tjtl
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Post by tjtl on Apr 8, 2020 6:30:25 GMT
I still have faith that the vast majority of businesses here wiill be ok. Many will be the recipients of rates holidays, grants etc I very much hope you're right. However, I was just reading earlier today that “one-third of SME housebuilders ceased operating between 2007-2009” (Cogress' Cornerstone magazine, edition 2, spring 2019, page 21). For an enormous one-third of SME housebuilders to have closed down and I imagine many of them had gone into administration or bankruptcy in the last recession is extremely concerning as we’re now into another, but deeper, recession and doesn't bode well for those of us who loaned our money into property projects. We must expect some losses to capital. My pension pot, professionally managed, is down by over 20%, the value of my equity holdings (in-expertly managed by me) is down by over 20%, and goodness knows what % in value my house has fallen by. Why should our investments in AC (and that is what they are, they are investments, not bank loans- we are carrying equity risk linked to the health of the companies the money goes to) be any different? We can all have different ways of dealing with this, my approach increasingly is to let this crisis play out and then asses the damage doing what little we can do (such as exiting where possible) in the meantime. This is not the same as previous recessions, it is global and governments are fast to react- but it strikes me as optimistic that we can get out of this unscathed.
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Mikeme
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Post by Mikeme on Apr 8, 2020 8:07:43 GMT
I very much hope you're right. However, I was just reading earlier today that “one-third of SME housebuilders ceased operating between 2007-2009” (Cogress' Cornerstone magazine, edition 2, spring 2019, page 21). For an enormous one-third of SME housebuilders to have closed down and I imagine many of them had gone into administration or bankruptcy in the last recession is extremely concerning as we’re now into another, but deeper, recession and doesn't bode well for those of us who loaned our money into property projects. We must expect some losses to capital. My pension pot, professionally managed, is down by over 20%, the value of my equity holdings (in-expertly managed by me) is down by over 20%, and goodness knows what % in value my house has fallen by. Why should our investments in AC (and that is what they are, they are investments, not bank loans- we are carrying equity risk linked to the health of the companies the money goes to) be any different? We can all have different ways of dealing with this, my approach increasingly is to let this crisis play out and then asses the damage doing what little we can do (such as exiting where possible) in the meantime. This is not the same as previous recessions, it is global and governments are fast to react- but it strikes me as optimistic that we can get out of this unscathed. Thank you I agree . We should expect losses. For our losses to be minimised we need AC to work on our behalf to support our borrowers because that is in the best interests of our capital. This is different than 2007 in that this time much has been and will be put into helping the business's rather than the banks. The support being given to business I think will mean that when this passes they will be able to start business again. In all sectors. The balanced approach IMO is to allowing AC to do their job will give the best result for all of us overall. The more of our borrowers that come out of this the better the outcome for everyone. 2007
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alanh
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Post by alanh on Apr 8, 2020 9:34:34 GMT
Some people on here will have lost large sums of money that they can't afford to lose. Retired people who now have to sell their house to make ends meet. Others with years of savings wiped out. Money problems cause mental health issues and in the worse cases people take their own lives because they can no longer cope. With 38000 investors there will be a broad spectrum of all sorts of people. If you want to just sit and laugh at the destruction of other peoples lives its up to you, but you have just revealed exactly the type of person you are People with large sums of money should use the services of a financial adviser. Retired pensioners and those with years of savings should not be investing in a maturity mismatch (based on micro property developers of all things). Those that game promotions and assume they can successfully block the queue by being at the front of it should be the least complaining of all. Instead of waiting nearly a month - and growing, March 16th awaits- on RS, all those that need access to their funds are receiving it on an ongoing basis the same as everybody else. Do you think you would be entitled to take your hundreds of thousands out during a bank run or do you think withdrawals would be imited to ensure all the needy were served in a global pandemic? Those with far less savings would suffer the same mental health problems if the rich were blocking access to their funds during a national emergency. I agree with what you are saying here. Having your savings wiped out, suffering mental health problems and having great financial worries can affect anyone whether they are classed as "rich" or "poor" for want of better words. I would hope that anyone in such a situation is able to find a way out of it and return to some kind of normality. If you read my original post it was actually directed at a certain individual on here who gets some kind of amusement from those in situations like this. I find it rather offensive to find that there are people such as this willing to revel in others misery, there is no place for it and there is no excuse for it.
