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Post by dan1 on Aug 17, 2020 16:14:17 GMT
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths are showing figures again, much lower than those shown previously due to change of methodology. Latest 7-day average deaths appears to be around 10-12 for the UK.
Just 3 (!) Covid19 deaths today in the UK (using the new criteria).
Is this the change that doesn't count anyone who recovered from COVID-19 more than 28 days ago?
I still find the situation surreal. I'm sat at home isolating with covid-19, a petrol tanker crashes into my house and explodes, and my death is counted as covid related?
About as surreal as being admitted to hospital with Covid-19, spending five weeks on a ventilator before dying and then NOT being counted as a Covid-19 death. Go figure. As Boris said, excess deaths is the gold standard and judge us on that.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Aug 17, 2020 16:16:55 GMT
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths are showing figures again, much lower than those shown previously due to change of methodology. Latest 7-day average deaths appears to be around 10-12 for the UK.
Just 3 (!) Covid19 deaths today in the UK (using the new criteria).
Hmmm... seems too much of a coincidence. On the day of Boris' latest u-turn, this time on A-Level grades, they re-write history and resurrect the dead in the Covid-19 crisis My bet is that Cummings et al. only bought one licence from Faculty for this "world-beating" algorithm. Perhaps they thought it better to downgrade deaths as opposed to grades? I supposed there is a common thread:
-deaths were being counted as Covid19 when they weren't
-A* A-level results now to be awarded when they weren't earned
Perhaps, in both cases, it's just the results people want?
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Aug 17, 2020 16:18:54 GMT
Hmmm... seems too much of a coincidence. On the day of Boris' latest u-turn, this time on A-Level grades, they re-write history and resurrect the dead in the Covid-19 crisis My bet is that Cummings et al. only bought one licence from Faculty for this "world-beating" algorithm. Perhaps they thought it better to downgrade deaths as opposed to grades? I supposed there is a common thread:
-deaths were being counted as Covid19 when they weren't
-A* A-level results now to be awarded when they weren't earned
Perhaps, in both cases, it's just the results people want?
Not sure, but I'll be happy to provide a predicated grade for Boris' next stats exam.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Aug 17, 2020 16:22:41 GMT
Is it the case that doctor's provide a cause of death and/or a cause is recorded on the death certificate? If so why not use that?
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Aug 17, 2020 16:25:36 GMT
I supposed there is a common thread:
-deaths were being counted as Covid19 when they weren't
-A* A-level results now to be awarded when they weren't earned
Perhaps, in both cases, it's just the results people want?
Not sure, but I'll be happy to provide a predicated grade for Boris' next stats exam. It's been reported that teachers' predictions (now to be accepted?) would have lead to double-digit increase in the number of top-grades awarded. People can clearly make up their own mind whether that's because this is the brightest group of A-level students we've ever seen, or simple grade inflation.
There was a related article in the Sunday Times yesterday (read the print edition, so no link, sorry) about degree results. I believe the figures quoted was that in the mid 1990s only 7% of degrees were Firsts, now it's around 29%. As to 'good' passes (Firsts or 2:1s), the figures were 40-something% then, and high 70s% now. Again, is it because teaching is so much better and/or students so much brighter, or simply Unis need paying bums-on-seats and believe awarding lots of good class degrees is the way to attract customers.
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michaelc The easy case is the person who tested positive for Covid19 60 days ago, then got hit by a truck. I'm sure the death certificate would indicate the truck as the cause of death.
I'm guessing it's more tricky if the person had long-term underlying health condition, e.g. dodgy heart. If they die of 'heart failure' 60 days after testing positive for Covid19, was it simply that their heart gave out (as it could have pre-Covid19) or it gave out due to them being severely weakened by Covid19? If it's the latter, what's the cause of death?
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Aug 17, 2020 16:47:55 GMT
Not sure, but I'll be happy to provide a predicated grade for Boris' next stats exam. It's been reported that teachers' predictions (now to be accepted?) would have lead to double-digit increase in the number of top-grades awarded. People can clearly make up their own mind whether that's because this is the brightest group of A-level students we've ever seen, or simple grade inflation.
There was a related article in the Sunday Times yesterday (read the print edition, so no link, sorry) about degree results. I believe the figures quoted was that in the mid 1990s only 7% of degrees were Firsts, now it's around 29%. As to 'good' passes (Firsts or 2:1s), the figures were 40-something% then, and high 70s% now. Again, is it because teaching is so much better and/or students so much brighter, or simply Unis need paying bums-on-seats and believe awarding lots of good class degrees is the way to attract customers.
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michaelc The easy case is the person who tested positive for Covid19 60 days ago, then got hit by a truck. I'm sure the death certificate would indicate the truck as the cause of death.
