SteveT
Member of DD Central
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Post by SteveT on Aug 28, 2020 13:55:15 GMT
Call me over-cautious but, whilst "fair value" based on current asset valuations / loan default rates / PF cover might well be 5%-ish discount, that overlooks the fact that there's an awful lot more money already within the QAA, hoping to exit, than there likely is new money seeking to pile in (even at a decent discount).
If AC's email warning there MAY be some future loan lock-ins was enough to hit the market by 5% in minutes, I strongly suspect the stark reality of yellow warning triangles appearing and loans starting to become unsellable is likely to have a more significant and longer-lasting impact. My QAA holdings are very modest but, were I not happy to hold onto them long-term, I'd be inclined to exit whilst I can still do so cleanly!
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dead-money
Rocket to the Moon
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Post by dead-money on Aug 28, 2020 14:15:21 GMT
£5k Buy discount 8.1% £5k Sell discount 8.4% No more 11,10,9% buy discounts Reinvested interest payments in five days. Maybe no more 8,7,6,5% ?? As a buyer, I personally hope not. That said, I do hope that the prudent precautions regarding the PF as explained in the email have not been misunderstood and worried investors into selling at a discount. £5k buy discount dropped to 7.5% from 8% just prior to this mornings redemption payment. Probably reinvestment. A sign confidence. Next weeks interest payment reinvestment will be interesting. I think we worked out this week that were you have one or two counterparties to a buy / sell order it's other active investors. Where you have over 2000 or even 4000 it's the system working on behalf of the silent majority of depositors.
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dead-money
Rocket to the Moon
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Post by dead-money on Aug 28, 2020 14:19:33 GMT
Call me over-cautious but, whilst "fair value" based on current asset valuations / loan default rates / PF cover might well be 5%-ish discount, that overlooks the fact that there's an awful lot more money already within the QAA, hoping to exit, than there likely is new money seeking to pile in (even at a decent discount). If AC's email warning there MAY be some future loan lock-ins was enough to hit the market by 5% in minutes, I strongly suspect the stark reality of yellow warning triangles appearing and loans starting to become unsellable is likely to have a more significant and longer-lasting impact. My QAA holdings are very modest but, were I not happy to hold onto them long-term, I'd be inclined to exit whilst I can still do so cleanly! Yes, sells from my MLA holdings are still very slow and in small quantities; so the implication is there isn't much net new money flowing in, certainly not enough that AAs are increasing their loan holdings substantially.
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Post by stuartassetzcapital on Aug 28, 2020 16:13:42 GMT
If we had a belief that the target rates could not reasonably be expected to be paid then they would be lowered, that is the regulatory requirement. The target rates must include any uncovered (by the PF) losses as otherwise they overstate the total return. However, at present we see no requirement to adjust rates again and are content with the current target rates. I hope that is helpful.
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Post by drphil on Aug 28, 2020 16:59:25 GMT
If we had a belief that the target rates could not reasonably be expected to be paid then they would be lowered, that is the regulatory requirement. The target rates must include any uncovered (by the PF) losses as otherwise they overstate the total return. However, at present we see no requirement to adjust rates again and are content with the current target rates. I hope that is helpful. Thanks, Stuart, for continuing to engage with us on the forum. It is much appreciated.
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Post by gobuchul on Aug 28, 2020 19:01:25 GMT
If we had a belief that the target rates could not reasonably be expected to be paid then they would be lowered, that is the regulatory requirement. The target rates must include any uncovered (by the PF) losses as otherwise they overstate the total return. However, at present we see no requirement to adjust rates again and are content with the current target rates. I hope that is helpful. Thanks, Stuart, for continuing to engage with us on the forum. It is much appreciated. I agree, and it is one of the reasons why I am sitting tight and leaving my money in AC.
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Post by Harland Kearney on Aug 31, 2020 14:00:31 GMT
Thoughts for tommorrow guys, what do we think the interest payment will drop discounts too?
I've got some money discounted in the 6-4% range. Hope to sell a little, will be holding some investments in AC to term (or well forever as part of my portfilio) but desperately want to reduce exposure before any locks ins occur. Am I the only one who feels uncomfortable due to the unknown next "horse running" annoucement that might come out from them?
