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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2014 10:49:20 GMT
There is an awful lot of money sitting at 5.9% and above (on the 5 year market), forcing me to settle for 5.8% today rather than queueing my money that might take days to be accepted.
There seems to be a lot of money there. I am wondering if people other than The Man In The Street is keeping rates below 6% to make RateSetter look unattractive.
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oldgrumpy
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Post by oldgrumpy on Nov 21, 2014 11:12:52 GMT
It's people who put money in at 5.8% ( yes, you ........... ahem ... and me) that delay the 5.9% pot being lent out and and a return to 6%+
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Post by davee39 on Nov 21, 2014 11:19:44 GMT
The tragedy of the man who settled for 5.8% has yet to be written.
Oh woe, oh sadness, oh dear.
It could even fall to a toe curling 5.7% once THEY get involved.
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oldgrumpy
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Post by oldgrumpy on Nov 21, 2014 11:45:34 GMT
Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaarghhh! Someone's done it!!!* Two infidels have stuck in £59.66 at .............5.7% Tragedy? Time to employ the dramatic skills of William Ratespeare
* but my little repayment has been lent out already today........forsooth
Twelfth Rate Much ado about Rating As you Rate it. Rate for Rate. A Midsummer Night's Rate Rateicles Hamrate MacRate Titus Andrateicus
yorkshireman will like this one: Fixing the Rate Part IV
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Post by yorkshireman on Nov 21, 2014 11:55:33 GMT
My thoughts on this are well documented on other threads, in view of the financial scandals that have been exposed nothing would surprise me.
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c88dnf
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Post by c88dnf on Nov 21, 2014 12:38:47 GMT
There is an awful lot of money sitting at 5.9% and above (on the 5 year market), forcing me to settle for 5.8% today rather than queueing my money that might take days to be accepted. There seems to be a lot of money there. I am wondering if people other than The Man In The Street is keeping rates below 6% to make RateSetter look unattractive. Ah, there's nothing like a good conspiracy theory! Of course, it could just be that RS' weekly lending has slowed considerably recently while funds have continued to flow in. Go back 14/15 weeks and the 5 year queue was getting shorter week-on-week as demand exceeded supply. Now it's just about level, but in some weeks recently supply has exceeded demand. Hence lower rates if people want cash lent out quickly. Figures & graphs posted in the thread I started back in October when the trend started to become apparent: p2pindependentforum.com/thread/1504/ratesetter-weekly-lending-drifting-downwards
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sl75
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Post by sl75 on Nov 21, 2014 12:45:52 GMT
There is an awful lot of money sitting at 5.9% and above (on the 5 year market), forcing me to settle for 5.8% today rather than queueing my money that might take days to be accepted. There seems to be a lot of money there. I am wondering if people other than The Man In The Street is keeping rates below 6% to make RateSetter look unattractive. I only see £668.6k at 5.9% - at present matching volumes, that's probably no more than a couple of days worth. (from that page right now, last 30 days: 4 year matches £1,257k, 5 year matches: £10,698k, total £11,955k, an average of just under £400k per day) The only "manipulation" seems to me as burying the volume information into a page that's not directly available at the exact moment of placing the offer, so that people who have no sense of scale see this £668.6k, think "that sounds like an awful lot of money", and undercut it, rather than waiting the day or two it would take to lock in a higher rate for up to 5 years! I wonder if it would make sense to have the "matches last 24 hours: NNN" (being a number of matches, and not directly related to a £ value) replaced with an "estimated daily volume £XXXk" or similar, so that the size of the queue can be more easily related to anticipated time to lend?
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oldgrumpy
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Post by oldgrumpy on Nov 21, 2014 13:09:48 GMT
It is obvious that rates will be a little lower now that RS advertises. More cash coming in. As for just under £700k in 5.9% this morning, I recokoned that it would not be lent out by Sunday pm (expect the pot to be about £200K by then), then another big lump would come in on Monday, with every possibility RS would make 5.8 market rate then, so I settled for 5.8% on a small tranche!
No big deal.
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jo
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Post by jo on Nov 21, 2014 13:56:47 GMT
I think it's just market forces. As tough as it is to reconcile after years of low rates, both retail and wholesale rates have fallen this year and are still falling. Extraordinary monetary policy is no longer extraordinary - it's here to stay. Try getting elected if you don't print. Try getting tenure as an economics lecturer if you don't support printing etc etc. Jeez,that went o/t quickly - the first two lines apply though.
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pikestaff
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Post by pikestaff on Nov 21, 2014 14:13:08 GMT
There is an awful lot of money sitting at 5.9% and above (on the 5 year market), forcing me to settle for 5.8% today rather than queueing my money that might take days to be accepted. There seems to be a lot of money there. I am wondering if people other than The Man In The Street is keeping rates below 6% to make RateSetter look unattractive. I only see £668.6k at 5.9% - at present matching volumes, that's probably no more than a couple of days worth. (from that page right now, last 30 days: 4 year matches £1,257k, 5 year matches: £10,698k, total £11,955k, an average of just under £400k per day) The only "manipulation" seems to me as burying the volume information into a page that's not directly available at the exact moment of placing the offer, so that people who have no sense of scale see this £668.6k, think "that sounds like an awful lot of money", and undercut it, rather than waiting the day or two it would take to lock in a higher rate for up to 5 years! I wonder if it would make sense to have the "matches last 24 hours: NNN" (being a number of matches, and not directly related to a £ value) replaced with an "estimated daily volume £XXXk" or similar, so that the size of the queue can be more easily related to anticipated time to lend? I agree. No sign of manipulation, just market forces. What we have is an unstable equilibrium. If lenders stay "strong" we should be able to get our money lent at 5.9% but if enough weaken the going rate will fall to 5.8% and then the game of chicken will begin again. Publishing more meaningful volume information on the lending page might indeed help us to stay strong, which is probably why we won't get it. IMO the conspiracy being guarded against (not entirely successfully) is the emergence of an informal lenders' cartel .
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Post by geoffrey on Nov 21, 2014 16:49:16 GMT
As I noted in the monthly demand thread early this morning, there is a truly whopping amount of pending borrower demand in the <1-year market, if the volume info is to be believed:
£17.2 million? Excuse my French, but ***? Where will the lender funds come from to cover that? Expect rates of 20%+ on the 1-year market... /sarc
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markr
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Post by markr on Nov 21, 2014 17:49:05 GMT
5.9% has been matching in 3 days recently; my Wednesday morning dollop was matched this afternoon, yesterday morning's is £230k in the queue, I had an early repayment that I put back last night that's now at £330k and this morning's entry is at £480k. Given we've already calculated that it's worth waiting a couple of weeks for an extra 0.1%, I'm not dropping yet.
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Post by rarrar on Nov 21, 2014 21:31:01 GMT
5.9% has been matching in 3 days recently; my Wednesday morning dollop was matched this afternoon,.... Agree: Just matched at 5.9% after 2/3 days - thats quick enough on a 5 year loan. Its the 3 year loans which have dire rates and slow matching. 1 year isnt much better.
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jonbvn
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Post by jonbvn on Nov 25, 2014 15:13:13 GMT
Seems like a lot of the money at 5.9% in the 5 year market has now been lent out.
Expect to see 6.0% before end of week/month.
Am wondering if it is a month end thing or people borrowing for Xmas???
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Post by wildlife2 on Nov 25, 2014 15:43:36 GMT
I have been holding money back this month, hoping that rates
could be higher next month and Jan.'15, as most people
tend to overspend at xmas time.
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