sl75
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Post by sl75 on Aug 22, 2020 20:11:51 GMT
Anyone got a view at what the discount to sell is likely to settle at is say a months time? I do want to raise some cash but close to 6% loss to do so at present is more than I want to lose My own view is that it'll take at least 3 months to fully settle.
Whilst my crystal ball is very hazy, 1 month from now, it might perhaps be down to 3-4% discounts, but by this time next year, I'd either expect it back at par (just as most tradeable MLA loans are already), or for the MLA market to be demanding similar discounts to the access accounts. Right now, some MLA loans are now trading at lower discounts than they were in Jan/Feb (perhaps due to the new website giving better visibility to potential buyers of discounted loan units, or perhaps due to an "overshoot" of the stabilisation it's had during the last few months).
[Disclosure: I've been buying quite heavily at discounts 6% and larger, which I personally consider "extraordinarily large" at this time]
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dead-money
Rocket to the Moon
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Post by dead-money on Aug 24, 2020 7:59:39 GMT
£1,000 buy / sell
Thu 20/08/20 9am 5.7% / 6.0%
5pm 5.8% / 6.0%
Fri 21/08/20 9am 5.8% / 5.9% 5pm 5.8% / 5.9%
Sat 22/08/20 9am 5.6% / 5.9%
5pm 5.7% / 5.9%
Sun 23/08/20 9am 5.8% / 5.9% 5pm 5.80% / 5.96%
Mon 24/08/20 9am 5.80% / 5.96%
5pm 5.60% / 5.74% (5.7% to sell £500, 5.8% to sell £5000)
Tue 25/08/20 9am % / % 5pm % / %
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Post by drphil on Aug 24, 2020 13:33:00 GMT
£1,000 buy / sell
Thu 20/08/20 9am 5.7% / 6.0%
5pm 5.8% / 6.0%
Fri 21/08/20 9am 5.8% / 5.9% 5pm 5.8% / 5.9%
Sat 22/08/20 9am 5.6% / 5.9%
5pm 5.7% / 5.9%
Sun 23/08/20 9am 5.8% / 5.9% 5pm 5.80% / 5.96%
Mon 24/08/20 9am 5.80% / 5.96%
5pm % / %
Thanks for these dead-money, I'm finding them very useful.
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dead-money
Rocket to the Moon
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Post by dead-money on Aug 24, 2020 22:34:02 GMT
A mathematical exercise.
£1000 invested in each of QAA, 30D and 90D eighteen months ago with interest reinvested, would have been QAA £1061, 30D £1073, 90D £1084 Average UK savings rate 2019/2020 was 1.25% over that time?
Selling those amounts at various discounts would give back:
Discount repaid deduction
QAA 30D 90D
6.00% £ 998 -£63 £1,009 -£64 £1,019 -£65
5.50% £1,003 -£58 £1,014 -£59 £1,024 -£59
5.00% £1,008 -£53 £1,019 -£53 £1,029 -£54
4.50% £1,013 -£47 £1,025 -£48 £1,035 -£48
4.00% £1,019 -£42 £1,030 -£42 £1,040 -£43
3.50% £1,024 -£37 £1,035 -£37 £1,046 -£37
3.00% £1,029 -£31 £1,041 -£32 £1,051 -£32
2.50% £1,035 -£26 £1,046 -£26 £1,057 -£27
2.00% £1,040 -£21 £1,052 -£21 £1,062 -£21
1.50% £1,045 -£15 £1,057 -£16 £1,067 -£16
1.00% £1,051 -£10 £1,062 -£10 £1,073 -£10
0.50% £1,056 -£5 £1,068 -£5 £1,078 -£5
0.00% £1,061 £- £1,073 £- £1,084 £-
So anything below 6% returns money invested 18 mths ago, anything below 4% discount still betters a bank savings account ? (Or maybe my maths is completely off...)
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SteveT
Member of DD Central
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Post by SteveT on Aug 25, 2020 8:41:01 GMT
I suspect available discounts may increase a little this morning ... !
Edit: Already now need to offer 9.5% discount to sell £1000 immediately (9.45am)
Edit 2: Now 11% (9.50am)
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dead-money
Rocket to the Moon
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Post by dead-money on Aug 25, 2020 8:50:59 GMT
I suspect available discounts may increase a little this morning ... ! Edit: Already now need to offer 9.5% discount to sell £1000 immediately (9.45am) Edit 2: Now 11% (9.50am) Yep, what's going on buy @ 6%, but sell @ 9 - 11% or more
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SteveT
Member of DD Central
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Post by SteveT on Aug 25, 2020 8:53:02 GMT
I suspect available discounts may increase a little this morning ... ! Edit: Already now need to offer 9.5% discount to sell £1000 immediately (9.45am) Edit 2: Now 11% (9.50am) buy @ 6%, but sell @ 9 - 11% or more See p2pindependentforum.com/post/400812/thread
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Post by angel19 on Aug 25, 2020 8:59:42 GMT
A dangerous market as sellers try to offload before ring fencing is suspended. Anyone know when the new rules will be implemented. Presumably at that point discounts sellers offer will plummet closer to zero since the quality of the loans being bought/sold is much better.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Aug 25, 2020 9:02:23 GMT
A dangerous market as sellers try to offload before ring fencing is suspended. Anyone know when the new rules will be implemented. Presumably at that point discounts sellers offer will plummet closer to zero since the quality of the loans being bought/sold is much better. vital piece of information - when do we start selling only the good loans?
