corto
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one-syllabistic
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Post by corto on Mar 21, 2020 15:37:23 GMT
We probably all expect hair cuts. The question is: How much.
If we get 5, 8 or 12% now; a few percent may not hurt most (and not justify a stampede)
What do people expect? Or would go with?
PS: If you expect platforms to fail, better keep it to yourself. This discussion forum may have catalytic powers.
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ceejay
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Post by ceejay on Mar 21, 2020 17:11:52 GMT
We probably all expect hair cuts. The question is: How much. ... Considerably less than I just "lost" in S&S ! I guess the major difference is that if you are patient enough then your S&S holdings will return, one day. Whereas if a P2P loan fails, it fails, and there is no scope for large gains in performing loans to make up for that.
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aju
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Post by aju on Mar 22, 2020 15:18:21 GMT
We probably all expect hair cuts. The question is: How much. ... Considerably less than I just "lost" in S&S ! I guess the major difference is that if you are patient enough then your S&S holdings will return, one day. Whereas if a P2P loan fails, it fails, and there is no scope for large gains in performing loans to make up for that. I agree with that sentiment I've been in BT shares, amongst others, in 4/5 figure sums for more than 15 years now and the dividend return over the years has seen us well. I remember when shares in BT went up to £15 or more and I tried to sell them but before I could get through on the phone they went down to £11 over the space of a couple of hour thankfully I never got thorough to sell but even £11 a share would have been quite a profit at the time. I've seen them down at < 60p and above £15 but I made a firm decision a long while ago that they were providing a handsome top up income and it made more sense to hang on to them. One of the biggest mistakes that some people make is to buy at the top and sell too late after a drop.
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Post by mrclondon on Mar 23, 2020 2:48:09 GMT
We probably all expect hair cuts. Have to say that just at the moment I'm rather more concerned with the literal meaning of what you wrote, and how to achieve said over the coming months without putting my life at risk. 
In terms of p2p the effects are mostly going to remain unknown probably for years, but somewhat dependent of what sector the borrower is in. Enforcement of loans will stall, it will be seen as unethical even if the necessary court time can be found. In times of crisis banks have the moral duty to give almost unlimited forebearance.
Most trading businesses are now essentially hibernating with the benefit of retained staff being paid by the government. Some will be able to resume quickly, and the effect will simply be months/years of interest arrears. Some will elect to close once the penny drops that they are now shutdown for many months if the business was already loss making or barely profitable. Some in essential sectors will continue with minimal impact.
Some development projects may eventually get finished, but GDV will likely be heavily depressed ... depends entirely on the death rate as to how long it will take for the market to absorb the properties of the deceased. However, many of those are likely to be in need of refurbishment so possibly some scope for typical p2p borrowers to borrow, buy, add value and resell. Some may simply be in the right place at the right time and sell regardless.
Land bridging loans have always been crazy risk as the actual land value is often much lower than the loan (LTV being based on the meaningless concept of a residual valuation). Lending on them was always likely to result in huge losses if they defaulted.
Some loans will default because the principals haven't survived.
The world has changed. How much of the change is permanent it is impossible to say. Things may have to be done differently depending on how other countries on which we are dependent for parts of supply chains fare. In the end everything hinges on when mass vaccination across the globe can be achieved.
Sorry for the gloomy prognosis. Those who have followed my musings on the coronavirus thread will know I've held significantly more negative views on the whole crisis than many on the forum, but even I have been shocked at how bad things are. (I sold almost all my equity exposure before the market turned so to an extent can take a more philosphical view of my p2p loanbook which I'm not intending selling at discount. )
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TitoPuente
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Post by TitoPuente on Mar 23, 2020 15:28:22 GMT
Looking at the China and other Asian charts in www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ provides a glimpse into the future. Right now the curves for Europe and the US are on the positive slope, look bleak, and that is driving the government measures that are depressing the economy. As soon as the European and US curves reach a top and start going down the mood will turn to euphoria and there will be a recovery. |
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angrysaveruk
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Post by angrysaveruk on Mar 24, 2020 14:28:10 GMT
It is very hard to say but I would imagine the P2P sector will be hit very hard by this. All any of us can hope for is that after the initial peak that is coming the world gets back to some kind of normality gradually. I hope the P2P sector does the right thing and tries to work with borrowers and maybe suspends payments/interest until the world get back to some kind of normality. I have decided to stop my investing activities since I am not sure trying to profit from this situation is at all moral, and I am going to focus on turning my garden into a vegetable farm instead.
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rocky1
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Post by rocky1 on Mar 24, 2020 15:28:41 GMT
mr khan calling for all construction workers to stop work.this would seriously delay many p2p projects and test many platforms and borrowers.but if it helps to see off this invisible nightmare so be it.
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Mar 24, 2020 16:16:04 GMT
mr khan calling for all construction workers to stop work.this would seriously delay many p2p projects and test many platforms and borrowers.but if it helps to see off this invisible nightmare so be it. A project my daughter was meant to be working on this week is now stopped, as one of the main contractors has moved off site unilaterally. It may be resurrected when the dust clears as it is important infrastructure, personally I hope not until the virus is under control!
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rocky1
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Post by rocky1 on Mar 25, 2020 7:14:44 GMT
would major road works and pot holes be classed as essential work .a 12 week blitz while everything is so quite now would save a hell of lot of traffic disruption for when this is all over and we head for the sea side.
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scc
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Post by scc on Mar 25, 2020 12:51:59 GMT
would major road works and pot holes be classed as essential work .a 12 week blitz while everything is so quite now would save a hell of lot of traffic disruption for when this is all over and we head for the sea side. I suspect it would be impossible to maintain social distancing given it usually involves 6 people standing around watching someone else do the digging.
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p2pfan
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Post by p2pfan on Mar 25, 2020 23:25:12 GMT
The House Crowd have said in a recent Corona-related announcement about their development projects: "Whilst the levels of compensation might not be as high as the targeted rate, they should be circa 7%." These were paying c. 10% so that's a substantial haircut, alongside very significant delays with projects.
The worrying thing is that is could be a lot worse than a 10% return being slashed to 7%, and there may be some projects paying a yummy 0%.
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