chris1200
Member of DD Central
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Post by chris1200 on Jul 9, 2020 19:56:14 GMT
Average RYI = £10k? Therefore c£80k per day being released from genuine redemption processing. Balance of the much larger numbers that RateSetter are telling each day is being released (eg today = £1m) is coming from manual withdrawals that individuals (who have served RYIs) are making from their holding accounts. There is no other plausible explanation. Oh boy where to start with this one. 1) You've completely guessed at the average RYI figure and this is the entire basis for everything else you say. That's pretty ropey stuff for someone who ends with "there is no other plausible explanation". 2) The post above yours that you're probably getting your 8x RYI per day number from only relates to Access RYI processing, excluding 1-Year and 5-Year. The daily RS figure is for all markets. 3) That post also assumes that no one who isn't posting here received releases before and after the ones who posted here on the same days. Just because, of the people posting on this forum, the queue number moved from x to y on those days, doesn't mean those are the only releases that happened. 4) Other days, RS seem to have jumped by 100s of requests in the queue in a day or two. It's likely that when it 'slows down' like this, it's because there have been some big RYI requests to get through. And when it 'speeds up' there have probably been smaller ones. This, again, causes problems for your 'average' RYI amount. Mean average does not help much in such short time periods where there can be massive fluctuations. I'll probably stop there as people will give up reading...
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Post by oppsididitagain on Jul 9, 2020 20:35:22 GMT
Average RYI = £10k? Therefore c£80k per day being released from genuine redemption processing. Balance of the much larger numbers that RateSetter are telling each day is being released (eg today = £1m) is coming from manual withdrawals that individuals (who have served RYIs) are making from their holding accounts. There is no other plausible explanation. FYI- I am waiting fro 40K in the access, and if you look at the list someone very kindly set up, there are people with over 200K in the access RYI queue I dont think the average RYI = 10K On average 5/700K is waiting to be lent on the access market most mornings at the 3.0% level. IF RS are not lending to new businesses I would say this is what is driving the RYI's and the daily amounts.
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Post by diversifier on Jul 9, 2020 23:58:18 GMT
Average RYI = £10k? Therefore c£80k per day being released from genuine redemption processing. Balance of the much larger numbers that RateSetter are telling each day is being released (eg today = £1m) is coming from manual withdrawals that individuals (who have served RYIs) are making from their holding accounts. There is no other plausible explanation. FYI- I am waiting fro 40K in the access, and if you look at the list someone very kindly set up, there are people with over 200K in the access RYI queue I dont think the average RYI = 10K On average 5/700K is waiting to be lent on the access market most mornings at the 3.0% level. IF RS are not lending to new businesses I would say this is what is driving the RYI's and the daily amounts. The average *investment* is around £10k (£800m total assets divided by 80,000 investors). But averages are incredibly misleading. Probably most investors are small - only £100s to low £1000s - with huge long tail skew to high values. Plus, larger investors might act differently to smaller ones, so the RYI average may be quite different from the investment average. I estimate that the average RYI is about £40k, via a couple different ways. If the question one is trying to answer is “how long does it take the queue to get from Now to Where I Am”, you only need to know the RYI ID numbers, and extrapolate the line directly at the long-term average, which appears to be 15 per day’ish. The mix of investment sizes was probably fairly constant over the short timeframe that is relevant (mid to late March).
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beagle
Investor in ratesetter, funding circle, lendy (lesson learnt) and AC
Posts: 670
Likes: 322
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Post by beagle on Jul 10, 2020 8:18:14 GMT
Average RYI = £10k? Therefore c£80k per day being released from genuine redemption processing. Balance of the much larger numbers that RateSetter are telling each day is being released (eg today = £1m) is coming from manual withdrawals that individuals (who have served RYIs) are making from their holding accounts. There is no other plausible explanation. this is total guess work... what about the possibility that some investors have six figure balances in the queue and it will take days to move through that...
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aju
Member of DD Central
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Post by aju on Jul 10, 2020 9:26:49 GMT
I vouch for my piece of string over all others  . . . . and i'm keeping that length close to my chest in case it sparks another run on withdrawals ( Roll on May 5th !!!) |
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johnt
Investing in Ratesetter, Zopa and Assetz Capital since 2013
Posts: 127
Likes: 71
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Post by johnt on Jul 10, 2020 9:42:37 GMT
On the 9 April, RS started releasing requests in the Access market for 11 March, completing on 20 April so completed 18 requests and released £0.7 million on average per day.
On 21 April, RS started releasing requests in the Access market for 12 March, completing on 1 July so completed 14.2 requests and released £0.5 million on average per day.
As others have rightly pointed out, that doesn't take into account that there are other markets using the same request ID's and some requests will have been cancelled or fulfilled from payments but you can get a very rough idea when you can expect your RYI to be released in the Access using the above info. Personally I use 10 requests a day for a more realistic date.
So assuming nothing changes, based on 10 requests a day, I estimate that RS will finish processing release requests in the Access market as follows:
13 March - 8 September 2020
14 March - 6 October 2020
15 March - 20 December 2020
16 March - 30 June 2021
17 March - 20 December 2021
18 March - 10 May 2022
19 March - 8 October 2022
Obviously the further afield you look, the more inaccurate the estimate will be as I'm sure a lot will happen in the future that will have a significant effect on the RYIs.
