blender
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Post by blender on Jan 9, 2015 9:59:18 GMT
You cad! Mine only went up by 0.3%, which s now where near 40% of what it was (luckily). Have you tried using IRR to work out what the correct answer is? No, I always thought the FC number was near enough after subtracting a bit for their massaging. My estimated fully diversified blah ... is 6.7% (roughly right) and so my actual FC return today at 15.2% is very much better. I am just looking forward to receiving thousands of pounds of windfall - perhaps tomorrow? Anything can happen with Father Christmas - when you believe. (Places trotter over heart and sings the FC house anthem - suggest 'When you wish upon a star', but we could have a competition while waiting for rates to rise.)
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Jan 9, 2015 10:10:29 GMT
The actual number can easily be way higher due to cash back or part sales .. I like to check ALL their math, which is frequently wrong .. Like the case I outlined where I paid for 16 parts and received / sold 17. They are mystified, the tech team will look into it, as soon as the beads are restrung.
P.s. 6.7% fully <blah> is a bit feeble for a forum member ... Did you buy all the 7% property loans? 8>.
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blender
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Post by blender on Jan 9, 2015 10:39:35 GMT
The actual number can easily be way higher due to cash back or part sales .. I like to check ALL their math, which is frequently wrong .. Like the case I outlined where I paid for 16 parts and received / sold 17. They are mystified, the tech team will look into it, as soon as the beads are restrung. P.s. 6.7% fully <blah> is a bit feeble for a forum member ... Did you buy all the 7% property loans? 8>. Life is too short, GSV. There are all sorts of small errors and the main concern is the lack of confidence it promotes in the platform - all the beads may fall off the wires one day. 6.7% is not an 'actual' number like my annualised return was until today. I thought that the estimated fully blah number was just a warning of what might happen if you over-diversify? I think you miss the FC fees in your comment, in that if you start with A+ at 8% and subtract 1.6% you get 6.4%. But perhaps you are using the special promotional calculator which Father Christmas gave you recently, software by the FCIT Team? However, you are nearly right in that I do seem to have bought over £200k of property loans, though not all held at one time of course. One of my trotter-fingers is now an inch shorter, but I am working on the compensation claim, with the help of some top tier lawyers. Note the Funding Circle Information Technology Team, or FCITT, takes its name from events on a particularly bad day when their leader was heard to exclaim " Oh FCITT, what have we done?"
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sl75
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Post by sl75 on Jan 9, 2015 11:03:15 GMT
6.7% is not an 'actual' number like my annualised return was yesterday. I thought that the estimated fully blah number was just a warning of what might happen if you over-diversify? It's just an obscure way of saying "estimated net return from current portfolio" - i.e. what you'd expect if you held your current loan book to maturity and the defaults were EXACTLY as expected. I don't understand what adding the words the "fully diversified" into "Estimated return (after bad debts and fees)" really adds - possibly some pedant pointed scenarios where that return definitely wouldn't be expected from an investor who was not fully diversified? Mine presently shows 7.0%, but I expect that'll increase in the medium-term, as the market demand for the (previously slow-moving) lower rate loans that are currently dragging down my average seems to be increasing.
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wysiati
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Post by wysiati on Jan 9, 2015 11:28:51 GMT
The choice of formula makes the figure highly sensitive to elements such as cashback.
With a stated annualised return which has jumped up to 30% I cannot take the figure seriously as a useful guide.
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wysiati
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Post by wysiati on Jan 9, 2015 11:32:21 GMT
The actual number can easily be way higher due to cash back or part sales .. I like to check ALL their math, which is frequently wrong .. Like the case I outlined where I paid for 16 parts and received / sold 17. They are mystified, the tech team will look into it, as soon as the beads are restrung. P.s. 6.7% fully <blah> is a bit feeble for a forum member ... Did you buy all the 7% property loans? 8>. Note the Funding Circle Information Technology Team, or FCITT, takes its name from events on a particularly bad day when their leader was heard to exclaim " Oh FCITT, what have we done?" That explains a lot. Website not working? FCITT.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Jan 9, 2015 13:47:57 GMT
6.7% is not an 'actual' number like my annualised return was yesterday. I thought that the estimated fully blah number was just a warning of what might happen if you over-diversify? It's just an obscure way of saying "estimated net return from current portfolio" - i.e. what you'd expect if you held your current loan book to maturity and the defaults were EXACTLY as expected. I don't understand what adding the words the "fully diversified" into "Estimated return (after bad debts and fees)" really adds - possibly some pedant pointed scenarios where that return definitely wouldn't be expected from an investor who was not fully diversified? Mine presently shows 7.0%, but I expect that'll increase in the medium-term, as the market demand for the (previously slow-moving) lower rate loans that are currently dragging down my average seems to be increasing. Yeah the 'fully diversified' means if you had the loans spread over the total population (i.e. instead of holding one A+ with 10% of your portfolio in, you actually had 50p in ALL the A+ loans that currently exist) AND THEN A+ default rates turned out to be just as predicted, so your A+ losses were EXACTLY the currently predicted number (0.3% maybe?) .... and then if the flying pigs all splashdown on runway 08E on schedule, and we remember to do the compounding properly, the 6.7% is what you might get (before tax). Regardless, it's still lower than I like to see (I prefer numbers North of 10.0%), although if you call property AAA+++ instead of just A+, maybe it makes sense (as long as your splashback was 4% or so. 8>.).
