robski
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Post by robski on Jul 31, 2020 17:42:07 GMT
£160k (exactly) appeared in the 5 year lender queue at 4.3% Likely that will boost the RYI by that amount for 5 year today. Low rate APM has been cleaned out, I missed if there was a large borrower order. But weekly volume jumped by approx £300k so i believe thats what it was since 5 year is unchanged (bar the addition of the £160k exactly) robski Did you happen to keep a snapshot of the lender queue with the £160k addition? I dont doubt it and only looked at 10:40 and 12:00 so could easily have missed (I was only await my RYI going through at 12:20). But it would be interesting to see lender order counts around 10:50. I have for upto 4.3% 10:40 £174.6k 2805 12:00 £141.4k 2178 12:15 £101.5k 1412 12:22 £78.3k 1090 If the 160k was a single investor order just after 10:40 - then by 12:00/12:15/12:22 all of the 2805 original orders would have been consumed - the order count would have been 1 - with the 160k being at the back of the 4.3% queue. (Queue order counts are not always accurate - but did seem to update realistically today). If the 160k was a larger number of orders then the lender queue counts could make sense - but then what is the source of those funds all at the same time. Even if was some odd late settled loan repayment then we'd see more lender offers not at market rate - those did not change significantly. There are probably various innocent explanations - it could even be the 160k was added and cancelled. Or other mistake. So, not wanting to stir, but since you observed around 10:50 that A/P/M activity had just completed and that 5Y RYIs just commenced - it would be possible that the £160k was RS topping up 5Y lender queue from A/P/M excess lender queue (ie they were not matched just relocated temporarily just before the RYI run) and whilst we see 5Y Lender offers fulfilling 5Y RYI we dont realise some are proxy for A/P/M lenders. We dont know that £160k of newly created A/P/M contracts are against Borrower loans that were 5Y market previously nor whether those are now formed at A/P/M rates. Coincidentally if original RYI would have been £240k the £160k brings neatly up to £400k as yesterday. I stress I think this very unlikely and I'd be surprised were this the case, but interested since we have been scrutinising the market figures. (separately re your Market Volume calcs - note today 1Y saw at least £130k matched - I did not see if borrower offers or maybe RYI) Sorry no I didnt and I assumed it was still there at the start of the processing. But it seems since then RS have posted £0,3M so its definately quite possible it was something amiss. It was exactly £160k the queue moved from an odd amount at 4.3% to that amount plus £160k. I first noticed the matching and by that point it was down to just over £100k at 4.3% so maybe £60k moved out, but a decent chunk of the £160k was there I am quite bemused by what RS have posted, but I am not sure I trust them to calculate anything any more. Maybe they rounded the figure to get the weekly correct or something, I am not sure
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robski
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Post by robski on Jul 31, 2020 17:48:48 GMT
thanks - good point - I guess RS are doing this as it generates income ? I think its because ; 5 year - they are probably actually matching a fair amount at lower rates than the existing loans, or pretty close, plus they then get fees on top APM markets, the rates are now higher than many loans will be at, RS would be loosing money on these, and the rates its hitting in APM are well above the target rates they have Already, let alone draining off more capital I think the issue for the APM queue right now from what we are seemign to tease out, is that the incoming funds available for new lending / RYIs are nigh on matching the new lending, RS dont seem to want to lend anything on 5 year and as such in that case there is practically no RYI in APM right now If new lending remains similar then I suspect you may see some movement next week, when incoming cash in APM is higher than average lending Really as we have been trying to evaluate if all new lending is going into APM and RS are lending roughly 50% of total available funds (new + RYI) then APM is going to struggle to ever release much At this rate 5 year is munching through the queue even with seemingly half decent size amounts paying out
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Post by diversifier on Jul 31, 2020 17:53:18 GMT
Good afternoon all. Today we have delivered £0.3m and the full update is below: This time we are definitely allowed to say it is statistically significant. Null Hypothesis: the last three weeks have the same average as the previous nine. t = 4.47 p<0.0012 However, actually plotting the whole series as a time series scatter plot, now looks that it isn’t a “step down” as such. It’s just a fairly straight line decline from the start, with noise on it. Linear regression says a reduction of £0.13m per week over the time series, with correlation 0.84, or equivalently with a weekly sample standard deviation of £0.47m.
