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Post by Mr Smith on Feb 28, 2020 8:44:52 GMT
Looks like the Corona Virus is causing a black swan event.
The financial markets dont sell off like this unless they think something is seriously wrong.
Are we about to see all the SMEs struggling to pay back their debt ?
Will FC survive this ?
Have you started stocking up ?
We have young children so would be wrong of us not to, currently have 1 months food supply.
DONT PANIC
DONT PANIC
DONT PANIC
Plan for the worst, hope for the best
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blender
Member of DD Central
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Post by blender on Feb 28, 2020 9:19:18 GMT
I'm thinking of blowing all the cash and killing myself before the virus gets here. Do you think that's a good idea?
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ceejay
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Post by ceejay on Feb 28, 2020 9:47:44 GMT
I'm thinking of blowing all the cash and killing myself before the virus gets here. Do you think that's a good idea? I think that's an excellent idea. But why not send me the cash, instead? I'll take good care of it.
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ceejay
Posts: 975
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Post by ceejay on Feb 28, 2020 9:51:45 GMT
Looks like the Corona Virus is causing a black swan event. The financial markets dont sell off like this unless they think something is seriously wrong. Are we about to see all the SMEs struggling to pay back their debt ? ... Is this a good time to cash in any dubious-looking P2P investments (are there any that aren't) and stand by to pile in on S&S? Not quite yet on the piling-in, of course, I'm pretty sure this particular knife has further to fall. But, still...
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dorset
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Post by dorset on Feb 28, 2020 10:04:46 GMT
This is not a black swan event. Having been responsible for large business projects in China and having walked around the disgusting wet markets I'm only surprised this has not happened earlier.
Also beware the naive UK media parroting the Chinese government statistics. Serious informed sources estimate the actual cases to be 10 to 20 fold understated by China. In other words you probably have 1 million cases and rising in China.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Feb 28, 2020 10:15:02 GMT
Given SARS originated in China, not at all a Black Swan event.
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Post by bracknellboy on Feb 28, 2020 10:25:10 GMT
.... Also beware the naive UK media parroting the Chinese government statistics. Serious informed sources estimate the actual cases to be 10 to 20 fold understated by China. In other words you probably have 1 million cases and rising in China. the potential for this to be true is what does genuinely does worry me.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Feb 28, 2020 12:20:36 GMT
20x the number of cases just makes the mortality rate look slightly better than regular flu. 20x the number of fatalities makes it a whole lot scarier..
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Feb 28, 2020 12:53:51 GMT
At least it provides respite from the 1.5% club over on the “selling loans” thread.
But yes there will be a recession, bad debt will increase and people will lose money - that’s what happens in recessions. Will you lose as much as your equity portfolio? No. Will you lose more than your BS deposit a/c? Yes.
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Post by takeshi on Feb 28, 2020 13:09:14 GMT
The real world is messy, reporting poor, many people apparently experience mild or no symptoms. Small, but accurate figures from the BBC site a couple of days ago:- "More than 600 of the 3,700 people on board a British-registered Diamond Princess cruise ship docked in the Japanese port of Yokohama were diagnosed with the virus .... Three people died." This has been updated to 700 with virus - no additional deaths. (3/700) 0.42 fatality rate? or is it (3/3700) 0.08%? I guess the close quarters on board make conditions for the virus to spread ideal - many of the passengers will be elderly and vulnerable. Tragic obviously - but low fatality rate. I'm no expert - & probably too early to say. This the best overview I've seen. www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/ |
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Post by takeshi on Feb 28, 2020 13:42:24 GMT
Mirror.co.uk Are reporting death toll on cruise ship now 6 - 1 UK national.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Feb 28, 2020 13:54:41 GMT
Mirror.co.uk Are reporting death toll on cruise ship now 6 - 1 UK national. so 6 of 700 so far it is a cohort where we can be sure there weren't missed cases as everyone was tested so it will be the best estimate of an overall mortality (within the constraints of a relatively small sample size). What we don't know (or do we?) is the make up of people on the cruise - was it more likely to be elderly/frail than the average population, which would skew the fatality rate upwards?
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m2btj
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Post by m2btj on Feb 28, 2020 14:09:33 GMT
19 confirmed cases in the UK to date....what's that as a % of a population of 67 million?
BTW may only prove fatal for one or two of the 19.
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Post by herringbone on Feb 28, 2020 14:16:31 GMT
The death rate is looking like 1-2% at the moment, but that could change. The true rate won't be known until those with the virus either recover or die. It could also mutate to become more (or less) deadly.
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agent69
Member of DD Central
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Post by agent69 on Feb 28, 2020 16:08:09 GMT
19 confirmed cases in the UK to date....what's that as a % of a population of 67 million? BTW may only prove fatal for one or two of the 19. So to summarise:
- 7 - 10 days ago there were 9 people in the country suffering from the virus
- Today there are 10 people in this country suffering from the virus (4 of which contracted it on the Japnese cruise ship).
Not ideal, but hardly a cause for panic
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