jonno
Member of DD Central
nil satis nisi optimum
Posts: 2,806 
Likes: 3,237
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Post by jonno on Dec 2, 2020 10:20:35 GMT
6 x £25 for me, all purchased since August. I've won 16 x £25 since the Sept draw. Of these, 13 were purchased in August (I topped up to £50k from £30k in time for the Sept draw). I know bernythedolt will blow me out of the water, but it is starting to look like a pattern to me  |
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markyg61
Member of DD Central
Posts: 350
Likes: 250
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Post by markyg61 on Dec 2, 2020 11:22:37 GMT
£50k and nowt this month !
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Post by wildlife2 on Dec 2, 2020 11:52:21 GMT
Sometimes all the prizes don't show until later in the day, that happened to me a few months ago when I looked too soon,
but just 1 x25 so far.
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jonno
Member of DD Central
nil satis nisi optimum
Posts: 2,806
Likes: 3,237
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Post by jonno on Dec 2, 2020 12:04:20 GMT
Sometimes all the prizes don't show until later in the day, that happened to me a few months ago when I looked too soon, but just 1 x25 so far. Are you using the "Prize Checker" or your account on the web site? I think the prize checker is comprehensive once published ie 2nd working day.
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wishy
Posts: 33
Likes: 42
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Post by wishy on Dec 2, 2020 12:37:33 GMT
2 x £25 again
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Post by wildlife2 on Dec 2, 2020 12:59:17 GMT
Sometimes all the prizes don't show until later in the day, that happened to me a few months ago when I looked too soon, but just 1 x25 so far. Are you using the "Prize Checker" or your account on the web site? I think the prize checker is comprehensive once published ie 2nd working day. I always use the Prize Checker, but it did happen a few months ago when more turned up later 
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dead-money
Rocket to the Moon
Posts: 746
Likes: 654
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Post by dead-money on Dec 2, 2020 13:12:18 GMT
£50k and nowt this month ! Yep, over a year of nowt from £50K, just holding out for the big one...
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travolta
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,506
Likes: 1,214
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Post by travolta on Dec 2, 2020 18:29:34 GMT
Just £25 for me (£50,000 stake). Feeling the pinch ....may cash out /cash in again.
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travolta
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,506
Likes: 1,214
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Post by travolta on Dec 2, 2020 18:31:09 GMT
6 x £25 for me, all purchased since August. I've won 16 x £25 since the Sept draw. Of these, 13 were purchased in August (I topped up to £50k from £30k in time for the Sept draw). I know bernythedolt will blow me out of the water, but it is starting to look like a pattern to me  ...be careful crossing the road.
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Post by bernythedolt on Dec 2, 2020 20:09:13 GMT
6 x £25 for me, all purchased since August. I've won 16 x £25 since the Sept draw. Of these, 13 were purchased in August (I topped up to £50k from £30k in time for the Sept draw). I know bernythedolt will blow me out of the water, but it is starting to look like a pattern to me You've caught me in a good mood, jonno , so I'll just ask you to sit on the naughty step for a suitable period. Next month should do it. Fascinating stuff. Firstly your six prizes this month... the MSE calculator has this to say, "You are lucky - only 0.674% of people who have put £50,000 in premium bonds over 1 month win more than £150". Although this is based on today's lower PB interest rate, you appear to be in an exalted group here. And then for all 6 of those prizes to happen to have come from the £20k block, with none from the £30k block... well, that's a quite astonishing distribution (with odds ~0.4% of that happening by chance, I believe). Secondly, 16 prizes since September places you in the top 1% to 2% of prizewinners for luck, according to MSE. Again remarkable. But the icing on the cake is the distribution of those 16 prizes since September. If you really do have 13 from the £20k block and only 3 from the £30k block, I calculate the probability of that occurring by chance is 16C 13 x 0.4 13 x 0.6 3 = 0.000812, or 0.08%... otherwise known as a phenomenon! In your shoes, I would be double-checking my record-keeping to ensure no mistakes... and then buying myself a few lottery tickets!  Have to admit I'm at a loss to explain that run of luck, but I confidently predict it can't last. Back in the real world... 1 x £25 for me this month off the full holding. Best prepare yourself for a shock...
