ilmoro
Member of DD Central
'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
Posts: 11,329 
Likes: 11,549
|
Post by ilmoro on Apr 4, 2021 17:45:26 GMT
It will be ironic if the withdrawal queue turns into investment queue, I hope not  I don't know what the plan is, but the most sensible solution I've seen was Zopa stopped allowing new deposits until they had room for new money. Well based on precedent that is exactly what will happen but as we are in something a transformative period nothing is certain. That said planned changes seem to have slipped somewhat based on the lack of expected comms and may even be on the backburner if Stuarts predictions are solid. Situation will no doubt become clearer next week as pre deadline ISA inflow and RS transfer requests become more visible & quantifiable.
|
|
|
|
Post by df on Apr 4, 2021 18:44:21 GMT
.. With no new loans coming, what are the chances of say £20k being deposited and invested today? From a AAs (QAA, 30DAA, 90DAA) depositor perspective the £20k money is effectively invested instantly: 90% across 100 plus loans and 10% in cash with it all earning interest instantly from the lenders perspective. From AC’s perspective the AAs loan portfolio doesn’t go up but cash does. For now there’s now danger of dilution as that £20k will be part of the cash distributed overnight to lenders in the cash withdrawal queue. As the CEO has hinted if a situation arises where too much cash starts coming in (i.e in excess of that looking to withdraw) then the AAs would need to be restricted to how much new money is allowed in. Currently I guesstimate about £15m is the magnitude of new money AC could absorb in the AAs. That could drop very rapidly if some chunky ISA money came in, redemptions continue apace next week after the Easter break or AAers stop playing liquidity roundabout (if for example they’re spooked that they might not be able to reinvest in AAs once in cash.) I'm in 406 loans in each, 30 and 90 day. I would've thought this should be the same for all AA's investors, but I might be wrong.
|
|
ilmoro
Member of DD Central
'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
Posts: 11,329
Likes: 11,549
|
Post by ilmoro on Apr 4, 2021 19:17:06 GMT
From a AAs (QAA, 30DAA, 90DAA) depositor perspective the £20k money is effectively invested instantly: 90% across 100 plus loans and 10% in cash with it all earning interest instantly from the lenders perspective. From AC’s perspective the AAs loan portfolio doesn’t go up but cash does. For now there’s now danger of dilution as that £20k will be part of the cash distributed overnight to lenders in the cash withdrawal queue. As the CEO has hinted if a situation arises where too much cash starts coming in (i.e in excess of that looking to withdraw) then the AAs would need to be restricted to how much new money is allowed in. Currently I guesstimate about £15m is the magnitude of new money AC could absorb in the AAs. That could drop very rapidly if some chunky ISA money came in, redemptions continue apace next week after the Easter break or AAers stop playing liquidity roundabout (if for example they’re spooked that they might not be able to reinvest in AAs once in cash.) I'm in 406 loans in each, 30 and 90 day. I would've thought this should be the same for all AA's investors, but I might be wrong. Yeah, 406 - AA doesnt hold 16 - 7 loans that were in default before the account launched, 6 where the PF has paid out capital and 3 recent ones that were MLA only.
|
|
|
|
Post by oppsididitagain on Apr 5, 2021 11:30:54 GMT
It will be ironic if the withdrawal queue turns into investment queue, I hope not I don't know what the plan is, but the most sensible solution I've seen was Zopa stopped allowing new deposits until they had room for new money. Will I be able to sell my AA for a premium ? :-) now that would be an interesting market
|
|
rscal
Posts: 985
Likes: 537
|
Post by rscal on Apr 9, 2021 8:33:32 GMT
'Queue Ended Day'? Is there a equal prediction that (non discounted) withdrawal requests will then become instant at that point?
|
|
dead-money
Rocket to the Moon
Posts: 746
Likes: 654
|
Post by dead-money on Apr 9, 2021 17:33:41 GMT
Yep, another classic Friday night let's hit the pub AC missive. 
Stuart and Co. could give HMRC and the Office for 'Tax Simplification' a run for their money 
The workings of the Access Accounts must now be the most complex coding ever; I do hope the beta testing ironed out all the kinks 
|
|
iRobot
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,680
Likes: 2,477
|
Post by iRobot on Apr 10, 2021 11:44:10 GMT
<snip>Having gone some way to set expectations, it's not entirely surprising that March looks unlikely to match or exceed Feb's level of repayment but early days, so fingers crossed. Well, expectations completely blown out of the water in March. Updated table to include Mar's figures, average daily payment received by month per £10k of holding: | Jun '20 | 3.60 | Sep '20 | 3.88 | Dec '20 | 6.61 | Mar '21 | 247.41 | | Jul '20 | 8.65 | Oct '20 | 5.38 | Jan '21 | 36.71 | Apr '21 | - | | Aug '20 | 8.61 | Nov '20 | 3.27 | Feb '21 | 72.18 | May '21 | - |
April has started strongly - understandably, given IFISAs - will be interesting to see how it continues. As an aside, with 84.1% of funds returned, I'm rapidly approaching a position where funds remaining in the queue will be exceeded by total interest earned.
|
|
ian
Posts: 342
Likes: 226
|
Post by ian on Apr 11, 2021 5:50:50 GMT
Yep, another classic Friday night let's hit the pub AC missive.
