registerme
Member of DD Central
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Likes: 6,437
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Post by registerme on Aug 5, 2021 12:04:57 GMT
Won £25 in July on the full £50K holding which brings my "interest" to 0.95% pa for the past year. The trend is undoubtedly down, so I'll pull out if I ever get two dud months in a row. "If it wasn't for bad luck, I wouldn't have no luck at all." - Cream  I've been fully invested for 12 draws.
- first 6 months - £425
- last 6 months - £225
Only one winning number got more than £25
Full amount: 2016 - £900 (largest single month £575) 2017 - £575 (largest single month £225) 2018 - £700 (largest single month £100) 2019 - £1500 (largest single month £1000) 2020 - £575 (largest single month £175) 2021 - £250 (largest single month £75) - obviously "to date" It's not a large enough sample size to be able to draw any conclusions beyond "just luck". But yeah, I need to pull the cat out of the bag this year  .
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Post by bernythedolt on Aug 6, 2021 9:50:43 GMT
Won £25 in July on the full £50K holding which brings my "interest" to 0.95% pa for the past year. The trend is undoubtedly down, so I'll pull out if I ever get two dud months in a row. "If it wasn't for bad luck, I wouldn't have no luck at all." - Cream I've been fully invested for 12 draws.
- first 6 months - £425
- last 6 months - £225
Only one winning number got more than £25
And sadly that is now the norm. In July's draw, 99% of prizes were allocated to the £25 bucket. August was expected to be 98%. It didn't used to be this way when rates were higher, but these days prizes above £25 are the real exception. Can't remember my last one, but if you get one you've been lucky! www.nsandi.com/get-to-know-us/monthly-prize-allocation
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Post by Ace on Aug 6, 2021 11:55:01 GMT
Statistically, roughly 1 in every 47.5 prizes is higher than £25.
To put it another way, someone with the maximum holding and average luck should expect a prize higher than £25 once every 2 years and 9 months.
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jonno
Member of DD Central
nil satis nisi optimum
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Post by jonno on Aug 6, 2021 12:13:38 GMT
Statistically, roughly 1 in every 47.5 prizes is higher than £25. To put it another way, someone with the maximum holding and average luck should expect a prize higher than £25 once every 2 years and 9 months. Never has such a great post contained such a shite message 
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littleoldlady
Member of DD Central
Running down all platforms due to age
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Post by littleoldlady on Aug 6, 2021 12:16:28 GMT
Statistically, roughly 1 in every 47.5 prizes is higher than £25. To put it another way, someone with the maximum holding and average luck should expect a prize higher than £25 once every 2 years and 9 months. That's an interesting calculation. Please show your working. I get 47.5/(50000/34500) = 32.75 months. Edit: Ok that's actually the same.
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Post by Ace on Aug 6, 2021 12:30:31 GMT
Statistically, roughly 1 in every 47.5 prizes is higher than £25. To put it another way, someone with the maximum holding and average luck should expect a prize higher than £25 once every 2 years and 9 months. That's an interesting calculation. Please show your working. I get 47.5/(50000/34500) = 32.75 months. All based on the Estimated August draw stats here. Yes, I rounded 32.75 months (= 2 years and 8.75 months) to 2 years and 9 months.
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Post by bernythedolt on Aug 6, 2021 14:15:22 GMT
That's an interesting calculation. Please show your working. I get 47.5/(50000/34500) = 32.75 months. All based on the Estimated August draw stats here. Yes, I rounded 32.75 months (= 2 years and 8.75 months) to 2 years and 9 months. ...PROVIDED we can trust the figures they post in that link. I've just noticed that if you add up the number of prizes for July, it doesn't sum to the total they've published! You can see immediately that 3,131,931 prizes at £25, plus 29,884 prizes at £50 , plus 29,884 at £100, plus..... comes to far more than the 3,167,726 total number of prizes they've published. The correct figure should be 3,199,250, as far as I can see. This invalidates my 99% figure for July in my post above, which should now read 98%. 
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agent69
Member of DD Central
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Post by agent69 on Aug 6, 2021 17:20:55 GMT
Statistically, roughly 1 in every 47.5 prizes is higher than £25. To put it another way, someone with the maximum holding and average luck should expect a prize higher than £25 once every 2 years and 9 months. That's an interesting calculation. Please show your working. I get 47.5/(50000/34500) = 32.75 months. Edit: Ok that's actually the same. you're not helping
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Post by redpete on Aug 10, 2021 16:55:20 GMT
I'm a firm believer in luck being smeared around evenly, but it is surprising the number of people who say that their returns fall with time. A friend of mine thinks you should churn your holding regularly, but I'm not sure that has any effect apart from making you feel you are doing something (and losing the odd few months in the draw). They are definitely reducing their chances of winning by taking their money out of the draw each time they churn it. Apart from that it just gives a false sense of control or influence over a random event.
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jonno
Member of DD Central
nil satis nisi optimum
Posts: 2,808
Likes: 3,241
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Post by jonno on Sept 2, 2021 8:34:15 GMT
Ok, Sept results in: 3 x £25. Can't complain |
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agent69
Member of DD Central
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Post by agent69 on Sept 2, 2021 9:10:13 GMT
After the zilch in August, back to my standard 2 x £25
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travolta
Member of DD Central
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Post by travolta on Sept 2, 2021 11:30:22 GMT
Me 2x25 1/2 1x25 on £100,000 stake. |
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Post by overthehill on Sept 2, 2021 12:05:24 GMT
The time to ditch the premium bonds is getting closer on the assumption that the cash strapped government is not going to sweeten them
Premium bonds AVERAGE prize money payout 1.0%
1 year FSCS fixed rate savings 1.45% and rising. That's an extra £450 quid a year for a 100k couple.
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IFISAcava
Member of DD Central
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Post by IFISAcava on Sept 2, 2021 13:30:42 GMT
The time to ditch the premium bonds is getting closer on the assumption that the cash strapped government is not going to sweeten them
Premium bonds AVERAGE prize money payout 1.0%
1 year FSCS fixed rate savings 1.45% and rising. That's an extra £450 quid a year for a 100k couple.
After higher rate tax the premium bonds still pay more (assuming you get almost 1% on average with decent size sums).
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Post by wildlife2 on Sept 2, 2021 14:12:49 GMT
Nothing for me this month 
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