I'm guessing it's more tricky if the person had long-term underlying health condition, e.g. dodgy heart. If they die of 'heart failure' 60 days after testing positive for Covid19, was it simply that their heart gave out (as it could have pre-Covid19) or it gave out due to them being severely weakened by Covid19? If it's the latter, what's the cause of death?
Personally I wouldn't let teachers go within a million miles of assesing their own students, given the obvious conflict of interest.
I assume Universities don't want half full classes, and will therefore accept however many students are needed to fill the lectures. Why not let natural selection take it's course with the Universities taking the numbers that they need regardless of whether they are all A* or B grades.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Aug 17, 2020 16:54:19 GMT
It's been reported that teachers' predictions (now to be accepted?) would have lead to double-digit increase in the number of top-grades awarded. People can clearly make up their own mind whether that's because this is the brightest group of A-level students we've ever seen, or simple grade inflation.
There was a related article in the Sunday Times yesterday (read the print edition, so no link, sorry) about degree results. I believe the figures quoted was that in the mid 1990s only 7% of degrees were Firsts, now it's around 29%. As to 'good' passes (Firsts or 2:1s), the figures were 40-something% then, and high 70s% now. Again, is it because teaching is so much better and/or students so much brighter, or simply Unis need paying bums-on-seats and believe awarding lots of good class degrees is the way to attract customers.
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michaelc The easy case is the person who tested positive for Covid19 60 days ago, then got hit by a truck. I'm sure the death certificate would indicate the truck as the cause of death.
I'm guessing it's more tricky if the person had long-term underlying health condition, e.g. dodgy heart. If they die of 'heart failure' 60 days after testing positive for Covid19, was it simply that their heart gave out (as it could have pre-Covid19) or it gave out due to them being severely weakened by Covid19? If it's the latter, what's the cause of death?
Personally I wouldn't let teachers go within a million miles of assesing their own students, given the obvious conflict of interest.
I assume Universities don't want half full classes, and will therefore accept however many students are needed to fill the lectures. Why not let natural selection take it's course with the Universities taking the numbers that they need regardless of whether they are all A* or B grades.
Oxford's Worcester College had already said they'd take all pupils they'd made offers to.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Aug 17, 2020 17:16:22 GMT
Not sure, but I'll be happy to provide a predicated grade for Boris' next stats exam. It's been reported that teachers' predictions (now to be accepted?) would have lead to double-digit increase in the number of top-grades awarded. People can clearly make up their own mind whether that's because this is the brightest group of A-level students we've ever seen, or simple grade inflation.
There was a related article in the Sunday Times yesterday (read the print edition, so no link, sorry) about degree results. I believe the figures quoted was that in the mid 1990s only 7% of degrees were Firsts, now it's around 29%. As to 'good' passes (Firsts or 2:1s), the figures were 40-something% then, and high 70s% now. Again, is it because teaching is so much better and/or students so much brighter, or simply Unis need paying bums-on-seats and believe awarding lots of good class degrees is the way to attract customers.
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michaelc The easy case is the person who tested positive for Covid19 60 days ago, then got hit by a truck. I'm sure the death certificate would indicate the truck as the cause of death.
I'm guessing it's more tricky if the person had long-term underlying health condition, e.g. dodgy heart. If they die of 'heart failure' 60 days after testing positive for Covid19, was it simply that their heart gave out (as it could have pre-Covid19) or it gave out due to them being severely weakened by Covid19? If it's the latter, what's the cause of death?
I must be thick as still not getting this. Case1: death cert recording truck is presumably "correct" Case2: harder call but that is why I'd assumed such a call would be made by a doctor on the ground and not by some algorthim.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Aug 17, 2020 17:18:40 GMT
It's been reported that teachers' predictions (now to be accepted?) would have lead to double-digit increase in the number of top-grades awarded. People can clearly make up their own mind whether that's because this is the brightest group of A-level students we've ever seen, or simple grade inflation.
There was a related article in the Sunday Times yesterday (read the print edition, so no link, sorry) about degree results. I believe the figures quoted was that in the mid 1990s only 7% of degrees were Firsts, now it's around 29%. As to 'good' passes (Firsts or 2:1s), the figures were 40-something% then, and high 70s% now. Again, is it because teaching is so much better and/or students so much brighter, or simply Unis need paying bums-on-seats and believe awarding lots of good class degrees is the way to attract customers.
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michaelc The easy case is the person who tested positive for Covid19 60 days ago, then got hit by a truck. I'm sure the death certificate would indicate the truck as the cause of death.
I'm guessing it's more tricky if the person had long-term underlying health condition, e.g. dodgy heart. If they die of 'heart failure' 60 days after testing positive for Covid19, was it simply that their heart gave out (as it could have pre-Covid19) or it gave out due to them being severely weakened by Covid19? If it's the latter, what's the cause of death?