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Post by freefalljunkie on Jul 10, 2020 10:07:51 GMT
I've pretty much given up worrying about how long the RYI process is going to take. My working assumption is that I am going to have to wait a very long time for all the loans to mature before I'll get my money back, unless there is a miraculous injection of liquidity from somewhere. My outstanding requests are from the 16th, 17th and 20th March - at the current rate it will be way into next year before the RYI process hits those dates. If Ratesetter is still in existence as an independent business this time next year I will be very surprised indeed - hopefully they will be part of Metro Bank rather than just another insolvent P2P platform. Fingers crossed.
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Post by lingield on Jul 10, 2020 11:45:37 GMT
A good analysis by johnt above. One note of optimism, without having any firm evidence I suspect that a number of the property loans have been rolled/extend, etc but these should hopefully be repaid in the coming months, particularly in the light of recent stamp duty cuts. As these will be sizeable facilities, they may have a significant impact on liquidity and the pace of the RYI queue.
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Post by oppsididitagain on Jul 10, 2020 12:19:23 GMT
A good analysis by johnt above. One note of optimism, without having any firm evidence I suspect that a number of the property loans have been rolled/extend, etc but these should hopefully be repaid in the coming months, particularly in the light of recent stamp duty cuts. As these will be sizeable facilities, they may have a significant impact on liquidity and the pace of the RYI queue. I agree, I think some property loans are being extended, but If a loan is extended or rolled, RS will have to pay back the original loan and re-borrow from the 1 Year market, or access like they were doing last year. They don't just extend the loan with the current lenders. So in a way that will decrease liquidity. Money on offer to be matched will get matched with the new loan, NOT people trying o ext the platform. Also when that loan is then repaid, whomever its matched to, will get a full repayment regardless if they asked for the RYI or not. In my case I havent requested any 1Yr or 5 Yr withdrawals, only access. I've had 3 1Yr loans repaid early , and 1 5Yr loan.
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Post by freefalljunkie on Jul 10, 2020 12:26:14 GMT
Well, the new feature on the website has appeared this morning giving the queue position. Credit where it is due to Ratesetter for making this available, but it gives me the news that there are 1889 request in front of mine on the 16th and 3640 in from the 17th. Ouch. At least we won't need to speculate on exactly how fast he queue is moving - it is there for all to see.
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beagle
Investor in ratesetter, funding circle, lendy (lesson learnt) and AC
Posts: 670
Likes: 322
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Post by beagle on Jul 10, 2020 12:27:35 GMT
they have now enabled you to see where you are in the queue
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Post by oppsididitagain on Jul 10, 2020 12:31:37 GMT
they have now enabled you to see where you are in the queue Cool feature, how ever. Im number 390942 and I have 8278 people in front of me... !!
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Post by saintpeter on Jul 10, 2020 12:59:33 GMT
they have now enabled you to see where you are in the queue This doesn't make sense. They are saying I have over 4,000 RYI ahead of me in the queue, however, according to the reference number I have for my RYI request, I have less than 1000 in front of me (according to people here who have had their access requests released and have revealed their reference number). Also, there are people with later reference numbers than mine who have had their money released (albeit from non-access platforms).
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Post by lingield on Jul 10, 2020 13:01:28 GMT
A good analysis by johnt above. One note of optimism, without having any firm evidence I suspect that a number of the property loans have been rolled/extend, etc but these should hopefully be repaid in the coming months, particularly in the light of recent stamp duty cuts. As these will be sizeable facilities, they may have a significant impact on liquidity and the pace of the RYI queue. I agree, I think some property loans are being extended, but If a loan is extended or rolled, RS will have to pay back the original loan and re-borrow from the 1 Year market, or access like they were doing last year. They don't just extend the loan with the current lenders. So in a way that will decrease liquidity. Money on offer to be matched will get matched with the new loan, NOT people trying o ext the platform. Also when that loan is then repaid, whomever its matched to, will get a full repayment regardless if they asked for the RYI or not. In my case I havent requested any 1Yr or 5 Yr withdrawals, only access. I've had 3 1Yr loans repaid early , and 1 5Yr loan. The point that I was trying to make is that the properties should now sell given the stamp duty relief and therefore I would hope that a large number of the property loans will be repaid (some will not because they are at too early a stage of development). Although, a large proportion of those proceeds will be used to pay existing investors it appears that some investors are continuing to invest and therefore there might be more funds available for RYI. We will see what happens in six/eight weeks time. We may also see consolidation of unsecured personal debt into secured mortgage lending if people decide to move, but this might be a little too optimistic to make a material difference.
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chris1200
Member of DD Central
Posts: 827
Likes: 508
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Post by chris1200 on Jul 10, 2020 13:06:40 GMT
they have now enabled you to see where you are in the queue This doesn't make sense. They are saying I have over 4,000 RYI ahead of me in the queue, however, according to the reference number I have for my RYI request, I have less than 1000 in front of me (according to people here who have had their access requests released and have revealed their reference number). Also, there are people with later reference numbers than mine who have had their money released (albeit from non-access platforms). What is your queue number? The people who have had their money released in other markets are clearly not relevant to your position.
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