gmitz
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Post by gmitz on Aug 1, 2020 12:05:11 GMT
For those who are resistant to a secondary market, consider this... 1) The covid lockdown has reduced the value of all UK assets. 2) If you held the FTSE 250 right now and wanted to get out where you went in (lets say 22000), you could have a long wait. As you wait, you collect dividends. This is akin to your current AA position at par. 3) If you wanted to invest in the FTSE 250 right now, you would not pay 22000. This is akin to investing in the AA at par. A silly trade (as much as you wish the valuation was still par, as I do) 4) If you wanted to sell your FTSE 250 holding right now, you would have to accept the current market price (around 17000). If you did, you simply take over someone else's position (you do not affect those choosing not to sell!), and have the right to sell on again, or wait until the FTSE 250 recovers to 'par'. This is akin to the new AC secondary market; a liquidity option where sellers pay buyers to get out of their position by way of a discount. As others have pointed out, the AA is simply not worth par right now! But....the 'great news' is that the discount for these loans should be NOWHERE NEAR the 'discount' currently being offered by the FTSE 250, since these are LOANS (in a zero interest rate environment), which are property backed (property as an asset class seems to be holding up) and they are not perpetual (you still have the option of holding until maturity to get your money back). Hope it helps. ....not if the property is a castle in Scotland
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alender
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Post by alender on Aug 1, 2020 12:08:14 GMT
Capital repayments & Interest payments are based on total investment held, the withdrawal queue has no impact on that!
Incorrect, as is also dependent on the number of people in the withdraw queue and the total holding of those in the withdraw queue, the number of people in the withdraw queue will increase therefore decreasing the payments for those already in the queue.
Why would less new money come in if an asset is fairly priced rather than at a premium? Surely the reverse?
Currently new money is entering the AAs, i.e. people buying in at Par, with the SM it makes no sense to buy in at Par when you can buy in at a discount therefore stopping/reducing the new money into the AAs, for reference I am referring to new money/funds as additional funds in the AAs, not the same funds passed between different people via the SM.
Regardless of the existence of an SM or not, it makes no sense to buy in at par. Anyone doing so is making a poor decision, which you seem to want to encourage. Are there figures anywhere of how much new money (i.e. not just loan repayments) is entering the AA accounts currently? I would agree. for me it makes no sense buying in a Par but it is happening, I have not checked amounts but it has been quoted on this Forum. I guess some people may want to put it in an ISA (from comments made at the start of the lockdown) and take the risk offset by the increase interest and tax allowance.
However why it is happening is not the point the fact is that it will substantially reduce because of the SM.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Aug 1, 2020 12:08:20 GMT
Am I imagining things, or did it say somewhere that when the SM is enabled FIFO will apply to the non-discounted queue?
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Post by davee39 on Aug 1, 2020 12:26:04 GMT
Am I imagining things, or did it say somewhere that when the SM is enabled FIFO will apply to the non-discounted queue? It did, back in march. But that can only happen when there is liquidity in the accounts and relies on sales of loans to new investors, so not just yet. Overall there has been a strange set of arguments going on. The main purpose of the SM is to allow someone desperate for cash to escape at a discount. It has been suggested that the selling queue could increase due to arbitrage. This could indeed happen if people not currently selling suddenly join the selling queue in order to buy at a discount and then re-sell. This is unlikely to be significant. - The highest discounts are expected one the market opens, yet it take months to realise cash for re-investment - New money will be needed to take out the sellers, even if the purchased holdings are immediately re-offered for withdrawal the net withdrawal queue will be unchanged, if some new money sticks and is not withdrawn the queue could drop - 3.75% return on investment looks very attractive compared with alternatives As has been indicated elsewhere, parts of the stock market offer good value and potential high yields. buying at a discount may suit some people as a long term hold, it is hardly a worthwhile arbitrage option. The outcome is therefore unknown, but I see the new market as a necessary feature in an extraordinary environment.
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Post by essexboy on Aug 1, 2020 12:26:12 GMT
I don't think that FIFO should apply, and I hope it does not, since that will distort the secondary market. IMHO, it should continue as pro rata.
I have valued the loan book using both my default and mark-to-market (MTM) models. The models both produce low single digit discounts, which also chimes with what Stuart is expecting. So, if anything significantly tasty arises, I'm going to be adding new money to the platform rather than reducing my holdings.
