jonno
Member of DD Central
nil satis nisi optimum
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Post by jonno on Sept 2, 2023 17:10:59 GMT
Bunged my Premium Bonds £50K into Fundsmith and a few Vanguard Trackers. Smart move. I think.  ( I don't know anyone who has held the Max Premium Bonds for 5+ years and has ever come out ahead of basic savings interest.) My main thought is why you would do this now when PM's are paying the highest rate for years.? Why wouldn't you have done this when we were lucky to win the odd £25? It's not like the stock market is off to the races. Not saying you're wrong, but..........??
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Sept 2, 2023 17:15:38 GMT
Bunged my Premium Bonds £50K into Fundsmith and a few Vanguard Trackers. Smart move. I think. ( I don't know anyone who has held the Max Premium Bonds for 5+ years and has ever come out ahead of basic savings interest.) Hopefully not the Life Strategy 20, 40 or 60!
My best Vanguard performers are :
- FTSE Developed World ex-U.K. Equity Index Fund - Accumulation, and
- FTSE Global All Cap Index Fund Accumulation
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ozboy
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Mine's a Large One! (Snigger, snigger .......)
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Post by ozboy on Sept 2, 2023 17:19:01 GMT
Bunged my Premium Bonds £50K into Fundsmith and a few Vanguard Trackers. Smart move. I think. ( I don't know anyone who has held the Max Premium Bonds for 5+ years and has ever come out ahead of basic savings interest.) My main thought is why you would do this now when PM's are paying the highest rate for years.? Why wouldn't you have done this when we were lucky to win the odd £25? It's not like the stock market is off to the races. Not saying you're wrong, but..........?? As you know, PBs don't pay a "rate." I was pootling along for years receiving enough "prizes" to just about keep my appetite whetted for a "big one.". After a few low returns in a row I got out as I saw it as a losing streak from which I wouldn't recover. FAR happier with what I've now done, but we shall see!
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jonno
Member of DD Central
nil satis nisi optimum
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Post by jonno on Sept 2, 2023 17:24:22 GMT
My main thought is why you would do this now when PM's are paying the highest rate for years.? Why wouldn't you have done this when we were lucky to win the odd £25? It's not like the stock market is off to the races. Not saying you're wrong, but..........?? As you know, PBs don't pay a "rate." I was pootling along for years receiving enough "prizes" to just about keep my appetite whetted for a "big one.". After a few low returns in a row I got out as I saw it as a losing streak from which I wouldn't recover. FAR happier with what I've now done, but we shall see! Don't get me wrong , I've held Fundsmith and Vanguard for many years, I'm just questioning your timing really. Anyway, good luck 
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benaj
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N/A
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Post by benaj on Sept 2, 2023 18:12:18 GMT
Uncle Ernie says I only deserve 1x£50, but promise to deliver prize @ 4.65% from this September.
Meanwhile, family members got 23x and 4x of what I get this month. I guess Enrie promises to look after their fans.
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starfished
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Post by starfished on Sept 2, 2023 18:35:24 GMT
I have never been into PBs b/c by definition you cannot reach their quoted average* since the Law of Averages (over time) will drag you back to whatever the effective mean payout is. This 'true mean' must exclude the very top tier prizes which distort the total fund value of prizes. So. in 1995, for instance, PBs were then quoting '5.2%' average whereas 98% (then £50 or £100) of all prizes available constituted only about three quarters of this - and thus for 98% of ALL prizewinners therefore the average payout was not '5.2%' but more like '3.9%'. Oh, how people don't like to hear this because - anecdotally at least - many can report strings of 'above average' rate of prize wins (NOT 'above average' prize values of course - they're all inline with that 98% chance covering ALL possible prizes) Inevitably this observation is weighted toward NEW investors experiencing 'non average' rates of winning b/c the Law of Averages requires time to settle in to reveal the true average. Rather than looking at the first 6 months in isolation, looking at the first 12, 18, 24 etc will expose this. Another way of thinking about this 'truth' is that by holding on to PBs for longer you "can't take your luck with you" and the longer you chance that luck the more your returns will be governed by whatever the 'true' average return is. I assume the average payout has gone up significantly this year following base rate increases - meaning the prizes are now easier to win, or higher in value (or both) but, notice, you will only be tracking a losing position. The real winners here are the government, which succeeds in devaluing its debts. (* I keep my £1 bond bought for me as a child as the best strategy.) Rationally I agree with all of this. But always had a soft spot for PB (probably for the same reason P2P appealed), it lends itself well to unnecessary spreadsheet work. So like agent above, I have always tracked. While my luck was above average and will remain so until 2026 if I win nothing more (above 100% on the graph means I have higher than expected winnings), until the last batch it was below what I could get from a savings account. PB a lot more fun though  ![]()
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Sept 2, 2023 18:49:20 GMT
starfished your spreadsheet is much prettier than mine. I approve.