I must be thick as still not getting this. Case1: death cert recording truck is presumably "correct" Case2: harder call but that is why I'd assumed such a call would be made by a doctor on the ground and not by some algorthim. You're right, my examples added nothing.
Perhaps IFISAcava can venture an opinion on why 'they' made such a mess of the count of Covid19 deaths.
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Post by dan1 on Aug 17, 2020 18:10:12 GMT
Is it the case that doctor's provide a cause of death and/or a cause is recorded on the death certificate? If so why not use that? The ONS who are, to coin a phrase, world-beating do use the doctor's findings: I'd recommend you read the following: Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional: week ending 31 July 2020
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending31july2020There's an important point to made here. PHE are an executive agency of DHSC, i.e. PHE are under the control of DHSC. This is distinct from the NHS (or more precisely NHS England with health devolved in Scotland and Wales (not sure about NI)) which is an independent body and therefore should be free of the kind of interference that PHE is subject to. The current structure doesn't go way back, it's relatively recent and was born from the Health and Social Care Act 2012 (Cameron govt.). The leaked news on Saturday evening that PHE was going to be abolished basically boils down to a reorganisation of DHSC, i.e. admittance that the current structure simply didn't perform as required.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Aug 17, 2020 19:46:46 GMT
Is it the case that doctor's provide a cause of death and/or a cause is recorded on the death certificate? If so why not use that? The ONS who are, to coin a phrase, world-beating do use the doctor's findings: I'd recommend you read the following: Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional: week ending 31 July 2020
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending31july2020There's an important point to made here. PHE are an executive agency of DHSC, i.e. PHE are under the control of DHSC. This is distinct from the NHS (or more precisely NHS England with health devolved in Scotland and Wales (not sure about NI)) which is an independent body and therefore should be free of the kind of interference that PHE is subject to. The current structure doesn't go way back, it's relatively recent and was born from the Health and Social Care Act 2012 (Cameron govt.). The leaked news on Saturday evening that PHE was going to be abolished basically boils down to a reorganisation of DHSC, i.e. admittance that the current structure simply didn't perform as required. Guardian reporting "Dido Harding to run agency replacing Public Health England ... Harding will be named as the chair of the National Institute for Health Protection, which will be charged with preventing future outbreaks of infectious diseases, despite the poor performance of NHS test and trace, which she has led since May. Her appointment, which the health secretary, Matt Hancock, is due to confirm on Tuesday.."
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Post by dan1 on Aug 17, 2020 20:06:14 GMT
The ONS who are, to coin a phrase, world-beating do use the doctor's findings: I'd recommend you read the following: Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional: week ending 31 July 2020
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending31july2020There's an important point to made here. PHE are an executive agency of DHSC, i.e. PHE are under the control of DHSC. This is distinct from the NHS (or more precisely NHS England with health devolved in Scotland and Wales (not sure about NI)) which is an independent body and therefore should be free of the kind of interference that PHE is subject to. The current structure doesn't go way back, it's relatively recent and was born from the Health and Social Care Act 2012 (Cameron govt.). The leaked news on Saturday evening that PHE was going to be abolished basically boils down to a reorganisation of DHSC, i.e. admittance that the current structure simply didn't perform as required. Guardian reporting "Dido Harding to run agency replacing Public Health England ... Harding will be named as the chair of the National Institute for Health Protection, which will be charged with preventing future outbreaks of infectious diseases, despite the poor performance of NHS test and trace, which she has led since May. Her appointment, which the health secretary, Matt Hancock, is due to confirm on Tuesday.." From Wikipedia (my bold):
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Aug 17, 2020 20:44:33 GMT
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Post by bracknellboy on Aug 18, 2020 6:57:59 GMT
competency was never a mandatory requirement for govt posts, but this bunch of clowns led by the clown-in-chief have taken it to a whole new level. It will take many years for the cronyism currently in play to work its way through the system. Just look at the last batch of misfits and miscreants that have been stuffed into a bloated House of Lords based mostly on a single qualification of having been 'faithful to the cause'.
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blender
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Post by blender on Aug 18, 2020 7:06:51 GMT
competency was never a mandatory requirement for govt posts, but this bunch of clowns led by the clown-in-chief have taken it to a whole new level. It will take many years for the cronyism currently in play to work its way through the system. Just look at the last batch of misfits and miscreants that have been stuffed into a bloated House of Lords based mostly on a single qualification of having been 'faithful to the cause'. That's so unfair. Universities have always stretched the academic boundaries to include those who can contribute to their sporting prowess. The House of Lords geriatric cricket team will be unbeatable. A sad loss for advertisers of garage doors, presumably.
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