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Post by elephantrosie on May 31, 2020 2:00:14 GMT
Is it tempting to go back in? Like many posters I suspect I have been quietly withdrawing cash from a variety of P2P platforms. I never did buy the hysterical screaming from some posters that, for example, “AC was finished, destroyed” or that “RS management are incompetent” , but did take the view that discretion was the better part of valour, and best to take cash out now and then survey the damage and work out what next to do. I have filled up to max protection limits with RCI Bank, Coventry BS, Skipton BS, Aldermore, Investec, and I have even stuffed some cash into Premium Bonds. I am still expecting the same again in cash back from Ratesetter , AC, Relendex, Wellesley and blooming Funding Circle- so decision os now what to do with the next influx of cash. Opening yet more easy access accounts that just immediately cut rates as soon as I deposit cash is about as fun as an evening listening to Dominic Cummings. It strikes me that, while we aren’t out of the woods yet, there are a few glimpses of sunlight appearing, and it is possible to work out which platforms have had “a decent war” and which have been awful- FC are clearly in the last category, but to be honest they were awful for some time before. I know others have different views, but I think in their own ways the management teams at AC, RS, even Wellesley and Relendex have so far done pretty well. I will almost certainly hold off for reinvesting for a few weeks, but I think the platform risk for some of the P2P players has reduced, and assuming interest rates return to normal (so RS stops the 50% haircut), I think some of the platforms will merit a re-evaluation. I am sure a number of posters will point out that in their opinion I am mad- but I am planning to reinvest most if not all of the cash I am still waiting for into RS (if interstate’s rates go back) , AC (if they sort out queuing, I don’t want to go in and get trapped), and Rlendex (on the low LTV loans). In my view, filling up FSCS accounts is the safest strategy. Unless you have millions to store, there are quite a lot of savings accounts with unrelated banks/BS's that are currently paying some interest. I'm not disappointed with how most p2p platforms handled the situation and not trying to desperately withdraw all cash I have in p2p (some don't even give you a choice  ). I prefer to exercise patience for now. I might restore the level of my holdings in AC, RS and some others in future depending how the things pan out. may i ask what are the bank accounts that you are using now?
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Post by Ton ⓉⓞⓃ on May 31, 2020 6:36:05 GMT
In my view, filling up FSCS accounts is the safest strategy. Unless you have millions to store, there are quite a lot of savings accounts with unrelated banks/BS's that are currently paying some interest. I'm not disappointed with how most p2p platforms handled the situation and not trying to desperately withdraw all cash I have in p2p (some don't even give you a choice ). I prefer to exercise patience for now. I might restore the level of my holdings in AC, RS and some others in future depending how the things pan out. may i ask what are the bank accounts that you are using now? Sorry, you didn't ask me but these seem quite good...
Is it tempting to go back in? Like many posters .... <snip> I have filled up to max protection limits with RCI Bank, Coventry BS, Skipton BS, Aldermore, Investec, and I have even stuffed some cash into Premium Bonds. I am still expecting ... <snip>
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ashtondav
Member of DD Central
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Post by ashtondav on May 31, 2020 8:28:55 GMT
Hmmm... you're a risk-junky IMO - I mean that in the nicest possible way I get the distinct feeling (and really, I have absolutely no expertise in investing - think I'd be here if I did?) that those who drive market prices (them dirty active investors  ) are suffering from recency bias. Remember, the apocalyptic warnings during the GFC that resulted in share prices diving (didn't the S&P lose 50% or something?) because they expected earnings to be hit for several years. In the end prices rebounded pretty quickly considering and the rise has been pretty meteoric until early this year. Is the market expecting the same this time around, I think it just might be because from where I sit the risks are hard to quantify and certainly hard to justify when the S&P is down just 10% or so from the peak. Interesting to look at historic bond yields too. Back in 2008 the 10 year UK Gilts were over 3% (base rate fell to 0.5%), and now they're under 0.2% (base rate is at 0.1%). That implies the markets were expecting rate rises back in GFC but now they expect stimulus measures to keep rates hovering around 0% for the foreseeable future. Is that realistic? Far too little upside in P2P but plenty of downside (if only from the lack of liquidity) given the uncertainty at present. No, it took years for dividends and indexes to recover. But the FTSE 100 remains over 15% below its 1999 level. No capital increase in 21 years (but dividends have been paid of course).
