jonno
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nil satis nisi optimum
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Post by jonno on Dec 19, 2020 13:57:24 GMT
Barbarians! Philistines! 😁 My logic is known as 'Regression to the Mean'... and you can't fight it! Ok, let me try (I know I'm flogging a dead horse) If I tossed an unbiased coin say ten times and it landed heads every time, under your logic, presumably the odds of it landing on heads again are somewhat less than 50/50.   Takes cover, awaiting incoming 
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littleoldlady
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Post by littleoldlady on Dec 19, 2020 15:10:11 GMT
Barbarians! Philistines! 😁 My logic is known as 'Regression to the Mean'... and you can't fight it! Ok, let me try (I know I'm flogging a dead horse) If I tossed an unbiased coin say ten times and it landed heads every time, under your logic, presumably the odds of it landing on heads again are somewhat less than 50/50. Takes cover, awaiting incoming No, all he is saying (rather rudely) is that the longer the period in question the closer to the average you will get. However this does not apply in closed end situations, so if jonno is 90 or more he has a better that evens chance of dying with a better than average return because he was lucky at the outset. To take your analogy further the first 10 turns were all heads, if we continued tossing we would expect the first 100 to be 55 heads plus or minus a few, the first 1000 to be 505 plus or minus and the first 1,000,000 to be 500,005 plus or minus.
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jonno
Member of DD Central
nil satis nisi optimum
Posts: 2,806
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Post by jonno on Dec 19, 2020 16:59:29 GMT
Ok, let me try (I know I'm flogging a dead horse) If I tossed an unbiased coin say ten times and it landed heads every time, under your logic, presumably the odds of it landing on heads again are somewhat less than 50/50. Takes cover, awaiting incoming No, all he is saying (rather rudely) is that the longer the period in question the closer to the average you will get. However this does not apply in closed end situations, so if jonno is 90 or more he has a better that evens chance of dying with a better than average return because he was lucky at the outset. To take your analogy further the first 10 turns were all heads, if we continued tossing we would expect the first 100 to be 55 heads plus or minus a few, the first 1000 to be 505 plus or minus and the first 1,000,000 to be 500,005 plus or minus. Well, now I'm hoping I'm wrong, or I've got to croak  
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Post by bernythedolt on Dec 20, 2020 12:02:57 GMT
Ok, let me try (I know I'm flogging a dead horse) If I tossed an unbiased coin say ten times and it landed heads every time, under your logic, presumably the odds of it landing on heads again are somewhat less than 50/50. Takes cover, awaiting incoming No, all he is saying (rather rudely) is that the longer the period in question the closer to the average you will get. However this does not apply in closed end situations, so if jonno is 90 or more he has a better that evens chance of dying with a better than average return because he was lucky at the outset. To take your analogy further the first 10 turns were all heads, if we continued tossing we would expect the first 100 to be 55 heads plus or minus a few, the first 1000 to be 505 plus or minus and the first 1,000,000 to be 500,005 plus or minus. Rudely? Wow. That was certainly never the intention, so if I've come across that way I can only apologise to jonno. Perhaps my attempt at light-heartedness has backfired. Would you be kind enough to point out the rudeness, which escapes me, so I avoid that trap in the future? Regarding jonno's premium bonds, I tried to enumerate how he's enjoyed an extraordinary run of good luck recently, which I anticipate must shortly come to an end according to the theory. Plus some unexpected anomalies in the distribution of his prizes within his holding, which I would also expect to even out in the long run too.
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Post by bernythedolt on Dec 20, 2020 12:23:07 GMT
Barbarians! Philistines! 😁 My logic is known as 'Regression to the Mean'... and you can't fight it! Ok, let me try (I know I'm flogging a dead horse) If I tossed an unbiased coin say ten times and it landed heads every time, under your logic, presumably the odds of it landing on heads again are somewhat less than 50/50. Takes cover, awaiting incoming No, the odds remain 50/50. The coin possesses no memory of what's gone before, and each spin is an independent event, so prob(heads)=prob(tails)=0.5 for each spin. Probability theory tells us a series of such spins will tend towards 50:50 as the long term ratio of heads vs. tails. So continue spinning and the ratio WILL come down towards 50:50. If you carried on spinning long enough, you will undoubtedly get a sequence of ten tails at some point too. My point throughout has been (in regards to your new premium bonds since September), getting that sequence of ten heads to start with is quite unusual and I would expect that pattern to break soon. For your sake I hope your run of good fortune continues, but I anticipate you soon joining the rest of us with our one or two prizes a month. 😞 Keep us posted!
