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Post by BrianC on Mar 28, 2020 2:17:01 GMT
In scenario 4 half is not at all pessimistic. But I said I see 4 as very unlikely. I think 1 is likely but 2 is very possible. 2 isn’t that bad at all.
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Post by ehds on Mar 28, 2020 2:17:47 GMT
I’m invested in Aus Ratesetter and I was told (assuming they are being honest) that borrower contributions to the PF have increased to start addressing potentially higher default rates, perhaps RS uk is doing the same, obviously this doesn’t mitigate against default rates increasing suddenly and with speed above the coverage ratio, but it’s proactive credit risk management in extreme market market conditions, which perhaps slows or stops the move from scenario 1 to scenario 4.
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Post by Ace on Mar 28, 2020 10:13:25 GMT
Was wondering how much I could lose due to Corona. Half ? A third? No idea at all Wow, pessimistic much! 4 possible outcomes as I see it.... 1. You lose absolutely nothing. RS get through this and become stronger from it. RYI’s continue albeit slow. Repayments continue as normal. 2. Defaults rise meaning the provision fund runs low or empty. Returns are reduced so everyone receives a lower rate of interest. No capital is lost. RYI isn’t available for a while but repayments still come in. 3. Defaults rise significantly meaning the provision fund empties. Returns are reduced meaning no interest is received and a small loss on capital but 90%+ of capital protected. RYI isn’t available for a long time but repayments still come in. 4. RS go out of business. Their loan book is run down by the administrators. Investors receive returns slowly and much depleted. Just 4 possibilities I can think of, From 1, very likely, to 4, very unlikely. All IMHO. Certainly more hopeful about this than you though. I think you have the 4 possibilities about right, but IMO the likelihoods are quite different. RS we're rapidly approaching 2 well before the virus struck. I.e. the PF was consistently reducing each month despite RS's attempts to massage the figures to make them look better. I see it as: 1 very very very unlikely. 2 almost certain to go through this stage. 3 very likely. 4 I'm unsure how to judge this one.
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Post by scepticalinvestor on Mar 28, 2020 12:17:14 GMT
Has RS resumed lending yet?
The website still says "We are temporarily not accepting new loan applications due to high levels of demand."
Are there any other channels?
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alanh
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Post by alanh on Mar 28, 2020 12:32:33 GMT
Has RS resumed lending yet? The website still says "We are temporarily not accepting new loan applications due to high levels of demand." Are there any other channels? They are still lending but at reduced levels as they are prioritising existing investors RYI requests. Presumably they have got a backlog of loan applications to process while this is going on so are not accepting any new ones at the moment. The latest email sent out last night says that the peak RYI request day was March 16th and the requests fell off substantially after that. They have returned just under £5m per week for the past 2 weeks to RYI requests so once they have got past the peak on the 16th I would think they will be able to start accepting new loan applications.
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wuzimu
Member of DD Central
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Post by wuzimu on Mar 28, 2020 18:20:41 GMT
Wow, pessimistic much! 4 possible outcomes as I see it.... 1. You lose absolutely nothing. RS get through this and become stronger from it. RYI’s continue albeit slow. Repayments continue as normal. 2. Defaults rise meaning the provision fund runs low or empty. Returns are reduced so everyone receives a lower rate of interest. No capital is lost. RYI isn’t available for a while but repayments still come in. 3. Defaults rise significantly meaning the provision fund empties. Returns are reduced meaning no interest is received and a small loss on capital but 90%+ of capital protected. RYI isn’t available for a long time but repayments still come in. 4. RS go out of business. Their loan book is run down by the administrators. Investors receive returns slowly and much depleted. Just 4 possibilities I can think of, From 1, very likely, to 4, very unlikely. All IMHO. Certainly more hopeful about this than you though. I think you have the 4 possibilities about right, but IMO the likelihoods are quite different. RS we're rapidly approaching 2 well before the virus struck. I.e. the PF was consistently reducing each month despite RS's attempts to massage the figures to make them look better. I see it as: 1 very very very unlikely. 2 almost certain to go through this stage. 3 very likely. 4 I'm unsure how to judge this one.
W/ref the 4 outcomes, .. my 2p worth is that IF RS were insolvent, then yeah 50% capital loss may happen, or even more!
BUT all the recently failed P2P platforms I know of failed because of the accumulated unlawful conduct of the platform created liabilities to lenders that could no longer be hidden and /or the FCA lost faith in the ability of the management to treat customers fairly and would have closed the firm down by coourt application if the owners had not called in administrators.
I don't feel RS is in that category. If they have to stop making new loans in favour of repayimg RYI requests, surely they can do that and make a margin from the repaying loans sufficient to stay in business until the RYI is complete. I can see capital loss situation but not at the level as if an insolvency procedure were in place. I would have thought a Moneything situation is good comparison, but hopefully the underlying loan book at RS is of higher quality than MT.
The other thing to bear in mind is that RS has substantial private equity backers rather than sharks like the owners of LY / FS / COL.
RS has never become very profitable (or at all?) BUT RS has cornered the market in quick loans to better quality borrowers and has achieved scale, it COULD become very profitable in the future. If I was an RS backer I would not want to throw in the towel too easily. Corona will pass, and probably fairly soon and RS could emerge stronger if it survives this test.