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ceejay
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Post by ceejay on Apr 8, 2020 10:08:10 GMT
I had £1600 in the queue, just to part fund bills over the next few months. I had amounts in the 30/90 day accounts outside my ISA which i gave notice on 30/90 days back. So those have now joined and increased the queue ( by a multilple in my case) making it slower for everyone. And i was only trying to do my normal April thing of using a anothers years ISA allowance. I still have faith that the vast majority of businesses here wiill be ok. Many will be the recipients of rates holidays, grants etc Something I'm not clear about: if I make withdrawal requests from QAA, 30DAA and 90DAA (having served the notice periods) does that give me one share of the pooled payout or three? If its only one then you can add as many withdrawal requests as you like, after the first one it's going to make no difference to you or anyone else. Having said that, the current situation can't last for long - at the moment the illusion is being maintained that our loans are worth 100% of par value, when a glance at the MLA will tell you that they are not. When AC do manage to implement the promised crystallisation option, there will be some interesting questions to be asked about which is the best option to take.
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alender
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Post by alender on Apr 8, 2020 10:08:59 GMT
If you read my original post it was actually directed at a certain individual on here who gets some kind of amusement from those in situations like this. I find it rather offensive to find that there are people such as this willing to revel in others misery, there is no place for it and there is no excuse for it. It is known as Schadenfreude.
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iRobot
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Post by iRobot on Apr 8, 2020 10:50:55 GMT
Some people on here will have lost large sums of money that they can't afford to lose. Retired people who now have to sell their house to make ends meet. Others with years of savings wiped out. Money problems cause mental health issues and in the worse cases people take their own lives because they can no longer cope. With 38000 investors there will be a broad spectrum of all sorts of people. If you want to just sit and laugh at the destruction of other peoples lives its up to you, but you have just revealed exactly the type of person you are Alarmist language and rhetoric has no place in sensible debate. " Some people on here will have lost large sums of money that they can't afford to lose." - 'will have lost'? Anyone actually lost any money yet, from the Access Accounts? - 'large sums'? Large is a relative number. What is large to one person is pocket change to others. - 'they can't afford to lose'. That's true - few people can afford to lose money - but there was always the risk they could lose money, and yet they invested anyway. Their choice. If it comes to realising losses, it's their decision to bear the consequences of. " Retired people who now have to sell their house to make ends meet." - Maybe over-egging the pudding somewhat? Unless there is incontrovertible proof that has happened, of course. " Money problems cause mental health issues and in the worse cases people take their own lives because they can no longer cope." - No arguing with that, but with broad-brush, speculative doom-mongering using phrases like 'large losses' and alluding to forced house sales, I'd suggest you are feeding those mental anxieties, fuelling fears and adding to the problem. Beware of unintended consequences. " With 38000 investors there will be a broad spectrum of all sorts of people." - Don't disagree with that either. There will be those that have - Unwisely invested in AC (and P2P generally) without understanding the risks, using money that can ill-afford to lose, or even just lose access to
- Unwisely invested too much in AC / P2P instead of limiting their exposure to the risks
- Unwisely invested others' money in AC / P2P
- Mistaken a risky investment vehicle for an instant access savings account.
History will tell the final story on breadth and depth of losses for those in the Access Accounts and there'll be lessons to learn. AC will (hopefully) come out on the other side of this better equipped to cope when something similar happens in the future. Maybe even the regulators will learn something from it, too. (Although I wouldn't hold my breath!) Importantly, investors - current and future - need to learn the lessons, too. One of those lessons is to look inward and admit one's own mistakes: 'yes, I failed to understand the risks' - 'yes, I understood but ignored the risks' - 'yes, I over committed' , etc , etc.