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littleoldlady
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Running down all platforms due to age
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Post by littleoldlady on Dec 20, 2020 17:04:35 GMT
No, all he is saying (rather rudely) is that the longer the period in question the closer to the average you will get. However this does not apply in closed end situations, so if jonno is 90 or more he has a better that evens chance of dying with a better than average return because he was lucky at the outset. To take your analogy further the first 10 turns were all heads, if we continued tossing we would expect the first 100 to be 55 heads plus or minus a few, the first 1000 to be 505 plus or minus and the first 1,000,000 to be 500,005 plus or minus. Rudely? Wow. That was certainly never the intention, so if I've come across that way I can only apologise to jonno . Perhaps my attempt at light-heartedness has backfired. Would you be kind enough to point out the rudeness, which escapes me, so I avoid that trap in the future?Regarding jonno 's premium bonds, I tried to enumerate how he's enjoyed an extraordinary run of good luck recently, which I anticipate must shortly come to an end according to the theory. Plus some unexpected anomalies in the distribution of his prizes within his holding, which I would also expect to even out in the long run too. I thought you were describing us as Barbarian Philistines. Apologies if I misunderstood.
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Post by bernythedolt on Dec 20, 2020 18:45:12 GMT
Rudely? Wow. That was certainly never the intention, so if I've come across that way I can only apologise to jonno . Perhaps my attempt at light-heartedness has backfired. Would you be kind enough to point out the rudeness, which escapes me, so I avoid that trap in the future?Regarding jonno 's premium bonds, I tried to enumerate how he's enjoyed an extraordinary run of good luck recently, which I anticipate must shortly come to an end according to the theory. Plus some unexpected anomalies in the distribution of his prizes within his holding, which I would also expect to even out in the long run too. I thought you were describing us as Barbarian Philistines. Apologies if I misunderstood. Thank you for explaining. In hindsight, probably ill judged on my part, but that was meant as light-hearted humour (hence the smiley emoji).
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jonno
Member of DD Central
nil satis nisi optimum
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Post by jonno on Dec 21, 2020 8:52:34 GMT
No, all he is saying (rather rudely) is that the longer the period in question the closer to the average you will get. However this does not apply in closed end situations, so if jonno is 90 or more he has a better that evens chance of dying with a better than average return because he was lucky at the outset. To take your analogy further the first 10 turns were all heads, if we continued tossing we would expect the first 100 to be 55 heads plus or minus a few, the first 1000 to be 505 plus or minus and the first 1,000,000 to be 500,005 plus or minus. Rudely? Wow. That was certainly never the intention, so if I've come across that way I can only apologise to jonno . Perhaps my attempt at light-heartedness has backfired. Would you be kind enough to point out the rudeness, which escapes me, so I avoid that trap in the future? Regarding jonno 's premium bonds, I tried to enumerate how he's enjoyed an extraordinary run of good luck recently, which I anticipate must shortly come to an end according to the theory. Plus some unexpected anomalies in the distribution of his prizes within his holding, which I would also expect to even out in the long run too. Of course, absolutely no apology needed. I'm rather enjoying our highly scientific experiment. I know you're correct of course but since when is that going to stop me trying to prove you wrong? A bit worried though that I can only do that by keeping the experiment short and as I'm not planning on selling my bonds anytime soon, the alternative doesn't look too appetising. 
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Post by stevepn on Dec 31, 2020 21:53:54 GMT
Just £25 for me (£50,000 stake). Feeling the pinch ....may cash out /cash in again. I've thought of doing that myself. I would prefer one block of 50,000 rather than a lot of smaller ones.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 1, 2021 11:20:19 GMT
why?
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Post by stevepn on Jan 1, 2021 16:43:41 GMT
I feel there is more chance of hitting the spot in a big block than in a lot of smaller ones even though I know each number has an equal chance of winning.
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ceejay
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Post by ceejay on Jan 1, 2021 17:20:12 GMT
I feel there is more chance of hitting the spot in a big block than in a lot of smaller ones even though I know each number has an equal chance of winning. Interesting contrast between "feel" and "know". Just in case anyone were ever in doubt about the essential irrationality of people! BTW, cashing out and back in again will give you a month out of the draw - and, of course, you can be absolutely confident that that would have been the month where the big one hit!
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Post by carol167 on Jan 5, 2021 7:25:06 GMT
2 x 25 for me.
Still doing ok, despite the reduced prize fund.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Jan 5, 2021 9:26:58 GMT
Another £50 for me
I've had £50k invested for 5 months, and for 4 of the 5 I've won £50. I was going to shift some of my money to my Vanguard Life Strategy account if the payout started dropping, but think I'll let things run for another month or 2.
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jonno
Member of DD Central
nil satis nisi optimum
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Post by jonno on Jan 5, 2021 9:38:34 GMT
My lucky run appears to continue: 5 x £25. ( 4 from my original £30K, 1 from my £20K bought recently). bernythedolt, where does that leave my mean reversion?  |
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