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Post by Harland Kearney on Oct 30, 2020 20:01:58 GMT
We don't have the data to extrapolate this claim, but I honestly would not be surprised if the current amount in the DISCOUNT QUEUE is paper-thin and therefore is now getting driven down easily by those simply buying in at a discount by being repaid at PAR queue. People are commenting here asking "WHOS CRAZY TO BUY IN!?". Maybe people who are simply recycling money from repayments back in, then asking for more repayments lol. Easy pennies... Additionally like I linked to before, I don't want to be repaid money that is going to sit in a checking account if my portfolio is fully decked out.
Additionally, as rates are dropping quick, many investors maybe "waiting for it to go lower" rather than increasing selling pressure and are instead holding back from putting any discounts on the table. Zero data for this. I cannot see too many people adding new money to the platform (or P2P), the main factor for this drop-in discounts its certainly the large payouts yesterday, 227 repayments and 227 PF repayment. Recycling money so to speak. PURE SPECULATION THOUGH!
For the greater economy, in the long run, we aren't anywhere close to March sentiment. March was the end of the world, end of days! This time, we talk about the economy, which is starkly different compared to genuine doomsday convos seen on this board in the run-up to Mid March. Known knowns don't' spook investors, its surprises & events ol boy!
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dovap
Member of DD Central
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Post by dovap on Oct 30, 2020 23:49:00 GMT
soar again next week when the next 'lockdown' is announced ?
glad to have flogged off the sellable junk -
shame the zombie accounts can't be passed on
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Post by Harland Kearney on Oct 31, 2020 1:45:31 GMT
soar again next week when the next 'lockdown' is announced ? glad to have flogged off the sellable junk - shame the zombie accounts can't be passed on As long as Goverment support exists, I dont' see why it would; I think ACs action about the lender fee will become the next focal point by early days of 2021. Its a known factor the lockdowns and I think is fatiguing investors with the overwhelming poltical news, I would think that majority of people who are extreme fear/forced to sell have already found their way to the door by now.
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dead-money
Rocket to the Moon
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Post by dead-money on Oct 31, 2020 9:29:16 GMT
soar again next week when the next 'lockdown' is announced ? glad to have flogged off the sellable junk - shame the zombie accounts can't be passed on As long as Goverment support exists, I dont' see why it would; I think ACs action about the lender fee will become the next focal point by early days of 2021. Its a known factor the lockdowns and I think is fatiguing investors with the overwhelming poltical news, I would think that majority of people who are extreme fear/forced to sell have already found their way to the door by now. Markets are very much driven by fear, whether it's equities, P2P or toilet rolls.
The drop in the value of my equity holdings this week was more than the total value of my P2P investments. I guess that's part of the trade-off between liquidity and volatilty. 
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sl75
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Post by sl75 on Oct 31, 2020 12:02:26 GMT
Under a normal economy buying at par is reasonable. We are nowhere NEAR operating as a normal economy.
A 4% discount seems insanely low to me. There must be few sellers and many buyers, but it doesn't make sense to me.
Or are there some very clever buyers out there who see "value! at a 4% discount.
Most of the underlying loans are trading at par in the MLA, so it seems to me that's where the overall balance of market sentiment is.
Whether the balance of market sentiment is "right" or not is another matter, but that does seem to be where it is right now.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Oct 31, 2020 13:00:35 GMT
Under a normal economy buying at par is reasonable. We are nowhere NEAR operating as a normal economy.
A 4% discount seems insanely low to me. There must be few sellers and many buyers, but it doesn't make sense to me.
Or are there some very clever buyers out there who see "value! at a 4% discount.
Most of the underlying loans are trading at par in the MLA, so it seems to me that's where the overall balance of market sentiment is.
Whether the balance of market sentiment is "right" or not is another matter, but that does seem to be where it is right now.
well, the very low LTVs/higher interest rate loans will sell at par, for others there is more of a trickle at par at best. If you want significant liquidity for a diversified portfolio, you need to put modest discounts.
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kermie
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Post by kermie on Nov 2, 2020 7:08:57 GMT
Almost £10k available at 4.5%. I'm a little flummoxed.
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Post by Ace on Nov 2, 2020 8:05:20 GMT
Almost £10k available at 4.5%. I'm a little flummoxed. Why flummoxed? Presumably, reinvestment of interest paid yesterday has bought up all discounts above 4.5%.
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blender
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Post by blender on Nov 2, 2020 8:51:06 GMT
Almost £10k available at 4.5%. I'm a little flummoxed. I am also surprised that this bargain had not been snapped up.