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on Aug 1, 2020 12:31:41 GMT
For those who are resistant to a secondary market, consider this... 1) The covid lockdown has reduced the value of all UK assets. 2) If you held the FTSE 250 right now and wanted to get out where you went in (lets say 22000), you could have a long wait. As you wait, you collect dividends. This is akin to your current AA position at par. 3) If you wanted to invest in the FTSE 250 right now, you would not pay 22000. This is akin to investing in the AA at par. A silly trade (as much as you wish the valuation was still par, as I do) 4) If you wanted to sell your FTSE 250 holding right now, you would have to accept the current market price (around 17000). If you did, you simply take over someone else's position (you do not affect those choosing not to sell!), and have the right to sell on again, or wait until the FTSE 250 recovers to 'par'. This is akin to the new AC secondary market; a liquidity option where sellers pay buyers to get out of their position by way of a discount. As others have pointed out, the AA is simply not worth par right now! While I've previously voiced concerns about how AC have handled all this (and would happily repeat them), I understand why an SM could be seen as sensible here and will be of benefit to many investors. That said, this line comparing the situation to the stock markets - as has previously been articulated by AC themselves - is complete nonsense and incredibly disingenuous. The choice of an informed investor to invest in the stock market vs. to invest in a blackbox P2P holding with no marketisation is incredibly different. While the underlying logic is sound, you can't simply retrospectively apply this markestised logic to the AC accounts and pretend it was always that way. It wasn't, and the goalposts are significantly changing. There has been a lot of discussion in the last few pages about AC holdings not being 'worth par' now. But this product was never meant to have a 'worth' in that sense. Whether this is of (net) benefit to investors will likely depend on each individual's circumstances; but anyone complaining about the material alteration in this offering compared to what they bought into has a very sound basis to their argument.
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Post by essexboy on Aug 1, 2020 12:43:19 GMT
For those who are resistant to a secondary market, consider this... 1) The covid lockdown has reduced the value of all UK assets. 2) If you held the FTSE 250 right now and wanted to get out where you went in (lets say 22000), you could have a long wait. As you wait, you collect dividends. This is akin to your current AA position at par. 3) If you wanted to invest in the FTSE 250 right now, you would not pay 22000. This is akin to investing in the AA at par. A silly trade (as much as you wish the valuation was still par, as I do) 4) If you wanted to sell your FTSE 250 holding right now, you would have to accept the current market price (around 17000). If you did, you simply take over someone else's position (you do not affect those choosing not to sell!), and have the right to sell on again, or wait until the FTSE 250 recovers to 'par'. This is akin to the new AC secondary market; a liquidity option where sellers pay buyers to get out of their position by way of a discount. As others have pointed out, the AA is simply not worth par right now! While I've previously voiced concerns about how AC have handled all this (and would happily repeat them), I understand why an SM could be seen as sensible here and will be of benefit to many investors. That said, this line comparing the situation to the stock markets - as has previously been articulated by AC themselves - is complete nonsense and incredibly disingenuous. The choice of an informed investor to invest in the stock market vs. to invest in a blackbox P2P holding with no marketisation is incredibly different. While the underlying logic is sound, you can't simply retrospectively apply this markestised logic to the AC accounts and pretend it was always that way. It wasn't, and the goalposts are significantly changing. Whether this is of (net) benefit to investors will likely depend on each individual's circumstances; but anyone complaining about the material alteration in this offering compared to what they bought into has a very sound basis to their argument. There has been a lot of discussion in the last few pages about AC holdings not being 'worth par' now. But this product was never meant to have a 'worth' in that sense. I totally get your concern. I'm am incredibly unhappy with some of the AC decisions as well, and I would love to redeem everything at par also. However, the 'comfort' of this investment has only been down to its accrual accounting nature, and illusion of liquidity. The world has changed, and we need to introduce a mark-to-market CHOICE (which is what the SM achieves), for those who were not expecting to be locked up in an 'access' account. In a MTM world, you must compare P2P with other risky assets, knowing that P2P should sit far lower on the risk-spectrum. To say that P2P is unrelated to other risk assets is pure delusion (caused by accrual accounting). Again though, I see fair value at only low single digits discounts.