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Post by bracknellboy on Sept 2, 2023 20:44:01 GMT
Bunged my Premium Bonds £50K into Fundsmith and a few Vanguard Trackers. Smart move. I think. ( I don't know anyone who has held the Max Premium Bonds for 5+ years and has ever come out ahead of basic savings interest.) after taking into account paying tax at the higher rate vs tax free ?
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warn
Member of DD Central
Curmudgeon
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Post by warn on Sept 3, 2023 6:38:29 GMT
starfished your spreadsheet is much prettier than mine. I approve. Me too. (Though, cum ulative )
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Post by bracknellboy on Sept 3, 2023 8:11:59 GMT
I used to keep a spreadsheet of my PB winnings. Looks like we have a collection of spreadsheet junkies on the forum. But like a lot of things with me, after a time (admittedly quite a long time in this case) I got bored and stopped. Not least, because it didn't serve any useful purpose for me other than fun/curiosity (which can be good enough reason in itself). With PBs, what has been has been, and what will be is not influenced by what has been. Nice spreadsheet though starfished. |
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aju
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Post by aju on Sept 3, 2023 14:14:17 GMT
So this month was not as good as last month for Mrs Aju as she slipped back to just £150. That said its been quite regular to be fair with wins in all the last 12 months.
Mrs Aju £100+£50
Me Zilch but then for a single entry of £25 that's to be expected.
Mrs Aju's simple Average over the last 12 months was £262.5/Mth with her lowest month being Oct 22 @ £50 (2x25) and the highest, Sept 23, was £1775,made up of £1000, £500, 2x£100, £50 and £25.
Edit: Oops counted 13 months in error .... average should have been 262.5
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travolta
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Post by travolta on Sept 3, 2023 15:53:02 GMT
Its really just the tiny frisson every month .
That's why we gamble.
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Post by bernythedolt on Sept 4, 2023 21:52:35 GMT
A lot of truth in that. That little 'flutter' from PBs each month is just enough to placate my inner gambling demon, so saves me an awful lot of otherwise lost wagers at the bookies, scratch cards, national lottery, etc.
I wonder if that's true for others?
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michaelc
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Say No To T.D.S.
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Post by michaelc on Sept 4, 2023 21:58:33 GMT
A lot of truth in that. That little 'flutter' from PBs each month is just enough to placate my inner gambling demon, so saves me an awful lot of otherwise lost wagers at the bookies, scratch cards, national lottery, etc. I wonder if that's true for others? I realised fairly early on in adulthood that gambling on the financial markets would likely be far more profitable as the House commission is typically far lower.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Sept 8, 2023 11:42:10 GMT
Went onto the NS&I website and opened the prize history section. When I looked at the 'draw date' I was disappointed to see only one entry for September. However, when I looked accross to the prize value column it was £500.
Well the £500 has arrived in my bank account this morning, so I'm off down the pub for a burger and a couple of pints. Really looking forward to October. Hopeful of more PB wins, and for the first time I get two state pension payments in one month.
Happy days
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