Post by tjtl on Jun 2, 2020 15:11:11 GMT
There are some interesting points made above: when I started the thread, it was intended as slightly tongue-in-cheek, however my thinking has moved on and now am reassessing whether actually IT IS sensible to cancel sell orders and even think about some limited reinvesting.
As others have commented it is a balance of risk and reward. But it isn’t the case that all platforms now carry the same risk.
There seems to me to be two categories of risk- the first is the risk to the platform- bluntly will the platform survive , have the management teams shown themselves sufficiently competent and flexible, to deal with unprecedented levels of uncertainty, and are likely going to be able to deal with scenarios that have the potential to be even more significantly challenging.
And the second category of risk is whether or not the platforms survive, will our money on the platforms survive or will they get eaten up in losses.
I know there are posters who are absolutely convinced that all P2P sites will crash and burn, and that we haven’t begun to see the economic carnage that is about to be unleashed. I don’t share that view- I think all asset classes will suffer some more pain but the picture is getting a little clearer.
Looking at the sites I know I think that Ratesetter stands out as having made tough decisions, but ones that should mean the platform survives, and whilst the interest rates we are getting have been cut we are still getting a positive return in a zero-interest rate world. To me it merits support, and I have today cancelled my sell order (to be fair I was a long way down in the queue anyway so no big deal)
AC may fall into the same boat, and their fundraising launched today may give them more sustainability. I hate the pooling system, but I do expect it to survive.
FC are just beyond the pale. Their ramped iPO may mean it survives for a couple of years, but the model looks wrong, and the money on the platform is disappearing faster than a rabbit down a hole. I want out.
Relendex may survive, but some of the loans look increasingly suspect, so I expect some losses there. And same with Wellesley.
But all over, I am minded (and have actioned) cancelling selling, with AC and RS. Time will tell if I am mad. I do expect a small handful of sites will survive- time will tell if my instinct as to who they are is right.
As others have commented it is a balance of risk and reward. But it isn’t the case that all platforms now carry the same risk.
There seems to me to be two categories of risk- the first is the risk to the platform- bluntly will the platform survive , have the management teams shown themselves sufficiently competent and flexible, to deal with unprecedented levels of uncertainty, and are likely going to be able to deal with scenarios that have the potential to be even more significantly challenging.
And the second category of risk is whether or not the platforms survive, will our money on the platforms survive or will they get eaten up in losses.
I know there are posters who are absolutely convinced that all P2P sites will crash and burn, and that we haven’t begun to see the economic carnage that is about to be unleashed. I don’t share that view- I think all asset classes will suffer some more pain but the picture is getting a little clearer.
Looking at the sites I know I think that Ratesetter stands out as having made tough decisions, but ones that should mean the platform survives, and whilst the interest rates we are getting have been cut we are still getting a positive return in a zero-interest rate world. To me it merits support, and I have today cancelled my sell order (to be fair I was a long way down in the queue anyway so no big deal)
AC may fall into the same boat, and their fundraising launched today may give them more sustainability. I hate the pooling system, but I do expect it to survive.
FC are just beyond the pale. Their ramped iPO may mean it survives for a couple of years, but the model looks wrong, and the money on the platform is disappearing faster than a rabbit down a hole. I want out.
Relendex may survive, but some of the loans look increasingly suspect, so I expect some losses there. And same with Wellesley.
But all over, I am minded (and have actioned) cancelling selling, with AC and RS. Time will tell if I am mad. I do expect a small handful of sites will survive- time will tell if my instinct as to who they are is right.
