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Post by mostlywrong on Jul 20, 2023 7:16:20 GMT
I am not certain that I understand the point you are making. The point I was making was that if you hold a bond that is say 15 years old, a higher proportion of other entrants to that draw 15 years ago will be in the situation of unclaimed and deceased than those of say 1 month ago. Add to that others that have cashed in in the meantime who would not be on the list to claim any retrospective payouts and it means that the 15 year old bond will have a greater likelihood of such a payout.
Taking my situation of the mother in law dying 15 years before the bond was cashed in. If she had won a prize the month after dying which went unclaimed, that couldn't have been reallocated until 15 years later. By that time the next person on the backup list may have died and number 3 may have cashed in so the prize goes to number 4 on the list. Had the prize been won 1 month before cashing in, the likelihood of the payment getting to number 4 on the list is almost 0 so older bonds must have a greater probability of these payouts purely on the basis that a greater proportion of entrants to older draws are no longer eligible for prizes from that draw for whatever reason.
Thanks for explaining.
MW
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Post by bernythedolt on Jul 20, 2023 12:22:10 GMT
This is an interesting point. When my OH's dad died, she cashed in her mothers bonds, who had died some 15 years earlier (her father had not done this) . Had she won a prize a month after dying, that payment would have been made to a holder 15 years after the draw occurred. This begs the question of what happens if the next person on the list has died or cashed in in the meantime. Presumably then they must also forfeit the prize. If that is the case it would actually mean that longer held bonds have a greater chance of winning a prize than newer bonds purely down to the fact that any old unpaid bonds would have an increasingly smaller number of eligible bonds to make that payment to.
I am not certain that I understand the point you are making. A quick scan of one winning bond number shows that it has a number consisting of NNNAANNNNNN where A = alphabet and N = a number. Stitch that together and there are bonds to the tune of: 10*10*10*26*26*26*10*10*10*10*10*10. In scientific terms: 1.7576E+13. In human terms: 17.576 quadrillion. [...] Nowhere near the quadrillion scale, I'm afraid (a quadrillion being 10^15). 10^12 was one billion to us Brits (in so-called "long form" nomenclature) or one trillion to our American cousins (in "short form"). These days, one trillion is the common usage. Since 1974, in fact, when the UK adopted the US "short form" notation. So your number of combinations is 17.576 trillion. I'm not sure this is true. Are bonds recycled like this? I don't believe so. I've bought bonds over a number of decades now and the one thing I've noticed is the 3 numerics at the start of the bond are continually increasing, year by year. This strongly suggests that every new bond issued is a fresh bond and has never been in previous circulation.
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Post by mostlywrong on Jul 20, 2023 14:18:14 GMT
I asked Dr Google about my answer as I thought that I might be muddling my quads and my trills.
And I thought I understood Dr Google's answer, but...
Your explanation reads a lot better. Thanks.
As regards the issuing of numbers. My understanding is that ALL potential numbers go into each draw. It is, apparently, easier to monitor the randomness of the draw if the same numbers are used.
After the draw has been made, and the selected numbers pass the statistical tests, the winning numbers that have not yet been sold and the "retired" numbers are removed.
That leaves the active numbers which are then matched to the holders.
A number that has never been issued might already have won a prize and that was my point.
I am actually more inclined to believe that Tommy Cooper is behind it all with his grin, manic laugh and catch-phrase "just like that..."
MW
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ozboy
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Mine's a Large One! (Snigger, snigger .......)
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Post by ozboy on Aug 1, 2023 14:02:29 GMT
I've finally binned NS&I today, too much bad luck getting consistently derisory winnings so I pulled the full £50K. There are FAR better homes for this wedge where it will actually be doing some "work" for me ............  |
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aju
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Post by aju on Aug 1, 2023 15:03:45 GMT
I've finally binned NS&I today, too much bad luck getting consistently derisory winnings so I pulled the full £50K. There are FAR better homes for this wedge where it will actually be doing some "work" for me ............ Should you have waited till tomorrow, just in case you won a smaller prize perhaps, or does one only have to have the fund in by the 1st of the month?. Mrs Aju tends to get 150-250 a month on her 50K. I pulled my 50k a while back leaving the marker £25. I passed a lot to Mrs Aju for tax reasons and put rest into various other products that got better rates as you say. Recently we moved considerable funds into VirginMoney ISA's - spread over 2 tax periods to simplify our tax stuff now that Mrs Aju is a tax player since becoming an NSP receiver earlier this year. All that said I get your sentiments as in my case never really got that much myself a couple of years or so back
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Aug 1, 2023 15:16:05 GMT
I've finally binned NS&I today, too much bad luck getting consistently derisory winnings so I pulled the full £50K. There are FAR better homes for this wedge where it will actually be doing some "work" for me ............ Should you have waited till tomorrow, just in case you won a smaller prize perhaps, or does one only have to have the fund in by the 1st of the month?. Mrs Aju tends to get 150-250 a month on her 50K. I pulled my 50k a while back leaving the marker £25. I passed a lot to Mrs Aju for tax reasons and put rest into various other products that got better rates as you say. Recently we moved considerable funds into VirginMoney ISA's - spread over 2 tax periods to simplify our tax stuff now that Mrs Aju is a tax player since becoming an NSP receiver earlier this year. All that said I get your sentiments as in my case never really got that much myself a couple of years or so back Hope she doesn't run off with it
