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Post by shanghaiscouse on Feb 28, 2020 17:46:15 GMT
It will certainly be a wonderful excuse for even more losses on loans. Both the borrowers and FC will seize this chance with both hands.
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Post by shanghaiscouse on Feb 28, 2020 17:47:30 GMT
.... Also beware the naive UK media parroting the Chinese government statistics. Serious informed sources estimate the actual cases to be 10 to 20 fold understated by China. In other words you probably have 1 million cases and rising in China. the potential for this to be true is what does genuinely does worry me. And given that Bird flu also came from China around 2011, then in fact its more like a migrating bird than a black swan, one which returns every ten years.
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Post by shanghaiscouse on Feb 28, 2020 17:57:01 GMT
This is not a black swan event. Having been responsible for large business projects in China and having walked around the disgusting wet markets I'm only surprised this has not happened earlier. Also beware the naive UK media parroting the Chinese government statistics. Serious informed sources estimate the actual cases to be 10 to 20 fold understated by China. In other words you probably have 1 million cases and rising in China. That's interesting, I lived in China 18 years. I left because during the last 3 years I was there I was in hospital twice with pneumonia-like problems, each time for 7-10 days. These things are always floating around in China, if you let yourself get worn down then expose yourself to obvious danger you can get it. The first time I was poisoned by the fire brigade who did a drill in our 5* office building and put smoke up the stairwell containing an irritant to cause cough. 2 hours later I was in hospital at 85% blood oxygen level. The second time I was really tired as I hadn't slept then I took a subway ride surrounded by hardcore peasants who were coughing all over me. Luckliy I didn't have a temperature or they would have isolated me as H1N1 Bird Flu was the disease du jour. I got deep pneumonia with lung crackling and had to have a bronchioscopy with no sedative as mine wore off because the woman ahead of me screamed so much it took twice as long as it should. I got some permanent damage so that was the end of China for me.
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m2btj
Member of DD Central
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Likes: 772
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Post by m2btj on Feb 29, 2020 11:17:41 GMT
This is not a black swan event. Having been responsible for large business projects in China and having walked around the disgusting wet markets I'm only surprised this has not happened earlier. Also beware the naive UK media parroting the Chinese government statistics. Serious informed sources estimate the actual cases to be 10 to 20 fold understated by China. In other words you probably have 1 million cases and rising in China. That's interesting, I lived in China 18 years. I left because during the last 3 years I was there I was in hospital twice with pneumonia-like problems, each time for 7-10 days. These things are always floating around in China, if you let yourself get worn down then expose yourself to obvious danger you can get it. The first time I was poisoned by the fire brigade who did a drill in our 5* office building and put smoke up the stairwell containing an irritant to cause cough. 2 hours later I was in hospital at 85% blood oxygen level. The second time I was really tired as I hadn't slept then I took a subway ride surrounded by hardcore peasants who were coughing all over me. Luckliy I didn't have a temperature or they would have isolated me as H1N1 Bird Flu was the disease du jour. I got deep pneumonia with lung crackling and had to have a bronchioscopy with no sedative as mine wore off because the woman ahead of me screamed so much it took twice as long as it should. I got some permanent damage so that was the end of China for me. I remember that Chinese had a penchant for spitting in public, which doesn't do a lot for public health. I found it most distasteful but they seemed to think they were spitting out some sort of devil!
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blender
Member of DD Central
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Post by blender on Feb 29, 2020 17:22:07 GMT
I'm thinking of blowing all the cash and killing myself before the virus gets here. Do you think that's a good idea? I think that's an excellent idea. But why not send me the cash, instead? I'll take good care of it. Thanks, I have £100k for you ceejay , but I have to make a small payment to have it released and transferred to you. Would you send me £1000 please, and make it snappy because that virus is getting close.
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ceejay
Posts: 975
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Post by ceejay on Feb 29, 2020 18:22:29 GMT
I think that's an excellent idea. But why not send me the cash, instead? I'll take good care of it. Thanks, I have £100k for you ceejay , but I have to make a small payment to have it released and transferred to you. Would you send me £1000 please, and make it snappy because that virus is getting close. Great! Just send me your bank details, address, date of birth, national insurance number and shoe size and I'll send it right over!
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dorset
Member of DD Central
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Post by dorset on Mar 6, 2020 17:04:26 GMT
It’s clear that we are fast approaching a severe credit crunch for SMEs and a general recession for the economy as a whole.
Would expect to soon see a sharp spike in FC loan defaults.
This will blow the FC business model out of the water. Perhaps the markets have now realised that there isn’t an investable business here after all (share price down to 62p as I write).
Changed my own strategy which was to gently run out my FC loan book (all pre 2017). Put the lot (only £7k down from £50k at peak) up for sale last week. Will take a good while but the quicker I am out the better.
On a positive note my heavy defaults in 2018 and 2019 are now starting to show decent recoveries which has put me back into the black.
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Post by Mr Smith on Mar 9, 2020 11:31:55 GMT
It’s clear that we are fast approaching a severe credit crunch for SMEs and a general recession for the economy as a whole. Would expect to soon see a sharp spike in FC loan defaults. This will blow the FC business model out of the water. Perhaps the markets have now realised that there isn’t an investable business here after all (share price down to 62p as I write). Changed my own strategy which was to gently run out my FC loan book (all pre 2017). Put the lot (only £7k down from £50k at peak) up for sale last week. Will take a good while but the quicker I am out the better. On a positive note my heavy defaults in 2018 and 2019 are now starting to show decent recoveries which has put me back into the black. The depression wasn't avoided in 2008, it was delayed and made worse. There is a lot of pain fast approaching a lot of over levered greedy feckless morons.
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