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dead-money
Rocket to the Moon
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Post by dead-money on Aug 31, 2020 16:19:39 GMT
Thoughts for tommorrow guys, what do we think the interest payment will drop discounts too? I've got some money discounted in the 6-4% range. Hope to sell a little, will be holding some investments in AC to term (or well forever as part of my portfilio) but desperately want to reduce exposure before any locks ins occur. Am I the only one who feels uncomfortable due to the unknown next "horse running" annoucement that might come out from them? I've had sell orders in place from 8% down to 5% all weekend. 7.5% sell was triggered last night, now sell discount is back up to 8.5%.
I don't see the passive holder interest reinvestment pushing the discount down to the 5.7% it reached previously, maybe 6.4% at best?
Accordingly to my back of an envelope calculations you don't lose money selling at 7.5% discount if you've been in QAA for 24 months, (even less so if in 30D or 90D previously). Also as iRobot pointed out, cashbacks and referral bonuses further offset for any deductions for exiting at a discount.
So I'm content to take that hit to reduce my exposure to future 'Don't Panic' announcements. All being well by Friday I'll have a third of what I had in January left in AC and aim is for that to be exclusively MLA, where I'm earning 7.20% after lender's fees, by year end, (ignoring the zombie PSA, GEA, GBBA holdings.)
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ian
Posts: 342
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Post by ian on Aug 31, 2020 18:17:30 GMT
Thoughts for tommorrow guys, what do we think the interest payment will drop discounts too? I've got some money discounted in the 6-4% range. Hope to sell a little, will be holding some investments in AC to term (or well forever as part of my portfilio) but desperately want to reduce exposure before any locks ins occur. Am I the only one who feels uncomfortable due to the unknown next "horse running" annoucement that might come out from them? Thoughts .... a few ten Bob traders might be able to trade a couple of grand our @ 2% and buy back in @10% with £160 of profit. Fine I’m not knocking them but when these access accounts were dreamt up and marketed as term accounts for this purpose. Seriously was this what was envisaged? Some will make money out of this fiasco, but it feels morally corrupt. Don’t get me wrong I occasionally trade CFDs / Spread bet etc So I might end up gaming the market😀 (wasn’t that why the rules of engagement were revised back in March SL?). Regardless I suspect the vast majority of lenders feel well and truly shafted.
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Post by bradley02 on Aug 31, 2020 18:17:53 GMT
Thoughts for tommorrow guys, what do we think the interest payment will drop discounts too? I've got some money discounted in the 6-4% range. Hope to sell a little, will be holding some investments in AC to term (or well forever as part of my portfilio) but desperately want to reduce exposure before any locks ins occur. Am I the only one who feels uncomfortable due to the unknown next "horse running" annoucement that might come out from them? I've had sell orders in place from 8% down to 5% all weekend. 7.5% sell was triggered last night, now sell discount is back up to 8.5%.
I don't see the passive holder interest reinvestment pushing the discount down to the 5.7% it reached previously, maybe 6.4% at best?
Accordingly to my back of an envelope calculations you don't lose money selling at 7.5% discount if you've been in QAA for 24 months, (even less so if in 30D or 90D previously). Also as iRobot pointed out, cashbacks and referral bonuses further offset for any deductions for exiting at a discount.
So I'm content to take that hit to reduce my exposure to future 'Don't Panic' announcements. All being well by Friday I'll have a third of what I had in January left in AC and aim is for that to be exclusively MLA, where I'm earning 7.20% after lender's fees, by year end, (ignoring the zombie PSA, GEA, GBBA holdings.)
Where is everyone today...Ah Last day of Eat Out To Help Out 50% discount. Regarding discounted rates, although reducing over the weekend, have remained at current rates, in my opinion, due to a lack of investor funds to buy and not a lack of interest. Barring any unforeseen circumstances, I feel that buying at 8%+ is over for good and soon buying/selling 3-5% will be the norm before reassurance and confidence returns with the commencement of new loans, ( New bridging loan this week ) the removal of fees, and increases in interest rates, something that Stuart has mentioned is the probable next direction for rates when it can be achieved, so todays discount rates, at a guess will be 5-6% tomorrow and 1-2% within 6 - 9 months. Happy Bank Holiday Monday Guys and Gals
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Post by davee39 on Aug 31, 2020 18:18:02 GMT
The interest to be paid will be little more than 0.3% of an Access Account holding. I do not see this having a noticable effect. The 'sell' discount for £100 has been stubbornly above 8% for the last week and I think we will need some good news on new loans/recoveries/forbearance for this to drop.
