
Post by deadmoney on Dec 2, 2020 13:12:18 GMT
£50k and nowt this month ! Yep, over a year of nowt from £50K, just holding out for the big one...


travolta
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Post by travolta on Dec 2, 2020 18:29:34 GMT
Just £25 for me (£50,000 stake). Feeling the pinch ....may cash out /cash in again.


travolta
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Post by travolta on Dec 2, 2020 18:31:09 GMT
6 x £25 for me, all purchased since August. I've won 16 x £25 since the Sept draw. Of these, 13 were purchased in August (I topped up to £50k from £30k in time for the Sept draw). I know bernythedolt will blow me out of the water, but it is starting to look like a pattern to me ...be careful crossing the road.



Post by bernythedolt on Dec 2, 2020 20:09:13 GMT
6 x £25 for me, all purchased since August. I've won 16 x £25 since the Sept draw. Of these, 13 were purchased in August (I topped up to £50k from £30k in time for the Sept draw). I know bernythedolt will blow me out of the water, but it is starting to look like a pattern to me You've caught me in a good mood, jonno , so I'll just ask you to sit on the naughty step for a suitable period. Next month should do it. Fascinating stuff. Firstly your six prizes this month... the MSE calculator has this to say, "You are lucky  only 0.674% of people who have put £50,000 in premium bonds over 1 month win more than £150". Although this is based on today's lower PB interest rate, you appear to be in an exalted group here. And then for all 6 of those prizes to happen to have come from the £20k block, with none from the £30k block... well, that's a quite astonishing distribution (with odds ~0.4% of that happening by chance, I believe). Secondly, 16 prizes since September places you in the top 1% to 2% of prizewinners for luck, according to MSE. Again remarkable. But the icing on the cake is the distribution of those 16 prizes since September. If you really do have 13 from the £20k block and only 3 from the £30k block, I calculate the probability of that occurring by chance is ^{16}C _{13} x 0.4 ^{13} x 0.6 ^{3} = 0.000812, or 0.08%... otherwise known as a phenomenon! In your shoes, I would be doublechecking my recordkeeping to ensure no mistakes... and then buying myself a few lottery tickets! Have to admit I'm at a loss to explain that run of luck, but I confidently predict it can't last. Back in the real world... 1 x £25 for me this month off the full holding. Best prepare yourself for a shock...



Post by carol167 on Dec 3, 2020 10:00:32 GMT
1 x £25 for me too (£50k).



Post by stevepn on Dec 15, 2020 10:11:34 GMT
2 x £25 this month.


littleoldlady
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Post by littleoldlady on Dec 16, 2020 16:57:38 GMT
6 x £25 for me, all purchased since August. I've won 16 x £25 since the Sept draw. Of these, 13 were purchased in August (I topped up to £50k from £30k in time for the Sept draw). I know bernythedolt will blow me out of the water, but it is starting to look like a pattern to me You've caught me in a good mood, jonno , so I'll just ask you to sit on the naughty step for a suitable period. Next month should do it. Fascinating stuff. Firstly your six prizes this month... the MSE calculator has this to say, "You are lucky  only 0.674% of people who have put £50,000 in premium bonds over 1 month win more than £150". Although this is based on today's lower PB interest rate, you appear to be in an exalted group here. And then for all 6 of those prizes to happen to have come from the £20k block, with none from the £30k block... well, that's a quite astonishing distribution (with odds ~0.4% of that happening by chance, I believe). Secondly, 16 prizes since September places you in the top 1% to 2% of prizewinners for luck, according to MSE. Again remarkable. But the icing on the cake is the distribution of those 16 prizes since September. If you really do have 13 from the £20k block and only 3 from the £30k block, I calculate the probability of that occurring by chance is ^{16}C _{13} x 0.4 ^{13} x 0.6 ^{3} = 0.000812, or 0.08%... otherwise known as a phenomenon! In your shoes, I would be doublechecking my recordkeeping to ensure no mistakes... and then buying myself a few lottery tickets! Have to admit I'm at a loss to explain that run of luck, but I confidently predict it can't last. Back in the real world... 1 x £25 for me this month off the full holding. Best prepare yourself for a shock... If you are lucky at the outset you can bank that luck. There is no reason why it should be compensated by later bad luck. With average luck for the remainder of the period jonno will end up winning more than average. Similarly if you are unlucky at the outset you need more than average luck thereafter to get the average return, but you are no more likely than anyone else to get better luck.


