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Post by optymystic on Apr 17, 2020 12:18:34 GMT
It's a bit early to derive a trend but the beginning of the flat spot at the top was early March. It is my surmise that a similar graph for the whole of Zopa would show a similar pattern.  |
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aju
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Post by aju on Apr 17, 2020 15:26:28 GMT
It's a bit early to derive a trend but the beginning of the flat spot at the top was early March. It is my surmise that a similar graph for the whole of Zopa would show a similar pattern. Give it another 6 months and it will be nearer the bottom of the curve 
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Apr 17, 2020 16:13:55 GMT
It's a bit early to derive a trend but the beginning of the flat spot at the top was early March. It is my surmise that a similar graph for the whole of Zopa would show a similar pattern. Mine are still showing an upward trend, but who knows what will happen over the next few months.
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aju
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Post by aju on Apr 17, 2020 17:32:26 GMT
It's a bit early to derive a trend but the beginning of the flat spot at the top was early March. It is my surmise that a similar graph for the whole of Zopa would show a similar pattern. Mine are still showing an upward trend, but who knows what will happen over the next few months. I think ours have more levelled than still rising but Mrs Aju pulled the plug and we have been trying to sell since Mar 17th - mind you nothing is biting in the sale front. We are getting quite a bit of day to day return though. One thing we have noticed of late is that ISa loans have been heading towards negative returns - not quite there as such though - so it was prudent to consider a rethink in terms of exposure. We are not selling PF covered loans either. One thing seems to be clear though and that is the defaults seem to be normalising a little the following may be if interest We made 5 figure sales in ISA side in Apr/May 2019 Before the sales defaults were affecting earnings by avg -40% After these sales defaults were affecting earnings by -77% average The first 3 months of 2020 earnings were reduced by -58% So thinks seemed to be improving more recently but not enough to keep us in these at this time. The MRA is a bit of an issue but nothing has materialised in sales as yet to see by how much. Not great but Mrs Aju has spoken ... and it does seem to make sense to leave before profits are even more diminished
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Post by erniec on Apr 18, 2020 12:01:33 GMT
It's a bit early to derive a trend but the beginning of the flat spot at the top was early March. It is my surmise that a similar graph for the whole of Zopa would show a similar pattern. I’m not sure I agree. Defaults occur after 4 months of non-payment. March is too early for any Covid19 effect. Lockdown and reduction in finances only started mid-March. I would expect the real effect to come in the middle of the year.
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Post by optymystic on Apr 18, 2020 12:07:06 GMT
That graph reflects an account with thousands of micro-loans in it and therefore is unlikely to depart from the overall Zopa trend. Perhaps the flattening has been brought about by the changes in Zopa strategy and practice rather than defaults.
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Apr 18, 2020 14:07:39 GMT
That graph reflects an account with thousands of micro-loans in it and therefore is unlikely to depart from the overall Zopa trend. Perhaps the flattening has been brought about by the changes in Zopa strategy and practice rather than defaults. So do my accounts have thousands of micro loans in them and I have upward trends, so at least one of us is not following overall Zopa trend. 
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Post by fuzzyiceberg on Apr 20, 2020 12:59:26 GMT
I reckon most folk with/likely to have difficulties will have applied for a payment holiday and moved to 'arrangement'. Suspect defaults may be more than 4 months off.
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