My inclinination is to consider the interest as 'lost money' and sell out a proportion of my holding to use it up.
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Mikeme
Member of DD Central
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Post by Mikeme on Aug 31, 2020 18:36:54 GMT
Thoughts for tommorrow guys, what do we think the interest payment will drop discounts too? I've got some money discounted in the 6-4% range. Hope to sell a little, will be holding some investments in AC to term (or well forever as part of my portfilio) but desperately want to reduce exposure before any locks ins occur. Am I the only one who feels uncomfortable due to the unknown next "horse running" annoucement that might come out from them? Thoughts .... a few ten Bob traders might be able to trade a couple of grand our @ 2% and buy back in @10% with £160 of profit. Fine I’m not knocking them but when these access accounts were dreamt up and marketed as term accounts for this purpose. Seriously was this what was envisaged? Some will make money out of this fiasco, but it feels morally corrupt. Don’t get me wrong I occasionally trade CFDs / Spread bet etc So I might end up gaming the market😀 (wasn’t that why the rules of engagement were revised back in March SL?). Regardless I suspect the vast majority of lenders feel well and truly shafted. You indicated that you were getting 12 to 14 % elsewhere. Just sell at 5% and in 6 months you are back to where you were and the stress reduction, on you and us will be much less!!!
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Post by korky on Aug 31, 2020 20:22:54 GMT
Thoughts for tommorrow guys, what do we think the interest payment will drop discounts too? I've got some money discounted in the 6-4% range. Hope to sell a little, will be holding some investments in AC to term (or well forever as part of my portfilio) but desperately want to reduce exposure before any locks ins occur. Am I the only one who feels uncomfortable due to the unknown next "horse running" annoucement that might come out from them? Hopefully around 6%, depends how much of the £700k interest payment is re-invested or auto re-invested.
What time do the interest payments usually get credited? 9am?
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Post by Ace on Aug 31, 2020 20:49:38 GMT
Thoughts for tommorrow guys, what do we think the interest payment will drop discounts too? I've got some money discounted in the 6-4% range. Hope to sell a little, will be holding some investments in AC to term (or well forever as part of my portfilio) but desperately want to reduce exposure before any locks ins occur. Am I the only one who feels uncomfortable due to the unknown next "horse running" annoucement that might come out from them? Hopefully around 6%, depends how much of the £700k interest payment is re-invested or auto re-invested.
What time do the interest payments usually get credited? 9am?
The timestamp for the last interest payment on my 90DAA was 01/08/2020, 00:44.
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Post by Harland Kearney on Aug 31, 2020 22:37:27 GMT
Thanks for discussion everyone,
Yes, I have been investing in AC since early 2017, so I could sell at 14% discount and not have lost any more than a couple of quid.
Of course, it's not as simple as that, cus of inflation and potential upside losses etc etc. Regardless, beggers can't be choosers!
I'm going to keep my discounts, the way I see it, no point selling myself out until the numbers are in and I can decide. I've got a step rate discount set up so I can try and capture the fairest discounts between 4-6% if we get to that point. If I sell non of my stuff tomorrow I'll likely bump the discount to the rough avg and downsize my exposure as planned.
Remember, only 2% of investors have set a discount higher than 0%, so the report said on the p2p news. This is why I feel the interest payment will make a significant impact tomorrow. Although if it didn't reach 6% I'd not be surprised, expect at least to dip to 6.5%
I agree with Dead Money comment about investors feeling shafted. I do feel somewhat disappointed although, in the long run, I think the SM is the only answer AC could give. Extremely selfishly if we were in a FIFO system I'd be out most likely by now in full, as I withdraw on the evening of the lock. But to everybody else, it would not much better than RS queue.
I imagine the confidence of new money coming in would have been near enough non-existent too. So for the greater good of the platform, the SM is likely to stop things going terribly wrong. That being said, I do not like the instrument the AA's have become, it entirely defeated the purpose, to begin with. Its nothing more than an income-focused fund it feels like based around business property/interests. (And I know many better funds with much less downside and above all else, ludicrously less platform risk)
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