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on Aug 1, 2020 12:51:42 GMT
I totally get your concern. I'm am incredibly unhappy with some of the AC decisions as well, and I would love to redeem everything at par also. However, the 'comfort' of this investment has only been down to its accrual accounting nature, and illusion of liquidity. The world has changed, and we need to introduce a mark-to-market CHOICE (which is what the SM achieves), for those who were not expecting to be locked up in an 'access' account. In a MTM world, you must compare P2P with other risky assets, knowing that P2P should sit far lower on the risk-spectrum. To say that P2P is unrelated to other risk assets is pure delusion (caused by accrual accounting). Again though, I see fair value at only low single digits discounts. "To say that P2P is unrelated to other risk assets is pure delusion" - I'm not sure I understand this. What do you mean by 'unrelated'? My point is that this was an asset with no market, and is now becoming one with a market.* Thus, comparisons with other marketised assets are anachronistic. You can have a debate about the nature of the underlying assets and what they amount to (as I said the logic of this is sound), but I'm looking at this from a more legal perspective as to what was sold to consumers. In this regard, I would also dispute your suggestion that this "needs" to happen. Again, you seem to be looking at what is the most sensible solution for the majority of investors; whereas I am talking about a slightly different point. (*Also, for these purposes, it doesn't make sense to talk about "P2P" as a homogenous asset class. There are clearly very different offerings out there. My point relates entirely to the exact form of offering of AC's Access product.)
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Post by essexboy on Aug 1, 2020 13:14:14 GMT
I totally get your concern. I'm am incredibly unhappy with some of the AC decisions as well, and I would love to redeem everything at par also. However, the 'comfort' of this investment has only been down to its accrual accounting nature, and illusion of liquidity. The world has changed, and we need to introduce a mark-to-market CHOICE (which is what the SM achieves), for those who were not expecting to be locked up in an 'access' account. In a MTM world, you must compare P2P with other risky assets, knowing that P2P should sit far lower on the risk-spectrum. To say that P2P is unrelated to other risk assets is pure delusion (caused by accrual accounting). Again though, I see fair value at only low single digits discounts. "To say that P2P is unrelated to other risk assets is pure delusion" - I'm not sure I understand this. What do you mean by 'unrelated'? My point is that this was an asset with no market, and is now becoming one with a market.* Thus, comparisons with other marketised assets are anachronistic. You can have a debate about the nature of the underlying assets and what they amount to (as I said the logic of this is sound), but I'm looking at this from a more legal perspective as to what was sold to consumers. In this regard, I would also dispute your suggestion that this "needs" to happen. Again, you seem to be looking at what is the most sensible solution for the majority of investors; whereas I am talking about a slightly different point. (*Also, for these purposes, it doesn't make sense to talk about "P2P" as a homogenous asset class. There are clearly very different offerings out there. My point relates entirely to the exact form of offering of AC's Access product.) We're very much on the same side sir, but focusing to two different aspects as you say. 1) I am absolutely focusing on the best / most realistic solution for MOST investors; the SM. When I say (un)related, I mean (un)correlated of course. 2) You seem to be suggesting that the access accounts were 'mis-sold', if you cannot then get out or have to offer a discount to do so. I would totally support this view (as I say, I would love to get out at par)! But I just don't know what can realistically be done about it at this stage.
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on Aug 1, 2020 13:21:20 GMT
We're very much on the same side sir, but focusing to two different aspects as you say. 1) I am absolutely focusing on the best / most realistic solution for MOST investors; the SM. When I say (un)related, I mean (un)correlated of course. 2) You seem to be suggesting that the access accounts were 'mis-sold', if you cannot then get out or have to offer a discount to do so. I would totally support this view (as I say, I would love to get out at par)! But I just don't know what can realistically be done about it at this stage. For sure - and I'm only trying to make the quite narrow point that I'm making regarding anachronistic translation of a marketised logic to a non-marketised product. Any investor feeling disadvantaged by that has every right to feel aggrieved, and I find the comparison with the stock markets particularly frustrating given that it's what AC themselves tried to tout on here and in their emails in a pretty disingenuous way. But no I'm absolutely not making any specific allegations about mis-selling or otherwise - this wouldn't be the correct legal terminology, and I would never be so reckless as to make such accusations on a public forum in any case!
