james
Posts: 2,205
Likes: 955
|
Post by james on Nov 22, 2014 23:45:37 GMT
My first deposit to Bondora was around mid November 2012. I'm now ranked 9th in those who have invested at least €10,000 for 24 months, 41st for those who have for 12 months, 54th with no term constraint, 1004th with no term or amount constraint, 228 with €1000 constraint.
Bondora calculates my return as 26.5% at the moment. My own XIRR is about 17% in Euros, 12.5% in pounds, assuming 100% loss of all 60+ day lates. Getting close to €8,000 in interest paid so far. About €820 in 60+ late. About €550 each in capital and interest payments each month.
How are you doing?
|
|
duck
Member of DD Central
Posts: 2,864 
Likes: 6,898
|
Post by duck on Nov 23, 2014 6:18:56 GMT
Smarting from a month when £530 was added to my +60 day 'account'!
Needless to say I haven't enjoyed this month.
|
|
|
|
Post by wiseclerk on Nov 23, 2014 8:10:32 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by analitikas on Nov 24, 2014 8:06:46 GMT
Hi there!
My first deposit (42% of total initial investment) was in March 2013, second in June (21%), third in August (21%) and the last on in October (16%). Weight average date of my first "deposit" is June 2013, if I can count in such a way.
My own XIRR shows about 14.68% return (assumptions: 100% x current+cash, 90% x overdue, 25% x 60 d.+ overdue), while Bondora calculates return at 28.98%.
The key reason for such a difference between my own XIRR and Bondora's should be related to my chosen strategy to purchase few days overdue loans from secondary market at discount. Some purchases turn into great profit after it turns green and is sold at 5-9% premium, but some get behind the track and turns red. I invest only in Estonia loans and thus if recovery rate sustains, I might get my XIRR closer to Bondora's in a year's time.
I am ranked 22nd in those who have invested at least 10k for 12 m, 269th position in overall for 12 m.
James, what assumptions do you use for your XIRR calculations?
|
|
james
Posts: 2,205
Likes: 955
|
Post by james on Nov 25, 2014 0:11:09 GMT
duck, that's pretty painful! I've been seeing a gradual increase, roughly consistent with my increase in lending with a nine month lag between lending and 60+ days late.
wiseclerk, thanks, pretty good and congratulations of being ahead of me in the rank!
analitikas, I assume that 60+ day late are 100% loss and ignore potential losses from those who are less late. If I assume 100% collection then my Euro XIRR increases by about 2.75%. Another big reason for the difference between my own XIRR calculation and Bondora's is the time money is not invested, which mine includes but Bondora's does not. Buying a little late and expecting payment is interesting because many borrowers do make late payments. All of my own lending is to Estonian borrowers.
|
|
|
|
Post by coolrunning on Nov 25, 2014 13:34:33 GMT
Hi there! My first deposit (42% of total initial investment) was in March 2013, second in June (21%), third in August (21%) and the last on in October (16%). Weight average date of my first "deposit" is June 2013, if I can count in such a way. My own XIRR shows about 14.68% return (assumptions: 100% x current+cash, 90% x overdue, 25% x 60 d.+ overdue), while Bondora calculates return at 28.98%. The key reason for such a difference between my own XIRR and Bondora's should be related to my chosen strategy to purchase few days overdue loans from secondary market at discount. Some purchases turn into great profit after it turns green and is sold at 5-9% premium, but some get behind the track and turns red. I invest only in Estonia loans and thus if recovery rate sustains, I might get my XIRR closer to Bondora's in a year's time. I am ranked 22nd in those who have invested at least 10k for 12 m, 269th position in overall for 12 m. James, what assumptions do you use for your XIRR calculations? It looks like we are not in the same league as the others. I also started in March, but 2014. My own XIRR shows about 13% return (assumptions: 100% x current+cash, 100% x overdue, 0% x 60 d.+ overdue), while Bondora calculates return at 17%. Nevertheless, I regard myself as a successful investor.
|
|
duck
Member of DD Central
Posts: 2,864
Likes: 6,898
|
Post by duck on Nov 25, 2014 17:46:56 GMT
yes but not unexpected and tempered by some decent recoveries/payment (@£90 this month) on my existing +60 days. Bondora is calculating me at just over 22% but what is meaningful to me is post tax and post exchange rate and that is currently showing 10.9%.
My portfolio is now over 1800 loans (!) in all countries (2500 loans total passed through my account). I have to agree with the Bondora statistics that the Finnish market has improved after the initial bad experience. Spain in my experience has gone the other way. Slovakia accounted for a fair amount of my +60s this month.
I haven't hit the 2 years yet (close).
|
|
jo
Member of DD Central
dead
Posts: 741
Likes: 498
|
Post by jo on Dec 1, 2014 13:47:06 GMT
Having read this thread with some interest, it's plain that Bondora stands out fairly uniquely as being the most opaque for actually knowing the value of your portfolio (absent multiple, and subjective, assumptions). The other platforms I use (RS Zopa FC & AC) state it fairly plainly, and that's that.
Seeing in this thread three different sets of user assumptions utilised in reaching XIRRs, I've been wondering if there is any other method which could be employed.
So I'm playing around with the notion of NPVing the 'Conservative Estimate' forecast (a rare articulation of an actual number, albeit forecast) and seeing what it throws up. The discount factor I'm using is what I could comfortably get on other platforms with a reserve fund (say RS 5.8% for instance). At present I know my loan book has an average tenor of ~4 years (though if anyone knows of an easy (non script) way of confirming this, I'd appreciate the steer).
Thoughts anyone? - it's just an exercise for now.
(please ignore the tax implications for now).
Add: Discounted present value calculator seems to be the most logical calculator I've played around with.
|
|