So I don't think RS is a LY or FS or COL teetering on the abyss for the same reasons. Insolvency is a risk for any business but I hope the quality of RS management / backers and loan book will see it through. (fingers x'd)
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gg
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Post by gg on Mar 28, 2020 22:13:42 GMT
It’s a bit like panic buying imo.
It’s caused by people trying to gain some control of a situation that they have little, if any, control over.
Whether it’s buying loo rolls or getting cash out of RS, it’s panic buying. In RS’s case you pay to RYI, hopefully you get your cash into a safe haven. If RS collapses (and it might) you have paid up to 1.5% in an attempt to save more significant losses.
It could all blow over. Things may improve in 3, 6, 9 or 12 months. Who knows? If this pandemic isn’t brought under control within 12 months then having cash in a safe haven may be little comfort. How much is an online funeral after all?
Money matters are always important. Right now, staying safe, staying home is far more important.
GLA
gg
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Post by cinereus on Mar 29, 2020 2:51:48 GMT
Good evening everyone. The latest update is below - we have delivered £0.7m today. Please can you clarify why we currently cannot release investments? After receiving the quotation, the next page throws the following error: Sorry! There was a problem with the page that you asked for. Note that we have recently updated our site and some pages have been moved. Still waiting for an answer why the site is currently broken...
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scc
Member of DD Central
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Post by scc on Mar 29, 2020 5:02:52 GMT
It’s a bit like panic buying imo. It’s caused by people trying to gain some control of a situation that they have little, if any, control over. Whether it’s buying loo rolls or getting cash out of RS, it’s panic buying. In RS’s case you pay to RYI, hopefully you get your cash into a safe haven. If RS collapses (and it might) you have paid up to 1.5% in an attempt to save more significant losses. It could all blow over. Things may improve in 3, 6, 9 or 12 months. Who knows? If this pandemic isn’t brought under control within 12 months then having cash in a safe haven may be little comfort. How much is an online funeral after all?Money matters are always important. Right now, staying safe, staying home is far more important. GLA gg And for balance, the chance of you needing to pay for a funeral (never mind your own) are tiny. The death rate will turn out to be well under 1% of those infected. I'll take those odds and assume I'll be around to spend/save/invest my money.
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Post by scepticalinvestor on Mar 29, 2020 7:04:42 GMT
My entire balance is already in the RYI queue so I can't test this. Is this the case for everyone? I would be grateful if someone could check and report back. Thanks. Please can you clarify why we currently cannot release investments? After receiving the quotation, the next page throws the following error: Sorry! There was a problem with the page that you asked for. Note that we have recently updated our site and some pages have been moved. Still waiting for an answer why the site is currently broken...
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Post by ruralres66 on Mar 29, 2020 9:59:21 GMT
I will test it now!
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aju
Member of DD Central
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Post by aju on Mar 29, 2020 10:03:48 GMT
My entire balance is already in the RYI queue so I can't test this. Is this the case for everyone? I would be grateful if someone could check and report back. Thanks. Still waiting for an answer why the site is currently broken... Sorry, I tried it for the 5 year but I got no messages as far as the quote but unless I want to release money I cannot test the final button. Perhaps someone who is in the market to remove funds will be along soon.
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Post by ruralres66 on Mar 29, 2020 10:11:11 GMT
Just tested RYI in my Everyday account.
1 year and 5 year.
Initially an error message is received.
Then a dialogue box pops up and says 'please wait' in a circle symbol.
Then after quite a pause, so be patient- the quote appears and allows you to proceed.
I took £500 RYI from my 1 year.
This is in addition to a very large sum I RYI on the 16th March.
The quote references this as " a pending amount"
Hope this helps and reassures.
I await my initial RYI instruction to be completed..... my husband's anxiety is going through the roof.........
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Post by blueboy on Mar 29, 2020 10:13:44 GMT
Was wondering how much I could lose due to Corona. Half ? A third? No idea at all Maybe half, maybe a third, maybe all or maybe none. The point is, nobody knows. I tried to release my funds on 16th March to top up my etf. But it’s just a case of waiting to see what happens, not just with this but with the whole Coronavirus thing and the effect it will have on the economy and on all of us worldwide.
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aju
Member of DD Central
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Post by aju on Mar 29, 2020 10:32:32 GMT
Just tested RYI in my Everyday account.
1 year and 5 year.
Initially an error message is received.
Then a dialogue box pops up and says 'please wait' in a circle symbol.
Then after quite a pause, so be patient- the quote appears and allows you to proceed.
I took £500 RYI from my 1 year.
This is in addition to a very large sum I RYI on the 16th March.
The quote references this as " a pending amount"
Hope this helps and reassures.
I await my initial RYI instrucytion to be completed..... my husband's anxiety is going through the roof......... We are not exiting out of RS at present just Zopa as we are probably a bit over extended there but I wonder if perhaps your hubby and my wife should get together. I put our Zopa funds on release mid march and not even a sniff yet either and if she asks me one more day I think I might have to start taking the govt approach and use the phrase " As I answered previously ...". Its nail biting days ahead I think ... To be fair these are interesting times all round and in the words of an old pop song from the Blair era "things can only get better" mind you it might not happen soon.
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