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theta
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Post by theta on Aug 1, 2020 13:37:08 GMT
Any investor feeling disadvantaged by that has every right to feel aggrieved, and I find the comparison with the stock markets particularly frustrating given that it's what AC themselves tried to tout on here and in their emails in a pretty disingenuous way. Why would someone feel disadvantaged? Everyone is free to ignore the SM and wait for the eventual redemption at par (or default in a worst case scenario). There is no M2M at the clearing price of the SM and associated margin call or anything like that. It's entirely optional, and so it could either be helpful if someone *needs* to get out, something impossible in the absence of the SM in the current environment, or irrelevant, but in no case anyone is worse off than if it didn't exist at all.
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on Aug 1, 2020 13:48:23 GMT
Why would someone feel disadvantaged? Everyone is free to ignore the SM and wait for the eventual redemption at par (or default in a worst case scenario). There is no M2M at the clearing price of the SM and associated margin call or anything like that. It's entirely optional, and so it could either be helpful if someone *needs* to get out, something impossible in the absence of the SM in the current environment, or irrelevant, but in no case anyone is worse off than if it didn't exist at all. This was debated in some detail a while ago, so I'm reluctant to drag it all up again. But, just briefly: As I've said, this will depend on individual circumstances and is about the entire AC 'solution' to the current issues (I don't think you can separate the introduction of the SM from the AC decision not to just process the withdrawal queue in order of request as, for example, RS is doing* - this is the whole reason why an SM is 'needed' because currently no processing of the queue is really happening, only the return of repayments). There will be investors, for example, who were right at the very front of the queue so, with a simple queuing system, might've got their money out pretty quickly even with minimal liquidity available. Their only option now to achieve the same effect is likely to sell at a discount. Again, I think you're looking at this from the perspective of "this is very helpful for the majority of investors". I am purely making a point about the transformation of the product which, if it does disadvantage any investors, those investors would have every right to feel aggrieved. My point is not that AC should not be doing this; or that having a simple queue system would be ' better' somehow. If even only one investor was disadvantaged from this, they would have a very solid basis to their concern. (*Before anyone jumps on this, no this is not a suggestion that RS is somehow doing things well or that everyone is delighted with how things are going over with RS!)
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dead-money
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Post by dead-money on Aug 1, 2020 14:05:54 GMT
Trying to bring the discussion back to the mechanics of the new facility rather than the rights or wrongs of AC having implemented it.
Firstly, will the nature of the withdrawal queue change in any way? FIFO, Pro-rata to holdings, pro-rata to withdrawals, Flat or what?
Secondly, will those wishing to invest into the Access account be able to set a discount at which they're willing to buy?
That's what interests me and hopefully will be explicitly covered by AC before next Friday.
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johni
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Post by johni on Aug 1, 2020 16:39:37 GMT
I don't think that FIFO should apply, and I hope it does not, since that will distort the secondary market. IMHO, it should continue as pro rata. I have valued the loan book using both my default and mark-to-market (MTM) models. The models both produce low single digit discounts, which also chimes with what Stuart is expecting. So, if anything significantly tasty arises, I'm going to be adding new money to the platform rather than reducing my holdings. No FIFO should definately apply as this will stop flippers in their tracks and allow the secondary market to have its true function of allowing those desperate for their cash access to it.
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blender
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Post by blender on Aug 1, 2020 18:11:16 GMT
I don't think that FIFO should apply, and I hope it does not, since that will distort the secondary market. IMHO, it should continue as pro rata. I have valued the loan book using both my default and mark-to-market (MTM) models. The models both produce low single digit discounts, which also chimes with what Stuart is expecting. So, if anything significantly tasty arises, I'm going to be adding new money to the platform rather than reducing my holdings. No FIFO should definately apply as this will stop flippers in their tracks and allow the secondary market to have its true function of allowing those desperate for their cash access to it. Personally I would like to retain the pro-rata withdrawals and have the SM, but I accept that the SM will replace pro-rata and that withdrawals should go back to what they were before this emergency, FIFO. Otherwise it will not go back. Removing pro-rata will increase the offerings at a discount for a while - but at least it is in the hands of the market among lenders, and not an arbitrary system imposed by the platform. I think that AC will wish to stand back from that as soon as they can, and will let us sort ourselves out.
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