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alanh
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Post by alanh on Apr 8, 2020 11:12:50 GMT
Some people on here will have lost large sums of money that they can't afford to lose. Retired people who now have to sell their house to make ends meet. Others with years of savings wiped out. Money problems cause mental health issues and in the worse cases people take their own lives because they can no longer cope. With 38000 investors there will be a broad spectrum of all sorts of people. If you want to just sit and laugh at the destruction of other peoples lives its up to you, but you have just revealed exactly the type of person you are Alarmist language and rhetoric has no place in sensible debate. " Some people on here will have lost large sums of money that they can't afford to lose." - 'will have lost'? Anyone actually lost any money yet, from the Access Accounts? - 'large sums'? Large is a relative number. What is large to one person is pocket change to others. - 'they can't afford to lose'. That's true - few people can afford to lose money - but there was always the risk they could lose money, and yet they invested anyway. Their choice. If it comes to realising losses, it's their decision to bear the consequences of. " Retired people who now have to sell their house to make ends meet." - Maybe over-egging the pudding somewhat? Unless there is incontrovertible proof that has happened, of course. " Money problems cause mental health issues and in the worse cases people take their own lives because they can no longer cope." - No arguing with that, but with broad-brush, speculative doom-mongering using phrases like 'large losses' and alluding to forced house sales, I'd suggest you are feeding those mental anxieties, fuelling fears and adding to the problem. Beware of unintended consequences. " With 38000 investors there will be a broad spectrum of all sorts of people." - Don't disagree with that either. There will be those that have - Unwisely invested in AC (and P2P generally) without understanding the risks, using money that can ill-afford to lose, or even just lose access to
- Unwisely invested too much in AC / P2P instead of limiting their exposure to the risks
- Unwisely invested others' money in AC / P2P
- Mistaken a risky investment vehicle for an instant access savings account.
History will tell the final story on breadth and depth of losses for those in the Access Accounts and there'll be lessons to learn. AC will (hopefully) come out on the other side of this better equipped to cope when something similar happens in the future. Maybe even the regulators will learn something from it, too. (Although I wouldn't hold my breath!) Importantly, investors - current and future - need to learn the lessons, too. One of those lessons is to look inward and admit one's own mistakes: 'yes, I failed to understand the risks' - 'yes, I understood but ignored the risks' - 'yes, I over committed' , etc , etc. You have obviously totally missed the point of my original post which was directed at the person on here who finds it funny to laugh at others financial difficulties. I was merely pointing up that in a population of 38000 investors there will be some who are struggling very badly as a result of all this and that maybe he should think twice before posting and keep his thoughts to himself. The examples I gave were to hopefully make him realise the consequences of his own actions, and as I said, with 38000 investors there are going to be some extremely concerned people out there. Anyway, it seems to have worked as he has subsequently shut up.
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iRobot
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Post by iRobot on Apr 8, 2020 11:24:03 GMT
Alarmist language and rhetoric has no place in sensible debate. .... You have obviously totally missed the point of my original post which was directed at the person on here who finds it funny to laugh at others financial difficulties. I was merely pointing up that in a population of 38000 investors there will be some who are struggling very badly as a result of all this and that maybe he should think twice before posting and keep his thoughts to himself. The examples I gave were to hopefully make him realise the consequences of his own actions, and as I said, with 38000 investors there are going to be some extremely concerned people out there. Anyway, it seems to have worked as he has subsequently shut up. And you have 'obviously totally' missed the point that you could have done that without using alarmist language, presenting suppositions as facts and further distressing those 'extremely concerned people out there'. Advocating that another poster should keep their thoughts to themselves is rarely a good idea. Advocating posters think twice before posting is definitely a great idea.
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alanh
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Post by alanh on Apr 8, 2020 12:06:59 GMT
You have obviously totally missed the point of my original post which was directed at the person on here who finds it funny to laugh at others financial difficulties. I was merely pointing up that in a population of 38000 investors there will be some who are struggling very badly as a result of all this and that maybe he should think twice before posting and keep his thoughts to himself. The examples I gave were to hopefully make him realise the consequences of his own actions, and as I said, with 38000 investors there are going to be some extremely concerned people out there. Anyway, it seems to have worked as he has subsequently shut up. And you have 'obviously totally' missed the point that you could have done that without using alarmist language, presenting suppositions as facts and further distressing those 'extremely concerned people out there'. Advocating that another poster should keep their thoughts to themselves is rarely a good idea. Advocating posters think twice before posting is definitely a great idea. Theres not really anything alarmist about it at all if you actually consider how many investors there are in this platform. I think you need to actually consider what is going on here. The reason that "nobody has lost any money yet in the access accounts" is because everyone is locked in and currently the only price that you can trade at is par. Hence there is a huge queue of investors looking to exit and no sign of any buyers whatsoever willing to pay par to get in. The loans in the MLA that underlie the access accounts are trading at discounts of up to 20%+ and so there is little reason to expect anybody to pay par for a basket of loans that clearly worth a lot less. You can't buy shares just before a stock market crash and just expect them to be worth the same afterwards even if you haven't "lost any money" until you sell them. I don't know if you think you are going to come out of this unscathed, it would be nice if we all did. But I think the reality is going to be something very, very different.
