before I gave up on them and started withdrawing. AC should be aware that at one time Zopa told their lenders that they should expect up to 2% of their money to be idle at all times. That made a lot of lenders unhappy. Hopefully AC can learn from that and not make a similar mistake. Zopa lenders complained that because of their 'dead' money they weren't earning the advertised rates. AC is likely to have the same problem unless they commit to paying the 7% on a lender's whole GEIA balance -- whether invested or not. (I believe Wellesley & Co do something similar.) I'll leave my GEIA alone for a little while and see what happens. The next thing I might try would be to recover the unlent money. That ought to be easy enough to do. If it is, then the way to get completely invested in a GEIA would be to put in more money than you want invested and then withdraw the surplus when your investment got to the desired level. That sounds like a reasonable workaround, but it requires good timing, and won't win any friends. Zopa lenders learned to do similar things, and it became a bit of a joke in the Zopa forum. After trying that, I suppose the next thing for me to try would be to withdraw lent funds. If the small bits of Co and Cu in my GEIA were put onto the Aftermarket, I expect they'd sell instantly. But what will happen with my little bits of the WT loans with hundreds of thousands of pound of units on the Aftermarket? If the selection of units to sell really is random, the odds of any of my GEIA holdings being selected when a buyer shows up must be rather infinitesimal. Will AC have to prioritise GEIA sales over ordinary lenders' sale in order to keep GEIA investors happy? Maybe they'll have to discount those units -- once that feature is re-enabled -- and cover the discount from the PF. Please keep us up to speed on your experiences mikes1531 as if I got involved in the GEIA I would prefer not to retrace my experiences at Z with unknown dead fund time. I eventually found my time at Z anything but a joke. It became pure frustration although I suspect your 'joke' word was mentioned tongue in cheek. It was a funny coincidence that the changes to the algorithm did seem to take place at the same time as institutional funds arrived - okay, I'll concede it was just a coincidence!!!! The difference though is that AC are prepared to engage with the community here unlike......
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bigfoot12
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Post by bigfoot12 on Nov 21, 2014 10:43:32 GMT
Maybe they'll have to discount those units -- once that feature is re-enabled -- and cover the discount from the PF. Why would they want to favour lenders exiting over those staying? If you want instant access be satisfied with 0.75% at your favourite bank. If units are being discounted the seller should pay for the discount.
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sqh
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Before P2P, savers put a guinea in a piggy bank, now they smash the banks to become guinea pigs.
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Post by sqh on Nov 21, 2014 11:13:59 GMT
A few hours later, someone must have offered some Co on the Aftermarket, so my GEIA bought 34p. Over the following eight hours, more parts must have been put up for sale and my GEIA bought 27p of Cu and another 21p of Cu. Those all were 20% of available cash. By then, the account was down to just 98p of available cash. The purchase amount algorithm changed at that point, and my next purchase was 20p more of Cu, followed three hours later by 20p of Co. That was at 1129 on the 19th, and there's been no activity since, although I still have 48p left to invest. The lack of activity might be because nobody has offered any more WT units for sale. Or maybe my GEIA has been put to the back of the queue and any units offered are going to MLIA lenders. Or maybe so many people have put money into their GEIAs that whenever anything new is added to the Aftermarket it is allocated by lottery and my number hasn't come up. The bottom line is that I now have an account where 97.6% of the money is invested and 2.4% is idle. There are plenty of units available in six WT loans, but the system isn't buying any of that for me. I sold £1000 of Co. WT at 11:29 on the 19th. At first I thought there were no takers, but after about 2 minutes the MLIA balance suddenly jumped £1000. My statement shows the nice round £1000 had been smashed into 53 bits starting from £0.01 and filled a complete page. Very messy. Imagine what will happen when there are hundreds of people using the GEIA, even selling a £20 chunk could fill pages of your statement.