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ozboy
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Post by ozboy on Aug 1, 2023 15:39:10 GMT
I've finally binned NS&I today, too much bad luck getting consistently derisory winnings so I pulled the full £50K. There are FAR better homes for this wedge where it will actually be doing some "work" for me ............ Should you have waited till tomorrow, just in case you won a smaller prize perhaps, or does one only have to have the fund in by the 1st of the month?. Mrs Aju tends to get 150-250 a month on her 50K. I pulled my 50k a while back leaving the marker £25. I passed a lot to Mrs Aju for tax reasons and put rest into various other products that got better rates as you say. Recently we moved considerable funds into VirginMoney ISA's - spread over 2 tax periods to simplify our tax stuff now that Mrs Aju is a tax player since becoming an NSP receiver earlier this year. All that said I get your sentiments as in my case never really got that much myself a couple of years or so back No idea about timing aju, I vaguely recall it's always best to cash out first day of the new month? Anyways, I'm impulsive and got totally fed up. There are definitely Lucky Bonds and Unlucky ones IMHO. My very first wedge, around £20K about 30 years ago was always winning decent prizes but I had to cash out for something else. I have been in and out of Premium Bonds ever since but never been anywhere near as lucky as that very first batch. It is often said that if you think your lot is "bad" then cash out and buy back in and get a completelly fresh lot, although you of course are not in the draw for your first "new" month.. I have also often read that it is impossible for a computer to be truly random, which would possibly/partly explain "bad" Premium Bonds? There are a few on here with brains the size of a planet when it comes to maths/algorithms/permutations & computations/etc/etc (looking at YOU Dolt!  ) so I'm sure I'll be corrected if my observation is incorrect and/or misleading. 
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Post by bracknellboy on Aug 1, 2023 15:46:33 GMT
Should you have waited till tomorrow, just in case you won a smaller prize perhaps, or does one only have to have the fund in by the 1st of the month?. Mrs Aju tends to get 150-250 a month on her 50K. I pulled my 50k a while back leaving the marker £25. I passed a lot to Mrs Aju for tax reasons and put rest into various other products that got better rates as you say. Recently we moved considerable funds into VirginMoney ISA's - spread over 2 tax periods to simplify our tax stuff now that Mrs Aju is a tax player since becoming an NSP receiver earlier this year. All that said I get your sentiments as in my case never really got that much myself a couple of years or so back No idea about timing aju , I vaguely recall it's always best to cash out first day of the new month? Anyways, I'm impulsive and got totally fed up. .... The 'best' time is the day after the draw is done i.e. after the end of the month i.e. first day of the next month. When asking for withdrawal, you are always given the option of 'immediately' or 'after the next draw'.
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jonno
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nil satis nisi optimum
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Post by jonno on Aug 1, 2023 16:25:37 GMT
I've finally binned NS&I today, too much bad luck getting consistently derisory winnings so I pulled the full £50K. There are FAR better homes for this wedge where it will actually be doing some "work" for me ............ Oh NOoooo! Your meagre returns always made me feel "Special"
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aju
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Post by aju on Aug 1, 2023 16:36:41 GMT
Should you have waited till tomorrow, just in case you won a smaller prize perhaps, or does one only have to have the fund in by the 1st of the month?. Mrs Aju tends to get 150-250 a month on her 50K. I pulled my 50k a while back leaving the marker £25. I passed a lot to Mrs Aju for tax reasons and put rest into various other products that got better rates as you say. Recently we moved considerable funds into VirginMoney ISA's - spread over 2 tax periods to simplify our tax stuff now that Mrs Aju is a tax player since becoming an NSP receiver earlier this year. All that said I get your sentiments as in my case never really got that much myself a couple of years or so back Hope she doesn't run off with it Not a chance! , Mind you she has said on more than one occasion if i pop me clogs first she's going to cash it all out sell up the house and travel the world until the funds run out - She has a number of girl friends who are all banking on the husbands going first!. She gets half my company pension and i'd get 2/3 of hers. I'm guessing NSP stops when one pushes up the daisies but i'm happy to be wrong. She won't be out of pocket either way. In both our cases the bread is well buttered for both of us. Mind one should never rest until one drops. Had a great teacher at tech college in the 80's whose favourite saying was "One shouldn't rest ones laurels, as you have none!" so far has worked well for us both
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Aug 2, 2023 8:04:11 GMT
£100
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jonno
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nil satis nisi optimum
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Post by jonno on Aug 2, 2023 8:29:37 GMT
2x£50; 2x£25. Not great. Maybe ozboy was right  |
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Aug 2, 2023 8:45:37 GMT
1x £100, 2 x £50 and 1x £25. Enough to keep me hooked for another month.
I have 2 x £15k blocks and 2 x £10k. One of the £10k blocks has only won once in the last 10 months, but had 3 of the August winners.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Aug 2, 2023 8:50:53 GMT
2x£50; 2x£25. Not great. Maybe ozboy was right According to my slide rule £150 a month (£1800 a year) is 3.6% tax free. For a basic rate tax payer, that's nearly as good as the best instant access current account.
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Aug 2, 2023 9:09:12 GMT
Just cashed in some partly because of poor returns, so this month I got £300. I obviously worried Ernie, maybe I'll buy them back! |
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) so I'm sure I'll be corrected if my observation is incorrect and/or misleading. 