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withnell
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Post by withnell on Apr 8, 2020 12:15:05 GMT
The loans in the MLA that underlie the access accounts are trading at discounts of up to 20%+ and so there is little reason to expect anybody to pay par for a basket of loans that clearly worth a lot less. Minimal admin - the time to buy a diversified portfolio is unlikely to be worth it except for a large sum of money + provision fund exists
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Mikeme
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Post by Mikeme on Apr 8, 2020 12:15:16 GMT
Advocating posters think twice before posting is definitely a great idea. I took that advice! I have empathy and sympathy to both borrowers and lenders but also with AC who are trying to square the impossible circle. I will always pity those that think having a lot of money puts them at the front of the queue. I had the great privilege to urgently visit my local hospital last night and was treated kindly and professionally. . My relative wealth made no difference to the treatment. That is my proportional that I believe in.
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iRobot
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Post by iRobot on Apr 8, 2020 13:47:13 GMT
Theres not really anything alarmist about it at all if you actually consider how many investors there are in this platform. I think you need to actually consider what is going on here. The reason that "nobody has lost any money yet in the access accounts" is because everyone is locked in and currently the only price that you can trade at is par. Hence there is a huge queue of investors looking to exit and no sign of any buyers whatsoever willing to pay par to get in. The loans in the MLA that underlie the access accounts are trading at discounts of up to 20%+ and so there is little reason to expect anybody to pay par for a basket of loans that clearly worth a lot less. You can't buy shares just before a stock market crash and just expect them to be worth the same afterwards even if you haven't "lost any money" until you sell them. I don't know if you think you are going to come out of this unscathed, it would be nice if we all did. But I think the reality is going to be something very, very different Well, I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree on what can be considered alarmist. My 'line in the sand' is postulating " huge losses" and stating " Retired people who now have to sell their house to make ends meet" as facts, when it isn't the case. It's an opinion - maybe even an arguable one - but presenting it as anything other than opinion can be alarming. (In my opinion ) As I said earlier: beware of unintended consequences. As for being unscathed, I have no idea. Clearly you're pessimistic. Losses will be crystallised on holdings sold at a discount on an Access Account SM, if one materialises. (Personally, I have doubts it's doable / permissible.) It would indeed likely need to be a large discount - I don't doubt 50% for those who are keenest to exit. And that brings us back to those having to exit. Within a reasonably large cohort of investors * there will be some who find themselves having to exit. It's unfortunate, but it will happen. I genuinely hope no one has to sell their house over a failed P2P investment. If that does come to pass, hopefully they'll survive to learn the lessons, and future investors can learn from others' mistakes. [* - 38,000 has been mentioned previously; do we know that's an accurate figure? The three 'about' pages quote investor numbers which add up to less than 33,000 and I suspect there'll be number of individuals who have funds in two or more Access Accounts simultaneously, possibly quite a significant number.]