jonno
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Post by jonno on Dec 16, 2020 17:12:45 GMT
You've caught me in a good mood, jonno , so I'll just ask you to sit on the naughty step for a suitable period. Next month should do it. Fascinating stuff. Firstly your six prizes this month... the MSE calculator has this to say, "You are lucky  only 0.674% of people who have put £50,000 in premium bonds over 1 month win more than £150". Although this is based on today's lower PB interest rate, you appear to be in an exalted group here. And then for all 6 of those prizes to happen to have come from the £20k block, with none from the £30k block... well, that's a quite astonishing distribution (with odds ~0.4% of that happening by chance, I believe). Secondly, 16 prizes since September places you in the top 1% to 2% of prizewinners for luck, according to MSE. Again remarkable. But the icing on the cake is the distribution of those 16 prizes since September. If you really do have 13 from the £20k block and only 3 from the £30k block, I calculate the probability of that occurring by chance is ^{16}C _{13} x 0.4 ^{13} x 0.6 ^{3} = 0.000812, or 0.08%... otherwise known as a phenomenon! In your shoes, I would be doublechecking my recordkeeping to ensure no mistakes... and then buying myself a few lottery tickets! Have to admit I'm at a loss to explain that run of luck, but I confidently predict it can't last. Back in the real world... 1 x £25 for me this month off the full holding. Best prepare yourself for a shock... If you are lucky at the outset you can bank that luck. There is no reason why it should be compensated by later bad luck. With average luck for the remainder of the period jonno will end up winning more than average. Similarly if you are unlucky at the outset you need more than average luck thereafter to get the average return, but you are no more likely than anyone else to get better luck. Do you know what? ? I much prefer your logic to the"dolt's"



Post by bernythedolt on Dec 19, 2020 11:07:05 GMT
Barbarians! Philistines! 😁
My logic is known as 'Regression to the Mean'... and you can't fight it!


jonno
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Post by jonno on Dec 19, 2020 13:57:24 GMT
Barbarians! Philistines! 😁 My logic is known as 'Regression to the Mean'... and you can't fight it! Ok, let me try (I know I'm flogging a dead horse) If I tossed an unbiased coin say ten times and it landed heads every time, under your logic, presumably the odds of it landing on heads again are somewhat less than 50/50. Takes cover, awaiting incoming


littleoldlady
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Post by littleoldlady on Dec 19, 2020 15:10:11 GMT
Barbarians! Philistines! 😁 My logic is known as 'Regression to the Mean'... and you can't fight it! Ok, let me try (I know I'm flogging a dead horse) If I tossed an unbiased coin say ten times and it landed heads every time, under your logic, presumably the odds of it landing on heads again are somewhat less than 50/50. Takes cover, awaiting incoming No, all he is saying (rather rudely) is that the longer the period in question the closer to the average you will get. However this does not apply in closed end situations, so if jonno is 90 or more he has a better that evens chance of dying with a better than average return because he was lucky at the outset. To take your analogy further the first 10 turns were all heads, if we continued tossing we would expect the first 100 to be 55 heads plus or minus a few, the first 1000 to be 505 plus or minus and the first 1,000,000 to be 500,005 plus or minus.