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Post by dan1 on May 31, 2020 8:43:09 GMT
Hmmm... you're a risk-junky IMO - I mean that in the nicest possible way I get the distinct feeling (and really, I have absolutely no expertise in investing - think I'd be here if I did?) that those who drive market prices (them dirty active investors ) are suffering from recency bias. Remember, the apocalyptic warnings during the GFC that resulted in share prices diving (didn't the S&P lose 50% or something?) because they expected earnings to be hit for several years. In the end prices rebounded pretty quickly considering and the rise has been pretty meteoric until early this year. Is the market expecting the same this time around, I think it just might be because from where I sit the risks are hard to quantify and certainly hard to justify when the S&P is down just 10% or so from the peak. Interesting to look at historic bond yields too. Back in 2008 the 10 year UK Gilts were over 3% (base rate fell to 0.5%), and now they're under 0.2% (base rate is at 0.1%). That implies the markets were expecting rate rises back in GFC but now they expect stimulus measures to keep rates hovering around 0% for the foreseeable future. Is that realistic? Far too little upside in P2P but plenty of downside (if only from the lack of liquidity) given the uncertainty at present. No, it took years for dividends and indexes to recover. But the FTSE 100 remains over 15% below its 1999 level. No capital increase in 21 years (but dividends have been paid of course). No, the markets rebounded remarkably quickly considering the halving of prices. How long did it take US stocks to recover following the Wall St crash? Stocks took less than 5 years to rebound following GFC. No-one seriously measures world stocks based on the FTSE100 - it's remarkable because it's so concentrated in sectors like finance (remember 2007/8 was a financial crash), mining, oil & gas, not to mention housebuilders, airlines etc.... not exactly representative.
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Post by elephantrosie on May 31, 2020 13:27:23 GMT
may i ask what are the bank accounts that you are using now? Sorry, you didn't ask me but these seem quite good...
Is it tempting to go back in? Like many posters .... <snip> I have filled up to max protection limits with RCI Bank, Coventry BS, Skipton BS, Aldermore, Investec, and I have even stuffed some cash into Premium Bonds. I am still expecting ... <snip> thanks. so lazy to open new accounts, but i have no choice now. slowly opening one by one....
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michaelc
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Say No To T.D.S.
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Post by michaelc on May 31, 2020 13:28:30 GMT
The biggest thing I've learned since getting burned in p2p is FCA regulation/authorisation/whatever essentially means not very much or at least nowhere near as much as I thought it did.
The are a few more hoops to jump through but as long as you've generally been a good boy in the past you can get the FCA fairly easily.
So even though the investor might not be dealing with crooks (although you might), you may well be dealing with tiny businesses well out of their depth dealing with huge amounts of deposits and a large loan book.
I am now extremely wary of any deposit taking company that doesn't have FSCS protection.
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Post by df on May 31, 2020 16:55:59 GMT
The biggest thing I've learned since getting burned in p2p is FCA regulation/authorisation/whatever essentially means not very much or at least nowhere near as much as I thought it did. The are a few more hoops to jump through but as long as you've generally been a good boy in the past you can get the FCA fairly easily. So even though you might not be dealing with crooks (although you might), you may well be dealing with tiny businesses well out of their depth dealing with huge amounts of deposits. I am now extremely wary of any deposit taking company that doesn't have FSCS protection. Yes, it's better to be on a safer side. I'm staying with p2p platforms I'm already in, but wouldn't get involved with any new ones in foreseen future. I agree, FCA authorisation proved to be quite useless (they granted Lendy full authorisation when it was obvious that the loan book was already in serious crisis). I'm also of the opinion (many will disagree) that by now we could be in a better position if FCA didn't interfere when Collateral went into administration.
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Post by elephantrosie on May 31, 2020 23:53:57 GMT
The biggest thing I've learned since getting burned in p2p is FCA regulation/authorisation/whatever essentially means not very much or at least nowhere near as much as I thought it did. The are a few more hoops to jump through but as long as you've generally been a good boy in the past you can get the FCA fairly easily. So even though the investor might not be dealing with crooks (although you might), you may well be dealing with tiny businesses well out of their depth dealing with huge amounts of deposits and a large loan book. I am now extremely wary of any deposit taking company that doesn't have FSCS protection. agree.