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ceejay
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Post by ceejay on Aug 25, 2020 9:03:54 GMT
A dangerous market as sellers try to offload before ring fencing is suspended. Anyone know when the new rules will be implemented. Presumably at that point discounts sellers offer will plummet closer to zero since the quality of the loans being bought/sold is much better. The email suggests (to me) that the new rules are implemented immediately, but that they will be applied to individual loans as and when their circumstances change from now on. So i wouldn't expect to see a cliff-edge change in the discount rate. But where we may end up is that the AAs get effectively split into two - a "good" part which is tradeable at something close to par and a "bad" part that you can't trade at all. ETA: If you knew what the split between those parts would be you could calculate a fair discount for what we have now...
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IFISAcava
Member of DD Central
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Post by IFISAcava on Aug 25, 2020 9:05:56 GMT
A dangerous market as sellers try to offload before ring fencing is suspended. Anyone know when the new rules will be implemented. Presumably at that point discounts sellers offer will plummet closer to zero since the quality of the loans being bought/sold is much better. The email suggests (to me) that the new rules are implemented immediately, but that they will be applied to individual loans as and when their circumstances change from now on. So i wouldn't expect to see a cliff-edge change in the discount rate. But where we may end up is that the AAs get effectively split into two - a "good" part which is tradeable at something close to par and a "bad" part that you can't trade at all. but how do you know how much unsellable you have? on that system you wont know until you cant sell anymore at the end, so hard to plan an appropriate discount. And what happens to existing sell orders that are to the value of your entire holding?
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SteveT
Member of DD Central
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Post by SteveT on Aug 25, 2020 9:09:44 GMT
The email suggests (to me) that the new rules are implemented immediately, but that they will be applied to individual loans as and when their circumstances change from now on. So i wouldn't expect to see a cliff-edge change in the discount rate. But where we may end up is that the AAs get effectively split into two - a "good" part which is tradeable at something close to par and a "bad" part that you can't trade at all. on that system you wont know until you cant sell anymore at the end, so hard to plan an appropriate discount. And what happens to existing sell orders that are to the value of your entire holding? Remember those little yellow warning triangles that briefly were evident when the AA SM first went live? IIRC, the pop-up message that appeared when you hovered over them said something like "£0 unavailable to withdraw" ...
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IFISAcava
Member of DD Central
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Post by IFISAcava on Aug 25, 2020 9:11:56 GMT
but how do you know how much unsellable you have? on that system you wont know until you cant sell anymore at the end, so hard to plan an appropriate discount. And what happens to existing sell orders that are to the value of your entire holding? Remember those little yellow warning triangles that briefly were evident when the AA SM first went live? IIRC, the pop-up message that appeared when you hovered over them said something like "£0 unavailable to withdraw" ... But say I have 20 sell instructions to the value of my holding will each one be changed to (say) 98%, or will the ones sold first stay at 100% and just the last ones become wholly untradeable?
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ceejay
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Post by ceejay on Aug 25, 2020 9:26:16 GMT
Remember those little yellow warning triangles that briefly were evident when the AA SM first went live? IIRC, the pop-up message that appeared when you hovered over them said something like "£0 unavailable to withdraw" ... But say I have 20 sell instructions to the value of my holding will each one be changed to (say) 98%, or will the ones sold first stay at 100% and just the last ones become wholly untradeable? Are you perhaps overthinking this? Surely it makes no difference to your sell instruction - they will all remain in place as they are. It's just that they will never be fully satisfied...
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Post by davee39 on Aug 25, 2020 9:28:54 GMT
I think this is fairly clear.
At present all loans are tradable so you are trading a package of > 500 loans and could sell out completely.
If a loan becomes untradeable, that part of your holding is likely to remain stuck indefinately, while trading continues on the rest
of the package.
In the short term I expect panic selling to provide another opportunity for flippers.
Interestingly interest will still be paid on these non tradable loans.
EDIT: Why do people think there should be a lowed discount because sales would only be 'the good stuff'. Any loan has the potential
to go bad at any time.
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