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blender
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Post by blender on Jan 9, 2015 14:04:32 GMT
I like to see my annualised return north of 10%, which it was even before the crazy maths, because I can spend that. The Fully diversified blah is irrelevant to me, and is just a consequence of having mostly property loans. I believe that number is based on the loans held and the interest/buyer rates achieved and takes no account of cash back. I sit with a large pile of cash back which is not at risk of default and so surely that adds a few percent towards your comfort level, GSV? If the 6.7% and the 10.6% were reversed, then I would be very unhappy.
There are many ways of playing this game. I like the excitement of my way, and am far enough ahead not to be taking any risks with the original capital plus bank interest. You can never (or not after 2.5 years) say that with equities because of the common-mode market failure risk.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jan 10, 2015 8:43:55 GMT
Am I doing something right, then...?
Annualised : 8.4%
Est Fully Diversified : 8.7%
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blender
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Post by blender on Jan 10, 2015 9:39:53 GMT
Am I doing something right, then...? Annualised : 8.4% Est Fully Diversified : 8.7% Yes. Nothing wrong with 8.4%. You are doing substantially better than FC's advertised average rate. Assuming this is a well diversified portfolio and of some maturity it is the sort of performance that comes from making buy-and -hold choices better than Autobid would. However, if a new account and built from the primary market, you would expect to have your annualised well above estimated.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jan 10, 2015 10:00:25 GMT
Am I doing something right, then...? Annualised : 8.4% Est Fully Diversified : 8.7% Yes. Nothing wrong with 8.4%. You are doing substantially better than FC's advertised average rate. <wince> Damning with faint praise! <grin> 160+ parts, max 0.7%. Parts have come from a mix of primary and secondary, about 2:1 SM:PM, with about 20% of raw earnings so far having gone to SM fees & premiums - I wanted to get a holding built fairly quickly (six months so far) and, yes, I probably overpaid on premium initially whilst learning how it worked.
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blender
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Post by blender on Jan 10, 2015 10:34:38 GMT
Yes. Nothing wrong with 8.4%. You are doing substantially better than FC's advertised average rate. <wince> Damning with faint praise! <grin> 160+ parts, max 0.7%. Parts have come from a mix of primary and secondary, about 2:1 SM:PM, with about 20% of raw earnings so far having gone to SM fees & premiums - I wanted to get a holding built fairly quickly (six months so far) and, yes, I probably overpaid on premium initially whilst learning how it worked. "<wince> Damning with faint praise! <grin>" That was not the intention. Not at all. After 6 months my return was not that good. There is a trade-off between effort and returns and you make your own decisions on how much you wish to work at it. It is hard to interpret just two numbers. I had assumed you had been a bit unlucky with losses ( but with recoveries to come), but it seems that you have bought on the SM at a premium rather than bought on the PM with cash back. That makes a huge difference to the figures, but cash back is infrequently available on the business loans. Actually the time at which you buy is, imo, more important than how you buy. When I started, back when the earth was still cooling, I put £10k through Autobid asking 8.9% gross. How dumb was that?
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Post by mostlywrong on Jan 12, 2015 10:23:31 GMT
Not as dumb as me lending £20 for 5 years @ 5.5% gross a while ago to someone who wanted to paint their toilet...
And it isn't even an A+ loan!
MW
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Post by Deleted on Jan 12, 2015 10:39:33 GMT
I'm at
12.1%
10.5%
9.5%
not flipping, just building up over last 3 months very diversified
Does anyone know how much longer this oversupply of cash compared with under-demand is going to go on? Everyone of my bids since mid December has failed due to large volume bids surging the interest rates down. Is this the arrival of high net worth individuals or companies in the market?
I'm slowly moving my unspent money out of FC as I can see ratesetter at a pretty safe 6% just over the hill and even property at 8% with 1% cash back is looking attractive with less risk etc.
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Post by thesnoop on Jan 12, 2015 10:59:10 GMT
I'm at
11.2%
13.6%
8.5%
3 Months in roughly.
Minor flipping to maintain healthy exposure.
The last figure has dropped recently and the second figure has risen, due to dipping onto property loans chasing splashback.
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