Stuart and Co. could give HMRC and the Office for 'Tax Simplification' a run for their money
The workings of the Access Accounts must now be the most complex coding ever; I do hope the beta testing ironed out all the kinks
I have requested a breakdown of discounts I have applied to offset against interest or CGT hitherto AC have failed to reply - has anyone made similar requests ?
|
|
ceejay
Posts: 975
Likes: 1,149
|
Post by ceejay on Apr 12, 2021 9:55:40 GMT
Apologies if this has already been covered and I've missed it - but can anyone explain to me the significance of the pairs of AA repayments, about six minutes apart every morning?
There's a small one first and a larger one second - and the ratio between the two seems to be on a steady trend (the smaller one getting progressively smaller each day).
If it had been the big one first then I might have speculated that the second one was auto-reinvest from the first one, but it's the wrong way round.
Is it somehow the case that when the first one disappears to zero then the queue has been emptied?
Perhaps someone with greater insight into the machinations here could enlighten us...
|
|
rscal
Posts: 985
Likes: 537
|
Post by rscal on Apr 12, 2021 10:03:57 GMT
Yep, another classic Friday night let's hit the pub AC missive.
Stuart and Co. could give HMRC and the Office for 'Tax Simplification' a run for their money
The workings of the Access Accounts must now be the most complex coding ever; I do hope the beta testing ironed out all the kinks
I have requested a breakdown of discounts I have applied to offset against interest or CGT hitherto AC have failed to reply - has anyone made similar requests ? For net discount across all account types, you'd need to know
Balance on 6 April 2020 Balance on 5 April 2021
Take interest from the difference [also given from statements]
The difference will be the effect of your net discounts. Of course, you need to adjust for any deposits or withdrawals made during the previous tax year and the system can't do that for you. But it would be practical to ask for a record of all deposits and withdrawals from AC [rather than expecting them to keep book on zillions of buying and selling in an automated market]
|
|
michaelc
Member of DD Central
Say No To T.D.S.
Posts: 5,706
Likes: 2,981
|
Post by michaelc on Apr 12, 2021 14:20:43 GMT
Queue gobbling whopper of an under the radar payment on loan #691. No update published but £2m repaid and already processed. Circa 87% of the loan is in AAs. Sweet Dreams Queue Watchers there should be a 30% payment at 1.09am tonight! Wow! Isn't it just fantastic? I should pile some more cash in. Not.
|
|
ilmoro
Member of DD Central
'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
Posts: 11,329
Likes: 11,549
|
Post by ilmoro on Apr 12, 2021 14:34:03 GMT
Apologies if this has already been covered and I've missed it - but can anyone explain to me the significance of the pairs of AA repayments, about six minutes apart every morning? There's a small one first and a larger one second - and the ratio between the two seems to be on a steady trend (the smaller one getting progressively smaller each day). If it had been the big one first then I might have speculated that the second one was auto-reinvest from the first one, but it's the wrong way round. Is it somehow the case that when the first one disappears to zero then the queue has been emptied? Perhaps someone with greater insight into the machinations here could enlighten us... One is the funds from loan redemptions, the other smaller one is the funds released by new investment at par. Par investments are released prorata like the redemptions whereas discount buys are FIFO for the sellers in the queue
|
|
michaelc
Member of DD Central
Say No To T.D.S.
Posts: 5,706
Likes: 2,981
|
Post by michaelc on Apr 12, 2021 14:43:04 GMT
Wow! Isn't it just fantastic? I should pile some more cash in. Not. Well I thought it was positive news and I don’t even have anything more than experimental money in the AAs. But since reading your instant comment michaelc I’m prepared to upgrade my view to fantastic! Why? Because for me michaelc you are the best thing about the p2pindependent forum since the annual poll of best P2P platforms stopped. Likewise and I extend my warm regards to you and all of your colleagues.
|
|
ashtondav
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,814
Likes: 1,092
|
Post by ashtondav on Apr 12, 2021 15:24:17 GMT
Sometimes I wake up grumpy... ...and sometimes I let him sleep.  |
|
rscal
Posts: 985
Likes: 537
|
Post by rscal on Apr 12, 2021 19:07:55 GMT
Queue gobbling whopper of an under-the-radar payment on loan #691. No update published yet, but £2m repaid and already processed. Circa 87% of the loan is in AAs. Sweet Dreams Queue Watchers there should be a circa 20% payment at 1.09am tonight!
| Due Date | Type | Amount | Payment Made | | 09/04/2021 | Lender Principal | £2,000,000.00 | "£2,000,000.00
(12/04/2021)" |
Update now published on #691. As suspected it’s an introduction of capital by the borrower as there wouldn’t have been any sales yet. [PS The queue reduction was incorrectly stated as 30% in my unedited post. It should have read 20%. With other small repayments plus new money the total payment tonight (assuming no additional significant queue joiners or leaver) will probably be about 23% to 2 sig fig.] I have about 3,500 in the queue, so your prediction for tonight is about 800? (Worth seeing whether it happens!)
|
|
I don't know what the plan is, but the most sensible solution I've seen was Zopa stopped allowing new deposits until they had room for new money. 