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rscal
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Post by rscal on Nov 2, 2020 10:09:28 GMT
Almost £10k available at 4.5%. I'm a little flummoxed. I've seen figures of 'available' quoted in other posts but I don't know how these are compiled. Besides clicking on 'invest' and increasing your bid (except you can bid more than you have sat in your cash acc balance..) I don't understand how people have found this information out. Thnx.
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dead-money
Rocket to the Moon
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Post by dead-money on Nov 2, 2020 10:30:23 GMT
Almost £10k available at 4.5%. I'm a little flummoxed. I've seen figures of 'available' quoted in other posts but I don't know how these are compiled. Besides clicking on 'invest' and increasing your bid (except you can bid more than you have sat in your cash acc balance..) I don't understand how people have found this information out. Thnx.
Exactly that, had £10Ks trying to exit and £10Ks sat in cash account looking to invest.
Now have a third of my peak AC holdings of last year, money having been invested in equities instead; where it's currently showing a 4.5% paper loss, Oops...
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kermie
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Post by kermie on Nov 2, 2020 22:09:01 GMT
Almost £10k available at 4.5%. I'm a little flummoxed. Why flummoxed? Presumably, reinvestment of interest paid yesterday has bought up all discounts above 4.5%. I hadn't appreciated the monthly interest run would move the discount quite so much. Suggests that there is not massive depth to the market? Unsure what to make of it really.
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dave4
Member of DD Central
Cynical is a hobby not a lifestyle
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Post by dave4 on Nov 2, 2020 22:57:52 GMT
Provision fund paid out on 2 loans Quite a bit too, so plenty of lenders with money about too. Won't last long in my opinion, covid lockdown and brexit will push back above 5, may even see 7 .7.5% in my humble opinion.
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Post by Harland Kearney on Nov 3, 2020 1:19:29 GMT
Provision fund paid out on 2 loans Quite a bit too, so plenty of lenders with money about too. Won't last long in my opinion, covid lockdown and brexit will push back above 5, may even see 7 .7.5% in my humble opinion. If it were to do that, it would have done it already. Interestingly, rates were going down during the news. I think the majority of investors who haven't sold at steep discounts already are willing to stick around for the long run. Wind down their investments, strip them over time and avoid nasty discount eating unless they are in need to "margin call" for some reason surprise reason ect. Or take advantage of the discounts (as myself have with repayments) I predicted in my previous posts that we wouldn't see a increase in discounts due to the "Lockdown" and it seems like I was right, my crystal ball is working again! Priced in, investors are expecting it to last long, investors are expecting it to bite the wider economy. Investors don't fear what they can see danger miles away, its when the deer jumps into the headlights from 3 meters away he panics. However, AC performance during the harsher months have proven the platform as stable. (how stable idk, but it survired so there we go) Two things I can see moving prices up anywhere close to 7+ again would be, firstly a surprise AC email of some type (If a AA loan is locked up, this could trigger that kind of behaviour) Secondly, if fees are announced to be extended. Although I expect this to be touge in cheek and unpredictble. The fees are hurting MLA lenders more than AA holders. (Depends how you look at it, but MLA pay up front, we are paying from the PF I believe)
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dave4
Member of DD Central
Cynical is a hobby not a lifestyle
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Post by dave4 on Nov 3, 2020 8:10:16 GMT
Provision fund paid out on 2 loans Quite a bit too, so plenty of lenders with money about too. Won't last long in my opinion, covid lockdown and brexit will push back above 5, may even see 7 .7.5% in my humble opinion. If it were to do that, it would have done it already. Interestingly, rates were going down during the news. I think the majority of investors who haven't sold at steep discounts already are willing to stick around for the long run. Wind down their investments, strip them over time and avoid nasty discount eating unless they are in need to "margin call" for some reason surprise reason ect. Or take advantage of the discounts (as myself have with repayments) I predicted in my previous posts that we wouldn't see a increase in discounts due to the "Lockdown" and it seems like I was right, my crystal ball is working again! Priced in, investors are expecting it to last long, investors are expecting it to bite the wider economy. Investors don't fear what they can see danger miles away, its when the deer jumps into the headlights from 3 meters away he panics. However, AC performance during the harsher months have proven the platform as stable. (how stable idk, but it survired so there we go) Two things I can see moving prices up anywhere close to 7+ again would be, firstly a surprise AC email of some type (If a AA loan is locked up, this could trigger that kind of behaviour) Secondly, if fees are announced to be extended. Although I expect this to be touge in cheek and unpredictable. The fees are hurting MLA lenders more than AA holders. (Depends how you look at it, but MLA pay up front, we are paying from the PF I believe) I hope you are more correct than me. It would be good positive sign for investors if AC if the lender fee was removed. I wonder if when / if AC Start lending again how much appetite lenders will have ?.
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