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robski
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Post by robski on Jul 31, 2020 18:07:32 GMT
Good afternoon all. Today we have delivered £0.3m and the full update is below: This time we are definitely allowed to say it is statistically significant. Null Hypothesis: the last three weeks have the same average as the previous nine. t = 4.47 p<0.0012 However, actually plotting the whole series as a time series scatter plot, now looks that it isn’t a “step down” as such. It’s just a fairly straight line decline from the start, with noise on it. Linear regression says a reduction of £0.13m per week over the time series, with correlation 0.84, or equivalently with a weekly sample standard deviation of £0.47m. Quoting myself as updating, oddly I just found I had one of the pop out windows still showing and the above isnt quite right, crazy how mumbers can muddle over 6 or so hours It wasnt 4.3% but 3.7% that gained the £160k, it went from £13 to £160,013 so I missed more than I thought at the start of the matching The window was I assume from the point I did the first update as it matches the £240k up to 6% When I picked up the processing it was on 4.3% as I have a note that I missed the start, but I missed more than I thought, or maybe I didnt, maybe the £160 wasnt there at the start of processing Looks like me missing the stat has added enough possibility of error that we will need to try again. Maybe someone placed it by error, and then withdrew it as such. I did annoyingly grab a load of screens during the processing but they were APM as I was trying to see if that was moving by anything other than borrower offers, and at the same time watch the weekly lending stats to see if tehy went up with 5 year and APM, they clearly only went up by the limited APM movements and these matched the changes in borrowers, certainly to rough thousands. I cant see how RS could have been behind it, it would have required moving investors money from APM to 5 year. The only % split that could have been moved was 4.3% since that was 175k roughly, but I am prtty sure that was still at that amount when the 160k arrived. I did grab a screenie of 5 year at the end of processing and the vast majority looks the same now, there are a few extra lender offers at the very bottom but only £5k diff in total between about 1;30pm and now which also seems to support no new lending on 5 year
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Post by stevepn on Jul 31, 2020 20:31:06 GMT
personally I can't square this with the very low number of cleared loans so unless the average was 200K I think this is mainly down to cancelled and completed loans - just my opinion. Disappointing as I think the lowest weekly total to date ?..looks like a downward trend to me... It looks like the vast majorly has gone to the 5 year queue. I've moved 215 places at the front of that queue, so would only need an average of a little over £10k per release to account for the whole £2.3m. EDIT: Rest assured that I will be bringing the average RYI amount right down next week I'm in access at position 14650 and only went up 1 place. Something not right there.
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Post by stevepn on Aug 1, 2020 9:09:44 GMT
It looks like the vast majorly has gone to the 5 year queue. I've moved 215 places at the front of that queue, so would only need an average of a little over £10k per release to account for the whole £2.3m. EDIT: Rest assured that I will be bringing the average RYI amount right down next week I'm in access at position 14650 and only went up 1 place. Something not right there. Only 1 more place again over night. Not looking good.
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on Aug 1, 2020 9:14:29 GMT
I'm in access at position 14650 and only went up 1 place. Something not right there. Only 1 more place again over night. Not looking good. I’m afraid to tell you that, once again, this was not ‘real’ processing movement in the queue. I’ve been stuck without a single move forward for 10 days. (But this is clearly not very surprising given that A/P/M likely barely got a penny yesterday.)
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beagle
Investor in ratesetter, funding circle, lendy (lesson learnt) and AC
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Post by beagle on Aug 1, 2020 16:53:25 GMT
Only 1 more place again over night. Not looking good. I’m afraid to tell you that, once again, this was not ‘real’ processing movement in the queue. I’ve been stuck without a single move forward for 10 days. (But this is clearly not very surprising given that A/P/M likely barely got a penny yesterday.) it will be cancelled sell outs in front just bumping you forwards
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on Aug 1, 2020 17:08:38 GMT
I’m afraid to tell you that, once again, this was not ‘real’ processing movement in the queue. I’ve been stuck without a single move forward for 10 days. (But this is clearly not very surprising given that A/P/M likely barely got a penny yesterday.) it will be cancelled sell outs in front just bumping you forwards Yup, I think we're all aware of this by now, thanks beagle!