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niceguy37
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Post by niceguy37 on Nov 21, 2014 11:16:33 GMT
chris: If the algorithm actually was tweaked today, the update hasn't had the desired effect. My GEIA has had 5.7% of its funding sitting idle all day, and there's been no activity whatsoever, despite there being at least half a dozen WT projects with units available on the Aftermarket. chris: Was the tweak made or not? My GEIA continued to sit with 5.7% unlent for until more than 24 hours had elapsed since my last transaction. At that point I got tired of waiting for something to happen, so I put another £10 into my GEIA. That triggered another round of Aftermarket buying. The system didn't buy much more of the one loan I had that I was overweight in. On the initial day, it bought No, Mo, Ab, Ca, Fa, and Sw, then repeated the cycle in the same order a second time before quitting with 7.1% of my £10 uninvested. After adding the second £10 it bought Mo, Ab, Ca, Fa, Sw, and No. (The order was the same as the previous day, but the starting point was different.) Each of those purchases was 20% of the cash available at the time of the purchase. Then it bought 15p of Ca. The reason for that amount is a mystery. It was about 5% of the available cash. It then bought 52p of Fa and 42p of Sw (those both were 20% of cash available) and stopped with £1.70 unlent. And there it sat. Until... A few hours later, someone must have offered some Co on the Aftermarket, so my GEIA bought 34p. Over the following eight hours, more parts must have been put up for sale and my GEIA bought 27p of Cu and another 21p of Cu. Those all were 20% of available cash. By then, the account was down to just 98p of available cash. The purchase amount algorithm changed at that point, and my next purchase was 20p more of Cu, followed three hours later by 20p of Co. That was at 1129 on the 19th, and there's been no activity since, although I still have 48p left to invest. The lack of activity might be because nobody has offered any more WT units for sale. Or maybe my GEIA has been put to the back of the queue and any units offered are going to MLIA lenders. Or maybe so many people have put money into their GEIAs that whenever anything new is added to the Aftermarket it is allocated by lottery and my number hasn't come up. The bottom line is that I now have an account where 97.6% of the money is invested and 2.4% is idle. There are plenty of units available in six WT loans, but the system isn't buying any of that for me. At this point, I haven't a clue when the rest of my money will be put to work, and the situation is uncomfortably like what went on at Zopa just before I gave up on them and started withdrawing. AC should be aware that at one time Zopa told their lenders that they should expect up to 2% of their money to be idle at all times. That made a lot of lenders unhappy. Hopefully AC can learn from that and not make a similar mistake. Zopa lenders complained that because of their 'dead' money they weren't earning the advertised rates. AC is likely to have the same problem unless they commit to paying the 7% on a lender's whole GEIA balance -- whether invested or not. (I believe Wellesley & Co do something similar.) I'll leave my GEIA alone for a little while and see what happens. The next thing I might try would be to recover the unlent money. That ought to be easy enough to do. If it is, then the way to get completely invested in a GEIA would be to put in more money than you want invested and then withdraw the surplus when your investment got to the desired level. That sounds like a reasonable workaround, but it requires good timing, and won't win any friends. Zopa lenders learned to do similar things, and it became a bit of a joke in the Zopa forum. After trying that, I suppose the next thing for me to try would be to withdraw lent funds. If the small bits of Co and Cu in my GEIA were put onto the Aftermarket, I expect they'd sell instantly. But what will happen with my little bits of the WT loans with hundreds of thousands of pound of units on the Aftermarket? If the selection of units to sell really is random, the odds of any of my GEIA holdings being selected when a buyer shows up must be rather infinitesimal. Will AC have to prioritise GEIA sales over ordinary lenders' sale in order to keep GEIA investors happy? Maybe they'll have to discount those units -- once that feature is re-enabled -- and cover the discount from the PF. How about a database query to select all qualifying green loans with available balance. Then extract a list of the lender's existing loan balances (which might be zero) in those available loans, to give a set of loans with lender balances { b1, b2, b3, ..., bn }. Call the total to invest "I", and the number of loans "n". We want to calculate the amount to buy to top up the existing loan balance to a uniform level so each loan is the same for maximum diversification. Therefore the amount to be purchased in each loan is ((sum of {b} + I) / n) - bx, where bx is the lender's current balance for that loan. The algorithm could also, when it's buying the last loan in it's list simply use all it's remaining balance on that loan.
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bigfoot12
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Post by bigfoot12 on Nov 21, 2014 13:07:01 GMT
chris, if I sell part of my GEIA holding does it preserve the 20% max holding, or does it sell as much as possible of what it can?