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Post by carol167 on Dec 3, 2020 10:00:32 GMT
1 x £25 for me too (£50k).
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Post by stevepn on Dec 15, 2020 10:11:34 GMT
2 x £25 this month.
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littleoldlady
Member of DD Central
Running down all platforms due to age
Posts: 3,045
Likes: 1,862
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Post by littleoldlady on Dec 16, 2020 16:57:38 GMT
6 x £25 for me, all purchased since August. I've won 16 x £25 since the Sept draw. Of these, 13 were purchased in August (I topped up to £50k from £30k in time for the Sept draw). I know bernythedolt will blow me out of the water, but it is starting to look like a pattern to me You've caught me in a good mood, jonno , so I'll just ask you to sit on the naughty step for a suitable period. Next month should do it. Fascinating stuff. Firstly your six prizes this month... the MSE calculator has this to say, "You are lucky - only 0.674% of people who have put £50,000 in premium bonds over 1 month win more than £150". Although this is based on today's lower PB interest rate, you appear to be in an exalted group here. And then for all 6 of those prizes to happen to have come from the £20k block, with none from the £30k block... well, that's a quite astonishing distribution (with odds ~0.4% of that happening by chance, I believe). Secondly, 16 prizes since September places you in the top 1% to 2% of prizewinners for luck, according to MSE. Again remarkable. But the icing on the cake is the distribution of those 16 prizes since September. If you really do have 13 from the £20k block and only 3 from the £30k block, I calculate the probability of that occurring by chance is 16C 13 x 0.4 13 x 0.6 3 = 0.000812, or 0.08%... otherwise known as a phenomenon! In your shoes, I would be double-checking my record-keeping to ensure no mistakes... and then buying myself a few lottery tickets! Have to admit I'm at a loss to explain that run of luck, but I confidently predict it can't last. Back in the real world... 1 x £25 for me this month off the full holding. Best prepare yourself for a shock... If you are lucky at the outset you can bank that luck. There is no reason why it should be compensated by later bad luck. With average luck for the remainder of the period jonno will end up winning more than average. Similarly if you are unlucky at the outset you need more than average luck thereafter to get the average return, but you are no more likely than anyone else to get better luck.
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jonno
Member of DD Central
nil satis nisi optimum
Posts: 2,806
Likes: 3,237
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Post by jonno on Dec 16, 2020 17:12:45 GMT
You've caught me in a good mood, jonno , so I'll just ask you to sit on the naughty step for a suitable period. Next month should do it. Fascinating stuff. Firstly your six prizes this month... the MSE calculator has this to say, "You are lucky - only 0.674% of people who have put £50,000 in premium bonds over 1 month win more than £150". Although this is based on today's lower PB interest rate, you appear to be in an exalted group here. And then for all 6 of those prizes to happen to have come from the £20k block, with none from the £30k block... well, that's a quite astonishing distribution (with odds ~0.4% of that happening by chance, I believe). Secondly, 16 prizes since September places you in the top 1% to 2% of prizewinners for luck, according to MSE. Again remarkable. But the icing on the cake is the distribution of those 16 prizes since September. If you really do have 13 from the £20k block and only 3 from the £30k block, I calculate the probability of that occurring by chance is 16C 13 x 0.4 13 x 0.6 3 = 0.000812, or 0.08%... otherwise known as a phenomenon! In your shoes, I would be double-checking my record-keeping to ensure no mistakes... and then buying myself a few lottery tickets! Have to admit I'm at a loss to explain that run of luck, but I confidently predict it can't last. Back in the real world... 1 x £25 for me this month off the full holding. Best prepare yourself for a shock... If you are lucky at the outset you can bank that luck. There is no reason why it should be compensated by later bad luck. With average luck for the remainder of the period jonno will end up winning more than average. Similarly if you are unlucky at the outset you need more than average luck thereafter to get the average return, but you are no more likely than anyone else to get better luck. Do you know what?  ? I much prefer your logic to the"dolt's"
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Post by bernythedolt on Dec 19, 2020 11:07:05 GMT
Barbarians! Philistines! 😁
My logic is known as 'Regression to the Mean'... and you can't fight it!
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...be careful crossing the road.
? I much prefer your logic to the"dolt's"