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aju
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Post by aju on Aug 1, 2020 18:15:33 GMT
it will be cancelled sell outs in front just bumping you forwards Yup, I think we're all aware of this by now, thanks beagle ! It's the weekend, RS only clears releases for sales use during the day and then only on business days. Whereas the queue position updates everyday overnight - might as well get ordinary loans completing etc as it moves the numbers a little too.
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on Aug 1, 2020 18:29:16 GMT
Yup, I think we're all aware of this by now, thanks beagle ! It's the weekend, RS only clears releases for sales use during the day and then only on business days. Whereas the queue position updates everyday overnight - might as well get ordinary loans completing etc as it moves the numbers a little too. Why do we keep saying things that everyone already knows?! Also, not sure how relevant this is anyway given that the above discussion relates to queue position movement Friday -> Saturday (thereby taking account of any RYI processing that happened on Friday - a working day).
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Post by bernythedolt on Aug 1, 2020 22:25:59 GMT
Good afternoon all. Today we have delivered £0.3m and the full update is below: - This week we have delivered £2.3m of release requests - In the week commencing 20 July, we delivered £2.7m of release requests - In the week commencing 13 July, we delivered £2.4m of release requests - In the week commencing 6 July, we delivered £3.6m of release requests - In the week commencing 29 June, we delivered £4.3m of release requests - In the week commencing 22 June, we delivered £2.8m of release requests - In the week commencing 15 June, we delivered £3.5m of release requests - In the week commencing 8 June, we delivered £3.7m of release requests - In the week commencing 1 June, we delivered £3.5m of release requests - In the week commencing 25 May, we delivered £3.4m of release requests - In the week commencing 18 May, we delivered £4.0m of release requests - In the week commencing 11 May, we delivered £3.6m of release requests - In the week commencing 4 May, we delivered £3.6m of release requests - In the week commencing 27 April, we delivered £5.0m of release requests - In the week commencing 20 April, we delivered £4.5m of release requests - In the week commencing 13 April, we delivered £5.1m of release requests - In the week commencing 6 April, we delivered £4.5m of release requests - In the week commencing 30 March, we delivered £4.4m of release requests - In the week commencing 23 March, we delivered £4.9m of release requests - In the week commencing 16 March, we delivered £4.7m of release requests This time we are definitely allowed to say it is statistically significant. Null Hypothesis: the last three weeks have the same average as the previous nine. t = 4.47 p<0.0012 However, actually plotting the whole series as a time series scatter plot, now looks that it isn’t a “step down” as such. It’s just a fairly straight line decline from the start, with noise on it. Linear regression says a reduction of £0.13m per week over the time series, with correlation 0.84, or equivalently with a weekly sample standard deviation of £0.47m. Agreed. I get the exact same t value, and probability, and linear regression correlation, with a reduction of £0.12m per week over the period. (But, for what it's worth I calculate the sample standard deviation of those twenty figures as £0.85m).
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aju
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Post by aju on Aug 1, 2020 22:26:20 GMT
It's the weekend, RS only clears releases for sales use during the day and then only on business days. Whereas the queue position updates everyday overnight - might as well get ordinary loans completing etc as it moves the numbers a little too. Why do we keep saying things that everyone already knows?! Also, not sure how relevant this is anyway given that the above discussion relates to queue position movement Friday -> Saturday (thereby taking account of any RYI processing that happened on Friday - a working day). Some of us are getting on in years, sadly I barely know what day of the week it is now that Eastenders is not on!. The other issue - see covid (war and peace) thread - is that we seem to be moving towards exceptionally long threads too ... My queue stats sat morning suggest that the Access queue moved 1 place from Friday to Saturday and since I am so far back then i'm guessing that either that was a cancellation or more likely just a very large player or a couple perhaps spread over Friday/Sat . Just a thought!
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on Aug 3, 2020 8:59:47 GMT
Back in the fun and games of RYIs, and we have c. £1.2m available in A/P/M today.
Maybe just maybe RS was doing a little extra new lending in the last few weeks just to encourage Metro Bank across the line and might hold back just a littttttle now? Pretty please?
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robski
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Post by robski on Aug 3, 2020 9:11:46 GMT
Back in the fun and games of RYIs, and we have c. £1.2m available in A/P/M today. Maybe just maybe RS was doing a little extra new lending in the last few weeks just to encourage Metro Bank across the line and might hold back just a littttttle now? Pretty please? Do you think APM is finished processing payments? 5 year has some way to go, its probably 40-50% complete I would estimate
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