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alanh
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Post by alanh on Apr 8, 2020 14:03:47 GMT
Theres not really anything alarmist about it at all if you actually consider how many investors there are in this platform. I think you need to actually consider what is going on here. The reason that "nobody has lost any money yet in the access accounts" is because everyone is locked in and currently the only price that you can trade at is par. Hence there is a huge queue of investors looking to exit and no sign of any buyers whatsoever willing to pay par to get in. The loans in the MLA that underlie the access accounts are trading at discounts of up to 20%+ and so there is little reason to expect anybody to pay par for a basket of loans that clearly worth a lot less. You can't buy shares just before a stock market crash and just expect them to be worth the same afterwards even if you haven't "lost any money" until you sell them. I don't know if you think you are going to come out of this unscathed, it would be nice if we all did. But I think the reality is going to be something very, very different Well, I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree on what can be considered alarmist. My 'line in the sand' is postulating " huge losses" and stating " Retired people who now have to sell their house to make ends meet" as facts, when it isn't the case. It's an opinion - maybe even an arguable one - but presenting it as anything other than opinion can be alarming. (In my opinion ) As I said earlier: beware of unintended consequences. As for being unscathed, I have no idea. Clearly you're pessimistic. Losses will be crystallised on holdings sold at a discount on an Access Account SM, if one materialises. (Personally, I have doubts it's doable / permissible.) It would indeed likely need to be a large discount - I don't doubt 50% for those who are keenest to exit. And that brings us back to those having to exit. Within a reasonably large cohort of investors * there will be some who find themselves having to exit. It's unfortunate, but it will happen. I genuinely hope no one has to sell their house over a failed P2P investment. If that does come to pass, hopefully they'll survive to learn the lessons, and future investors can learn from others' mistakes. [* - 38,000 has been mentioned previously; do we know that's an accurate figure? The three 'about' pages quote investor numbers which add up to less than 33,000 and I suspect there'll be number of individuals who have funds in two or more Access Accounts simultaneously, possibly quite a significant number.] The 38,000 is on the website..."38,762 investors on our platform" - how many are active etc etc is another debate. I personally am pessimistic. I think the level of optimism or pessimism is a function of the size of your investment. The smaller investors can sit tight, watch things chug along and probably get paid out. The larger investors are stuck and continually buying more and more of the exiting investors loans (and therefore taking on default risk) - this is a bad situation to be in to say the least. The only hope of getting out is for things to "normalise" but I can see absolutely zero chance of that happening given the treatment of large investors. The trust has gone, the inflows will be minimal, normalisation will not happen. Also, given the external environment I would envision the access account provision funds, already at low levels, to drop to zero causing further complications. Personally, I think they are toast. I think the expected recovery in administration is 50% - who knows, but I have written off 50% of my investment on my records. I would hope that I am able to suffer smaller losses via exit using the routes that AC are looking to introduce. So its not really a question of having to exit, its a question of exiting with the smallest amount of losses. Thats my view anyway. Some will agree, some won't but it is certainly a possible outcome.
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Mikeme
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Post by Mikeme on Apr 8, 2020 14:33:05 GMT
We as a family are very 3 large investors and I am over-invested here ( my decision and responsibility no one elses). We as a family agree with the decisions that AC have made in particular to the small investors. We have no idea what our our losses will be but what will be is what will be.
I believe that what is in the interests of all 3 components of our circle here is to keep AC running as a platform because that for sure will for now at least keep losses to a minimum. To support honest borrowers because in the long run that will keep the highest value on the assets. If possible to support the smaller borrowers because they need the money.
I understand that I invested into loans and interest was to be paid but capital only repaid at the end of the loan period. As someone else said AC made an delusional liquid market that circumstances have changed that. Liquidity was not guaranteed.
Yes I say again I support AC. Yes I want to support borrowers for some period of time if needed because quite simply my belief is that that will give the best results for all.
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alender
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Post by alender on Apr 8, 2020 15:10:58 GMT
Well, I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree on what can be considered alarmist. My 'line in the sand' is postulating " huge losses" and stating " Retired people who now have to sell their house to make ends meet" as facts, when it isn't the case. It's an opinion - maybe even an arguable one - but presenting it as anything other than opinion can be alarming. (In my opinion ) As I said earlier: beware of unintended consequences. It would not surprise me that some older investors will be forced to sell off their home in the future as the result of AC actions. I know as I in this age group and I am not so sure it might not be me at some point.
I have mentioned my situation here before and it is made worse by AC contempt for larger investors.
Recently my finances have taken a huge hit mostly to a particular situation outside the usual corona virus hit. I finished work a few years ago because all my work was being outsourced to India but I am still a few years from state pension. There is very little chance of me now finding any work even quite low paid work, no problem as I have some great assets and a private pension I will take later. Because of the government policy of low interest rates I could either watch my retirement nest egg disappear with tax and inflation or put it elsewhere, I bought what are regarded as quality shares, Insurance Companies, Banks, Oil etc. and a reasonable large amount in P2P to balance the equities.
When I check my private pension pot it is very uncomfortable experience, the governments believes I am so well off that I do no need my dividends from Banks and Insurance companies as they should use the money elsewhere so have blocked these (this will also hit my pension) even though these companies dividends are well funded, Oils are badly hit and other companies have reduced or stopped the the dividends. OK there is P2P, that will also be hit, however I was not expecting to be so badly treated because disproportionate treatment of lenders.
Will I have to sell my house, at this point I don't know but I do know that the chances have increased because of the way AC have acted.
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