jonno
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Post by jonno on Dec 19, 2020 16:59:29 GMT
Ok, let me try (I know I'm flogging a dead horse) If I tossed an unbiased coin say ten times and it landed heads every time, under your logic, presumably the odds of it landing on heads again are somewhat less than 50/50. Takes cover, awaiting incoming No, all he is saying (rather rudely) is that the longer the period in question the closer to the average you will get. However this does not apply in closed end situations, so if jonno is 90 or more he has a better that evens chance of dying with a better than average return because he was lucky at the outset. To take your analogy further the first 10 turns were all heads, if we continued tossing we would expect the first 100 to be 55 heads plus or minus a few, the first 1000 to be 505 plus or minus and the first 1,000,000 to be 500,005 plus or minus. Well, now I'm hoping I'm wrong, or I've got to croak



Post by bernythedolt on Dec 20, 2020 12:02:57 GMT
Ok, let me try (I know I'm flogging a dead horse) If I tossed an unbiased coin say ten times and it landed heads every time, under your logic, presumably the odds of it landing on heads again are somewhat less than 50/50. Takes cover, awaiting incoming No, all he is saying (rather rudely) is that the longer the period in question the closer to the average you will get. However this does not apply in closed end situations, so if jonno is 90 or more he has a better that evens chance of dying with a better than average return because he was lucky at the outset. To take your analogy further the first 10 turns were all heads, if we continued tossing we would expect the first 100 to be 55 heads plus or minus a few, the first 1000 to be 505 plus or minus and the first 1,000,000 to be 500,005 plus or minus. Rudely? Wow. That was certainly never the intention, so if I've come across that way I can only apologise to jonno. Perhaps my attempt at lightheartedness has backfired. Would you be kind enough to point out the rudeness, which escapes me, so I avoid that trap in the future? Regarding jonno's premium bonds, I tried to enumerate how he's enjoyed an extraordinary run of good luck recently, which I anticipate must shortly come to an end according to the theory. Plus some unexpected anomalies in the distribution of his prizes within his holding, which I would also expect to even out in the long run too.



Post by bernythedolt on Dec 20, 2020 12:23:07 GMT
Barbarians! Philistines! 😁 My logic is known as 'Regression to the Mean'... and you can't fight it! Ok, let me try (I know I'm flogging a dead horse) If I tossed an unbiased coin say ten times and it landed heads every time, under your logic, presumably the odds of it landing on heads again are somewhat less than 50/50. Takes cover, awaiting incoming No, the odds remain 50/50. The coin possesses no memory of what's gone before, and each spin is an independent event, so prob(heads)=prob(tails)=0.5 for each spin. Probability theory tells us a series of such spins will tend towards 50:50 as the long term ratio of heads vs. tails. So continue spinning and the ratio WILL come down towards 50:50. If you carried on spinning long enough, you will undoubtedly get a sequence of ten tails at some point too. My point throughout has been (in regards to your new premium bonds since September), getting that sequence of ten heads to start with is quite unusual and I would expect that pattern to break soon. For your sake I hope your run of good fortune continues, but I anticipate you soon joining the rest of us with our one or two prizes a month. 😞 Keep us posted!


littleoldlady
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Post by littleoldlady on Dec 20, 2020 17:04:35 GMT
No, all he is saying (rather rudely) is that the longer the period in question the closer to the average you will get. However this does not apply in closed end situations, so if jonno is 90 or more he has a better that evens chance of dying with a better than average return because he was lucky at the outset. To take your analogy further the first 10 turns were all heads, if we continued tossing we would expect the first 100 to be 55 heads plus or minus a few, the first 1000 to be 505 plus or minus and the first 1,000,000 to be 500,005 plus or minus. Rudely? Wow. That was certainly never the intention, so if I've come across that way I can only apologise to jonno . Perhaps my attempt at lightheartedness has backfired. Would you be kind enough to point out the rudeness, which escapes me, so I avoid that trap in the future?Regarding jonno 's premium bonds, I tried to enumerate how he's enjoyed an extraordinary run of good luck recently, which I anticipate must shortly come to an end according to the theory. Plus some unexpected anomalies in the distribution of his prizes within his holding, which I would also expect to even out in the long run too. I thought you were describing us as Barbarian Philistines. Apologies if I misunderstood.