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Nov 22, 2014 0:37:51 GMT
I eventually found my time at Z anything but a joke. It became pure frustration although I suspect your 'joke' word was mentioned tongue in cheek. I'd agree that people were frustrated by the situation, but the fact that you could get around the issue of slow lending by depositing more than you wanted to lend in order to increase the amount you lent to each borrower and then withdraw the surplus once you had lent what you wanted to was a bit of a joke. IIRC, the extra funds deposited were referred to as 'catalyst' money. And the fact that you could manipulate the system this way did make the matching algorithm a bit of a laughing stock in the forum. But no, it wasn't really funny. It was sad.
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Nov 22, 2014 0:46:41 GMT
That was at 1129 on the 19th, and there's been no activity since, although I still have 48p left to invest. I'll leave my GEIA alone for a little while and see what happens. OK. Here's what happened next... 46 hours later, at 0902 on 21/Nov, I picked up another 20p of Bu. A minute later, I picked up 8p more of Bu. I haven't a clue why that amount. So now I'm down to 20p available. The saga continues.
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Vero
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Post by Vero on Nov 22, 2014 0:57:53 GMT
and the sagas continue, mikes1531... I put £100 into GEIA 12 minutes ago, and here is what GEIA decided to do with it:
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Nov 22, 2014 1:18:44 GMT
Maybe they'll have to discount those units -- once that feature is re-enabled -- and cover the discount from the PF. Why would they want to favour lenders exiting over those staying? If you want instant access be satisfied with 0.75% at your favourite bank. If units are being discounted the seller should pay for the discount. I understand the point, but my answer is... in order to keep their GEIA investors happy. In marketing the GEIA, AC are bound to mention the existence of the Aftermarket. And while I'm sure they'll include the usual caveats about there needing to be people wanting to buy in order for investors to sell, the exit option actually has to work in order to be of any use to investors. The problem with the GEIA is that most of the investment will be going into loans with lots of units available in the Aftermarket, and trying to sell units in those loans can be a slow and painful process. Perhaps after a while of operation most GEIAs will contain some loans unavailable in the Aftermarket, such as the bits of Bu, Co, and Cu that I've already picked up in my test GEIA. If, when an investor asks to make a withdrawal, those units are the ones selected for disposal, then they ought to sell quickly and everyone would be happy. And that might satisfy the typical partial withdrawal. So perhaps there won't be a problem. But if, on the other hand, GEIA investors find they can't get out, that info will spread and AC could find themselves having difficulty obtaining GEIA investors. It's probably a case of trying it and seeing how it works. And then tweaking the system if necessary. It may seem counter-intuitive, but there could be a significant advantage for AC in making it easier for investors to exit. SS, for instance, has prioritised their 'ordinary' lenders over their underwriters in their secondary market. If there are underwriter units for sale when a lender wants to exit, the lender's units are put at the front of the queue to be sold. I expect the underwriters don't particularly like this, but the ordinary investors probably appreciate it greatly. So much so, I expect, that they'll invest a lot more in the platform because they'll feel they have a good chance of being able to exit if they should need to. And that 'if' is very important. There actually may not be many investors who need to exit, so most of their money will stay invested and provide funds for SS to lend, but the possibility of exiting easily will keep people happy and willing to invest. And in the end, the impact on the underwriters could be minimal.
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Nov 22, 2014 1:33:39 GMT
and the sagas continue, mikes1531... I put £100 into GEIA 12 minutes ago, and here is what GEIA decided to do with it: That's consistent with what happened to me. Until Chris adjusts the system, I expect the nearly £11 remaining will stay uninvested until someone chooses to sell a bit of a WT loan that Vero doesn't already hold. That might happen quickly, or it might not. But until it does, £100 will have been put into the GEIA, but only £89 will have been invested and earning 7%. The rate of return on the £100 in the account at the moment is just 89% of 7%, which is 6.23%. That's why the purchasing algorithm needs tweaking. But as pointed out in a previous post, if the entire £100 had been placed into loans with significant amounts available on the Aftermarket, it could be quite difficult to effect even a small withdrawal. So perhaps waiting a bit to deploy that last £11 into more easily sold units still might be the best thing to do for the GEIA investor.
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