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Post by elephantrosie on May 31, 2020 23:55:14 GMT
The biggest thing I've learned since getting burned in p2p is FCA regulation/authorisation/whatever essentially means not very much or at least nowhere near as much as I thought it did. The are a few more hoops to jump through but as long as you've generally been a good boy in the past you can get the FCA fairly easily. So even though you might not be dealing with crooks (although you might), you may well be dealing with tiny businesses well out of their depth dealing with huge amounts of deposits. I am now extremely wary of any deposit taking company that doesn't have FSCS protection. Yes, it's better to be on a safer side. I'm staying with p2p platforms I'm already in, but wouldn't get involved with any new ones in foreseen future. I agree, FCA authorisation proved to be quite useless (they granted Lendy full authorisation when it was obvious that the loan book was already in serious crisis). I'm also of the opinion (many will disagree) that by now we could be in a better position if FCA didn't interfere when Collateral went into administration. agree too. im also staying with all p2p platforms that i am already with. just not depositing new money. might do so with AC quick access acc
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angrysaveruk
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Post by angrysaveruk on Jun 1, 2020 8:57:58 GMT
It depends what you think is going to happen next. If you believe that the economic effects of this are yet to come then the answer is definitely NO. If you think we are on the upward path now and things are going to improve then possibly. Personally I believe the global economy is going to under go some major structural changes and it is unlikely things will return to where we were before XMas for quite some time.
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ceejay
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Post by ceejay on Jun 1, 2020 10:44:31 GMT
It depends what you think is going to happen next. If you believe that the economic effects of this are yet to come then the answer is definitely NO. If you think we are on the upward path now and things are going to improve then possibly. Personally I believe the global economy is going to under go some major structural changes and it is unlikely things will return to where we were before XMas for quite some time. Agreed. What I will add is that the only thing I am certain of is uncertainty - and any plan I make has to take account of this, much like a project plan subject to uncontrollable inputs: flexibility is key. As far as financial investments are concerned, that means that access and liquidity become even more important than usual. Which doesn't look too good from the POV of many P2P offerings! It might sound like I'm painting myself into a Cash-only corner, but that's not right either: one of the many scenarios is one where stock markets recover and inflation increases (ok, unlikely to be rampant but still) and cash holdings merely devalue. So for now I'm holding onto most S&S while increasing cash holdings. I would love to find some corners of the P2P world that I could trust with a modest wedge to get those average returns up, but I'm not sure what they are.
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Post by bikeman on Jun 1, 2020 14:56:41 GMT
Judging by the massive queues at IKEA I'd say the feared job losses have been staved off for the time being by the furlough scheme and there is a pent up demand for spending (and credit).
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Post by elephantrosie on Jun 1, 2020 15:03:46 GMT
Judging by the massive queues at IKEA I'd say the feared job losses have been staved off for the time being by the furlough scheme and there is a pent up demand for spending (and credit). i also think likewise
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Post by bikeman on Jun 1, 2020 15:07:37 GMT
No, it took years for dividends and indexes to recover. But the FTSE 100 remains over 15% below its 1999 level. No capital increase in 21 years (but dividends have been paid of course). No, the markets rebounded remarkably quickly considering the halving of prices. How long did it take US stocks to recover following the Wall St crash? Stocks took less than 5 years to rebound following GFC. No-one seriously measures world stocks based on the FTSE100 - it's remarkable because it's so concentrated in sectors like finance (remember 2007/8 was a financial crash), mining, oil & gas, not to mention housebuilders, airlines etc.... not exactly representative. My SIPP and ISA's (mainly multi-index funds) are now fully recovered since 21 Feb.
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Post by elephantrosie on Jun 2, 2020 12:38:38 GMT
Moneybox lisa opened today.
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). I prefer to exercise patience for now. I might restore the level of my holdings in AC, RS and some others in future depending how the things pan out.
) are suffering from recency bias. Remember, the apocalyptic warnings during the GFC that resulted in share prices diving (didn't the S&P lose 50% or something?) because they expected earnings to be hit for several years. In the end prices rebounded pretty quickly considering and the rise has been pretty meteoric until early this year. Is the market expecting the same this time around, I think it just might be because from where I sit the risks are hard to quantify and certainly hard to justify when the S&P is down just 10% or so from the peak.
