benaj
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Post by benaj on Aug 13, 2020 16:18:36 GMT
😴
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Aug 13, 2020 19:20:00 GMT
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Post by dan1 on Aug 13, 2020 20:49:19 GMT
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Aug 14, 2020 12:07:20 GMT
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey pilot from ONSInteresting data from ONS: According to the ONS infection survey dateset:- Estimated infections between 11th May and 2nd August : 211,700 Total confirmed cases (Pillar 1 & 2) from GOV.UK between 11th May and 2nd August: 116,081 Total confirmed cases from GOV.UK (13th August): 313,798 It makes you wonder accuracy of REACT-2 study, estimated 3.4 million in the UK had COVID 19 at the end of June.
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Post by dan1 on Aug 14, 2020 12:38:30 GMT
The latest surveillance report has just been uploaded (used to be uploaded on Thursday but the last couple we've had to wait until Friday).
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Post by dan1 on Aug 14, 2020 14:03:53 GMT
The week 33 surveillance report is out. It now includes pillar 1 and pillar 2 positivity rate, prior to the week 31 report only pillar 1 positivity rate was reported (I scan the weekly reports but had missed this addition in week 31 and 32). Why is this important? It allows us to derive the number of people tested each week, and therefore the average number of people tested per day. The chart below was generated from a few simple sums on the "Figure 1. Pillar 1 + 2 epicurve" data in the downloadable spreadsheet. The total number of people tested equates to 5,493,548 (give or take a few due to the rounding on positivity rates). I guess someone tested on different days (e.g. tested on hospital admission and then on discharge) will count as > 2 people tested so this figure is very much the upper bound. Note it does not include pillar 3 (antibody tests) or pillar 4 (surveillance by PHE & ONS and research etc). I've not caught up with the news today regarding the disappearance of 1.3million tests. I'm not sure where the data above fits into that. I've not seen the analysis above in the limited amount of media I currently digest, odd? It's certainly a step in the right direction to provide positivity for pillar 2, even if the data is between 5 and 12 days out of date. However, it does make you wonder about Hancock's claim of 100,000 tests per day
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Aug 14, 2020 16:33:56 GMT
Date reported Daily cases Cumulative cases 14-08-2020 1,441 316,367 13-08-2020 1,129 314,927 12-08-2020 1,009 313,798 11-08-2020 1,148 312,789
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PHE does not help to provide more meaning info to the general public unless you have mad skills with the API.😡
No easy way to know Check region/ulta have more cases unless you make your own database.
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Post by dan1 on Aug 14, 2020 19:57:41 GMT
Date reported Daily cases Cumulative cases 14-08-2020 1,441 316,367 13-08-2020 1,129 314,927 12-08-2020 1,009 313,798 11-08-2020 1,148 312,789 📈 PHE does not help to provide more meaning info to the general public unless you have mad skills with the API.😡 No easy way to know Check region/ulta have more cases unless you make your own database. benaj - navigate to the bottom of the about page to download a csv of the cases. Either investigate this with a spreadsheet tool or even just a text editor. File includes nation, region, utla & ltla numbers.
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Post by dan1 on Aug 15, 2020 16:16:42 GMT
I’ve noticed a bit of a spike in cases in England on 10 August. 1297, more than double the previous day. Some of it is Northampton. It's now showing 1,318 for 10 August with 546 on 9 August. There are a number of factors that'll contribute to the difference. Firstly, the majority of positive cases come from pillar 2, and of these we could be seeing a significant proportion (if not the vast majority) from postal kits. You can't (well, shouldn't!) take the swab from a postal kit on a Sunday or Bank Holiday because it's returned via RM post boxes. Look back on previous weeks and the same pattern is seen, although admittedly not as pronounced. I'd also guess that there are more pillar 1 tests Mon-Fri. Lastly, we're seeing an uptick in cases but hopefully because of better targeted track & trace. ~~~~ This has bugged me for a while. If you're someone in a very low risk group (and living with other very low risk people) and think you may have symptoms then, putting it selfishly, why should you get tested? If it comes back positive then you're locked down again at the height of the summer and you risk losing your job, put you under further financial pressure and maybe even risk losing your home. Surely, it's good enough just to stay away from family and the vulnerable? Isn't there a massive disincentive to get tested? I'm not saying it's the right thing to do but you could understand people thinking this way.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Aug 15, 2020 19:18:52 GMT
www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueeaCompare the latest situation with other European countries, the UK is doing better than France, Spain at the moment with respect to 14-day cumulative number of COVID-19 cases per 100 000 The bottom line, European countries are not in the positions to suppress the infection, unlike some Asian regions, like Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan. We still see increasing cases in Itlay and Germany, although they have fewer cases compared to the UK.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Aug 15, 2020 21:51:53 GMT
www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueeaCompare the latest situation with other European countries, the UK is doing better than France, Spain at the moment with respect to 14-day cumulative number of COVID-19 cases per 100 000 The bottom line, European countries are not in the positions to suppress the infection, unlike some Asian regions, like Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan. We still see increasing cases in Itlay and Germany, although they have fewer cases compared to the UK. * subject to the comprehensiveness and accuracy of the testing regime, and the timeliness and accuracy of reporting. It's not that I disagree with you benaj, but we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that the data is dirty and reporting measures and standards have been seen to evolve.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Aug 17, 2020 15:50:57 GMT
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths are showing figures again, much lower than those shown previously due to change of methodology. Latest 7-day average deaths appears to be around 10-12 for the UK.
Just 3 (!) Covid19 deaths today in the UK (using the new criteria).
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Aug 17, 2020 16:08:28 GMT
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths are showing figures again, much lower than those shown previously due to change of methodology. Latest 7-day average deaths appears to be around 10-12 for the UK.
Just 3 (!) Covid19 deaths today in the UK (using the new criteria).
Is this the change that doesn't count anyone who recovered from COVID-19 more than 28 days ago?
I still find the situation surreal. I'm sat at home isolating with covid-19, a petrol tanker crashes into my house and explodes, and my death is counted as covid related?
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Post by dan1 on Aug 17, 2020 16:11:54 GMT
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths are showing figures again, much lower than those shown previously due to change of methodology. Latest 7-day average deaths appears to be around 10-12 for the UK.
Just 3 (!) Covid19 deaths today in the UK (using the new criteria).
Hmmm... seems too much of a coincidence. On the day of Boris' latest u-turn, this time on A-Level grades, they re-write history and resurrect the dead in the Covid-19 crisis My bet is that Cummings et al. only bought one licence from Faculty for this "world-beating" algorithm. Perhaps they thought it better to downgrade deaths as opposed to grades?
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Aug 17, 2020 16:12:20 GMT
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths are showing figures again, much lower than those shown previously due to change of methodology. Latest 7-day average deaths appears to be around 10-12 for the UK.
Just 3 (!) Covid19 deaths today in the UK (using the new criteria).
Is this the change that doesn't count anyone who recovered from COVID-19 more than 28 days ago?
I still find the situation surreal. I'm sat at home isolating with covid-19, a petrol tanker crashes into my house and explodes, and my death is counted as covid related?
Note on above website "Number of deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test. The actual cause of death may not be COVID-19 in all cases. People who died from COVID-19 but had not tested positive are not included and people who died from COVID-19 more than 28 days after their first positive test are not included. Data from the four nations are not directly comparable as methodologies and inclusion criteria vary."
Re your petrol tanker example: that used to be the case. If you'd ever tested positive for Covid19, your death would be put down as a Covid19 death. Now the death is listed as Covid19 only if your positive test was in previous 28 days, but - yes - you could still have been hit by a petrol tanker.
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