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Post by jasonnewman on Apr 23, 2020 9:52:19 GMT
BREAKING: Taylor Wimpey announces it will restart work on the majority of its construction sites from May 4
Surely this should mean construction restarting on AC loans and therefore sales of houses against these loans and thus more cash forthcoming in the coming months?
What do others think?
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Post by danielbird193 on Apr 23, 2020 10:01:32 GMT
I think it's great news, especially for the thousands of staff and sub-contractors who must work on their sites up and down the country. It's a good step forward.
That said, I think there's probably limited read-across from the actions of Taylor Wimpey (with £4.8 billion market cap and an army of knowledgeable people to update Risk Assessments and Method Statements to make sure their sites are as safeas possible) to some of the small developers funded by our loans on AC. We're lending to the kind of developers who don't have all the resources to get things back on track quickly, so I think some of the sites could be shut down for longer yet.
It's an even greater leap to say that construction work starting will lead to sales and then loan repayments. At the moment the housing market is pretty much frozen, with very few completions happening whatsoever. While it's technically possible for someone to complete on and move into a newly-developed house in the current lockdown, the practicalities of surveys, mortgage valuations, removal companies and estate agents mean that it's just not happening. I think it will be 3 months at least before we see any meaningful 'unfreezing' of the property market, and even after 6 months we won't be back to the levels of activity seen in Q4 last year.
Sadly I think we'll be stuck in some of these non-performing loans for quite some time, Taylor Wimpey notwithstanding.
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Post by jasonnewman on Apr 23, 2020 10:07:35 GMT
the practicalities of surveys, mortgage valuations, removal companies and estate agents mean that it's just not happening.
The above are external - if Taylor Wimpey can get things moving on that front don't see why others will have to wait 3 months - appreciate smaller builders will take more time compared to Wimpey but not convinced it will take 3 months. Loads of people are starting to defy this lockdown already....loads more cars and people on the streets....I think lockdown will be eased in the next two weeks.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Apr 23, 2020 10:10:29 GMT
I don't think it's a case of defying the lockdown. Several recent Credit Reports for AC development loans have said that even when the builders are continuing to work the site, they're having trouble with getting supplies because of other firms shutting up/reducing workforce.
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jlend
Member of DD Central
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Post by jlend on Apr 23, 2020 10:13:53 GMT
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